@Zhukov44:
Since there are only 5 Axis shooters, the reason I don’t scramble is that your chances of getting diced in this particular battle are high. With the full commit you’re facing 7 shooters and 9 hits (DD CA 3 FIG 1 TB 1 SB, (CV)
I agree, too dicey. There’s considerably less risk in waiting for G2 to mop up this fleet.
But there are some cases where this scramble may not be a bad play or a bad risk.
Even with this full deployment Axis has a 5% chance of winning the battle and the average TUV swing is -9 less than w/o the scramble. That means the 30 ipcs in fighters invested will yield an average of -39 tuv dmg to Allies in 97. Not to mention that if Allies lose the average 2 fig 1 ac 1 dd (leaving just a cruiser in 97) Italy will lose 6-8 less ipcs to convoys Ita1.
So far the scramble looks good. But it looks less good if we compare it to waiting for the G2 Luftwaffe attack. If there is 1 ac 2 fig 1 dd 1 cru remaining in 97 (any less makes it a good target for an Ita1 counter), then Germany (assuming a strong deployment) should rarely lose more than 3 figs, which is a +26 swing.
So on paper, the math for scrambling Ita1 may not look quite as good as waiting for G2. But there might also be openings on the board that couldn’t be pursued (as vigorously) if Germany needs to devote the bulk of the Luftwaffe to counter 97.
[Edited to fix my math]
OK, so now you’re talking my language…
So no scramble, maybe Italy hits 1-2 times. With scramble, 3-4 hits, maybe 5 if combat goes two rounds.
What else would I want to do G2 that I would miss out… bomb London, presumably, with 3 bombers and I want a carrier to go with the German fleet to SZ 108 to convoy UK (though if I saved my battleship G1 and sank SZ106, maybe that’s not necessary). That leaves 3 each fighters and tacticals to get 5-6 hits left in SZ 97. That’s 2 rounds of combat and UK will hit… 2-4 hits? Or I have to bring bombers and/or more fighters… giving UK more money to spend.
So your +26 ipc swing isn’t quite right since I wouldn’t be able to bomb and convoy UK, right? And Italy misses +5 ipc for a N.O. for surface warships in the Med.