2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

and the dice gods say FU to me…LOL, couldn’t hit with a 3 or a 4…well my 90% wasn’t so good now was it…I think I may resign and not carry this dicing into next year…stay tuned. Office party today.

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 2

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 2

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 5 fighters and 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Politics - Germans
        Germans takes Political Action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese
            Germans succeeds on action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese: Changing Relationship for Germans and Chinese from Neutrality to War

    Combat Move - Germans
        2 bombers, 4 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 92 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to 92 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 mech_infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux

    Combat - Germans
        British scrambles 3 units out of Gibraltar to defend against the attack in 92 Sea Zone
        Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans attack with 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            French defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans, 1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from French with 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in 92 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the British Submerged
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/12 hits, 7.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/9 hits, 4.83 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the British, 1 destroyer owned by the British, 2 cruisers owned by the British, 3 fighters owned by the Germans, 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 1 carrier owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 3/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 4 fighters and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 4/4 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 3 fighters owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
            British win with 1 fighter and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -40
            Casualties for Germans: 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for British: 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
        Moving scrambled unit from 92 Sea Zone back to originating territory: Gibraltar

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Romania
        5 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Romania
        2 aaGuns moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        6 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from France to Yugoslavia
        1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 114 Sea Zone to Poland
        1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 submarine moved from 106 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Germans
        5 fighters placed in Western Germany
        3 infantry placed in France
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 46 PUs
        Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 51 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -4.50
British : 3.17
French : 1.00

Territory Summary for Germans :

Normandy Bordeaux : 1 flag, 2 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 mech_infantry
France : 1 flag, 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 3 infantry
Western Germany : 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 1 factory_major, 5 fighters, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
Romania : 2 aaGuns, 2 artilleries and 11 infantry
Poland : 1 aaGun, 3 armour, 4 artilleries and 24 infantry
Germany : 1 factory_major and 2 infantry
113 Sea Zone : 1 submarine
106 Sea Zone : 1 flag
Bulgaria : 1 flag
101 Sea Zone : 1 submarine
114 Sea Zone : 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
Yugoslavia : 1 flag, 6 armour and 3 mech_infantrys
Finland : 1 flag, 5 infantry

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 41 / 51
Russians : 37 / 37
Japanese : 29 / 42
Americans : 52 / 52
Chinese : 9 / 12
British : 30 / 37
UK_Pacific : 17 / 17
Italians : 17 / 17
ANZAC : 14 / 14
French : 8 / 0
Dutch : 7 / 0
Mongolians : 0 / 0
Neutral_Axis : 2 / 0
Neutral_Allies : 2 / 0
Neutral_True : 18 / 0

Dice Statistics:

Total
        1 was rolled 42 times
        2 was rolled 41 times
        3 was rolled 39 times
        4 was rolled 47 times
        5 was rolled 43 times
        6 was rolled 49 times
    Average roll : 3.594
    Median : 4.000
    Variance : 0.275
    Standard Deviation : 0.524
    Total rolls : 261

Null / Other
        2 was rolled 1 times
        6 was rolled 1 times
    Average roll : 4.000
    Median : 4.000
    Variance : 1.333
    Standard Deviation : 1.155
    Total rolls : 2

Germans Combat
        1 was rolled 14 times
        2 was rolled 12 times
        3 was rolled 19 times
        4 was rolled 19 times
        5 was rolled 21 times
        6 was rolled 22 times
    Average roll : 3.813
    Median : 4.000
    Variance : 0.744
    Standard Deviation : 0.862
    Total rolls : 107

British Combat
        1 was rolled 10 times
        2 was rolled 4 times
        4 was rolled 5 times
        5 was rolled 4 times
        6 was rolled 1 times
    Average roll : 2.667
    Median : 2.000
    Variance : 2.696
    Standard Deviation : 1.642
    Total rolls : 24

Italians Combat
        1 was rolled 6 times
        2 was rolled 4 times
        3 was rolled 8 times
        4 was rolled 10 times
        5 was rolled 6 times
        6 was rolled 7 times
    Average roll : 3.659
    Median : 4.000
    Variance : 0.521
    Standard Deviation : 0.722
    Total rolls : 41

French Combat
        1 was rolled 2 times
        2 was rolled 7 times
        3 was rolled 4 times
        4 was rolled 7 times
        5 was rolled 3 times
        6 was rolled 3 times
    Average roll : 3.423
    Median : 3.500
    Variance : 0.933
    Standard Deviation : 0.966
    Total rolls : 26

ANZAC Combat
        1 was rolled 1 times
        2 was rolled 1 times
        3 was rolled 1 times
        4 was rolled 1 times
        5 was rolled 2 times
    Average roll : 3.333
    Median : 3.500
    Variance : 0.400
    Standard Deviation : 0.632
    Total rolls : 6

Neutral_Allies Combat
        1 was rolled 1 times
        2 was rolled 4 times
        3 was rolled 2 times
        4 was rolled 1 times
        5 was rolled 2 times
        6 was rolled 3 times
    Average roll : 3.615
    Median : 3.000
    Variance : 0.569
    Standard Deviation : 0.755
    Total rolls : 13

Chinese Combat
        1 was rolled 3 times
        2 was rolled 2 times
        3 was rolled 1 times
        4 was rolled 2 times
        5 was rolled 2 times
        6 was rolled 6 times
    Average roll : 4.000
    Median : 4.500
    Variance : 1.022
    Standard Deviation : 1.011
    Total rolls : 16

Japanese Combat
        1 was rolled 5 times
        2 was rolled 6 times
        3 was rolled 4 times
        4 was rolled 2 times
        5 was rolled 3 times
        6 was rolled 6 times
    Average roll : 3.385
    Median : 3.000
    Variance : 0.533
    Standard Deviation : 0.730
    Total rolls : 26

Savegame

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 2

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 2

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 5 fighters and 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Politics - Germans
        Germans takes Political Action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese
            Germans succeeds on action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese: Changing Relationship for Germans and Chinese from Neutrality to War

    Combat Move - Germans
        2 bombers, 4 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 92 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to 92 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 mech_infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux

    Combat - Germans
        British scrambles 3 units out of Gibraltar to defend against the attack in 92 Sea Zone
        Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans attack with 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            French defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans, 1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from French with 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in 92 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the British Submerged
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/12 hits, 7.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/9 hits, 4.83 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the British, 1 destroyer owned by the British, 2 cruisers owned by the British, 3 fighters owned by the Germans, 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 1 carrier owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 3/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 4 fighters and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 4/4 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 3 fighters owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
            British win with 1 fighter and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -40
            Casualties for Germans: 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for British: 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
        Moving scrambled unit from 92 Sea Zone back to originating territory: Gibraltar

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Romania
        5 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Romania
        2 aaGuns moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        6 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from France to Yugoslavia
        1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 114 Sea Zone to Poland
        1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 submarine moved from 106 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Germans
        5 fighters placed in Western Germany
        3 infantry placed in France
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 46 PUs
        Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 51 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -4.50
British : 3.17
French : 1.00

Savegame

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

Hi Jim,

I took a look at the map and I can tell you, this kind of aggressiveness is not beneficial for the Axis for 2 reasons:

1. 90% odds is a deceptive number. I would see the battle outcome as follows
   From bottom to top percentiles:
   1-10: Total fail, Allies win
   11-30: Phyrric victory. Axis may have won this battle but the Luftwaffe is crippled. This causes way more trouble than the fleet in 92 could have caused.
   31-70: Well, not sure who is better now. You may have eliminated a threat but lost plenty of planes. You were supposed to by 15+ fast movers that march towards Moscow and you bought zero.
   71-100: That went well, the Axis are ahead now.

If you look at the outcomes like this, you are a 2 to 1 underdog to come out ahead after this attack. In addition, the top and bottom 30% are not equal. Top 30 give you an edge but there is LOTS to do still, bottom 30% and you are wrecked.

2. The battle did not give you major strategic gains even if you won. You always have to consider the strategic implications this battle could have. You can take a look at my 2nd game I played vs Simon this year. I made the same attack at 92, too but with the following differences.

• I had 2 subs in 91 that could attack
• Odds were 100%
• Winning the battle would give my Gib AND Egypt.
  –> I went for it, lost 1 plane more than I should have, got Gib AND Egypt and Simon resigned in turn 2

The problem here, in your game, was: There weren’t any major strategic gains on the table.
You would have neither gotten Gob nor Egypt with that move and that makes a HUGE difference.
IF you go for such a risky battle, the reward must be more than just killing the fleet. If it is not, the attack is not a good idea.

Bottom line: I would say you can be happy that MARTI made it easy for you. Axis are screwed now and you can resign. Worse outcome would have been if you would have hit in round 3 in that battle. Then you would have won with lousy bomber remaining and would have fought a long uphill battle that would have ended in defeat after a long misery.

good analysis…you take this way deeper and with much more thought than I do and this is why you have such a consistently strong record…You are right. I would have been happy with killing his fleet for the loss of 6 fighters which I purchased to replace the ones I expected to lose. losing all aircraft and not even taking out the Brit trn was more than I could bare…appreciate your analysis

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

And btw: DON’T put your boats in 114 after G1 but in 113. In this case, UK would not have been in the position to make such a greedy move in UK1, as a G2 sea lion with 1 TT would be on the table in that case, plus a G3 sealion would have become a bigger threat, too.

this makes sense as well, recently I have been bringing two extra G inf onto the R border for a G2 attack into Russia but the G2/G3 sea lion threat might be better at keeping the UK spread out.