Well concerning the rule in question it all seems sound and I agree with it.
That being said. How does it actually effect the game?
By going down this path you have done a few things.
#1 You have forced a G4 attack from Germany into Russia. (Germany is staging their forces in G3 to take advantage of the Italian moves on I2)
#2 You have freed up Russia on R3 to move into the middle East to take Iraq. (They are no longer Neutral)
#3 Before the main attack from Germany comes storming in, Russia has had 3 full build turns. (Tipped your hand to Russia if you stage is Besarabia to go the southern route)
The main advantage of this plan IMO, is that Italy takes Besarabia. Besarabia is the key Territory to move into Southern Russia. It allows the Germans if they can stage into that territory one step closer with their INF, that is a big deal when looking at the tactical situation in Southern Russia. Most players go the northern route when invading Russia because the INF are one territory closer to Leningrad. Germany though wants to go South because of their NO’s but time and spacing of the board makes it harder to go South.
Obviously you can take both Eastern Poland and Besarabia with Italy and then reinforce Eastern Poland with a few German units to prevent the Russian counterattack in R3 against a Italian held territory with no German back up.
NOW
lets just say that on R1 Russia backs off all three border territories. Italy has it set up so they can take advantage on Italy Turn 1. Russia Turn 2 and they do not cover the 3 border territories. Italy on Turn 2 takes all three of them. Baltic States, Eastern Poland and Besarbia. That opens up a huge can of worms for the Germans to exploit on G3 to set up the G4 attack. (What to do in this case is an entire thread unto it self.) (Just checked the OOB Italy set up and they only have 2 tanks with in range of Russia on I2, so the most they can take is two territories and not all 3)
**Note to all Russian players **
DO NOT allow Italian to just walk into all three border territories. Sacrifice 1 INF in each space, take your lumps and make Italy Attack into them. Letting them “walk” in is to great an advantage for the Axis.
If Germany has tipped their hand that they are going all in on Sea Lion, never abandon the border territories and stage forces in them. Totally shut down any plan from Italian forces of taking one of your border territories.
Now if we look at the IPC impact of this move it is basically a wash.
Germany Gets 15 IPC from Russia on G1-3
Russia gets 10 IPC from Lend lease on R3 -4 because they are now at war.
Russia most likely gets Irag on R4 for 5 IPC. (2 for Iraq and 3 for NO’s)
So at the end of Russia turn 4. Germany and Russia have both gotten 15 IPC on NO’s.
**** THE BOTTOM LINE *****
IF Russia lets italy take Besarabia on I2 with their 2 tanks the Italians need to take it so Germany can reinforce on G3 OR invade themselves and blitz through. Besarabia is the key to this entire plan.