I would offer that you not look at Sea Lion as a “Fake” so much as a “Play Option”.
im not a football guys but this describes it well; “the ballcarrier in a true option running play is determined by reading the defensive alignment or the actions of defensive players.”
On turn G1, do your BB hop SZ111 move, buy the carrier, and a transport or two. This forces UK to turtle, they will need at least 6-10 additional men to have any chance of defending against all your planes.
If UK keeps SZ106, he needs to put that inf+tank onto UK to bolster the defense.
If UK buys a MIC with the intention of putting it in Egypt, a poor result during Taranto 97 or SZ 96 can become a disaster. Egypt is very hard to hold if Italy has anything left.
Now, with 29IPC, UK is in a very poor position. He needs at least 6I + 1F to create a reasonable defense, and he cannot reasonably assume that Germany is only bluffing.
If you do not set up Germany this way with a defensible and forward placed Navy with warships in SZ112 on turn 1, the chances of a successful sea lion plummet, as he can screen out SZ 112.
Another approach is to save all your money, tempt UK into making a foolish buy (MIC Egypt, etc) then buy the whole invasion force as a surprise. This will be especially devastating if they fail to buy anything turtly on UK1 and you SBR their factory, limiting what they can do to get ready.
On G2, if UK looks well defended, your invasion force can be used to attack Novogrod instead (though this is easy to screen out). Or, it can continue to threaten the UK and force further turtling.
You only spent on 2 transports. 14 IPCs for the ability to alternately invade, threaten or increase against UK or Russia is a bargain.
The key for Germany is to stay flexible and watch UK’s move. If they turtle, good, abandon your invasion plans. If they fail to properly buy and turtle, increase the pressure each turn.
The key tells for UK are that all the German planes must be stationed in WG or HB the turn before the intended attack, and all the armor and infantry they intend to use as cannon fodder must be on the coast as well. This ties up an immense attack force, so Germany will not gather these forces in anticipation unless they are going to actually attempt the invasion.
Another tip with UK is that we have all become used to using the fighters on Malta and Gibraltar and Med to attack Italian ships, whereas they can perfectly reasonably all return to the London Defense (then 6 infantry, 4 AAA 1 mech, 1 tank and ~6 fighters with no spend…)
The truly deadly sea lion comes when Italy joins and does a double attack. This is easy to read…and wastes too many turns to be faked.
It should also be mentioned that the UK is only worth the 8 IPCS. Even if Germany takes the UK, it can become a pyrrhic battle where a raging Russian and US will quickly emerge. Remember that the US immediately declares war in this one instance, and if you have no ready forces in SZ 101 you cannot take advantage of this development.
Good Luck.