Is Germany virtually guaranteed the odds G3 on sealion?

[dondoolee]

I only played this map 8 times, so I’m new to it, I also won’t be able to look at the board.for a few days.do my memory may be off.

By odds I mean at least 51% success rate.  And this assumes Paris falls t1 as the only prerequisite.

Here is how I see the board granting UK good luck, and Germany bad luck:

UK has all the men from Canada in.

buys 6 inf 1 fig t1.

Buys 9 inf 1 tank t2.

Has 3 fig to scramble (which forces Germany to buy an AC).

All German subs are cleared, the Bb is destroyed.

By turn 3 Germany had lost 6 planes (either in.an initial attack, or helping clear the med for Italy use one fighter for Italy)

Germany does not take Normandy territory t1, leaves Bulgaria, southern France, and Yugoslavia alone for Italy…this leaves Germany with leery income possible.

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

As for the other axis, if it matters:

Uk smashes Italy (bb destroyed, as well as Ethiopia, Tobruk, and the dd).  This forces the bomber and fighter in UK down to Africa…but leaves Italy in the worst shape assuming all rolls went England’s way.

Japan does not declare war on anybody (except maybe Russia) to keep the U.S. At limited production and two turns away from landing on the UK.

German odds, 55%…with all the breaks going U.K’s way big time in an unrealistic setting.  USA two turns out of position, and Germany may have 5 fighters and an AC the USA has to build up for.  Japan has the option to press Russia (on t1) or USA (t3) hard if that’s useful.

The only other option I see on this is to leave Italy / the med alone and keep the fig at bomber at home which seems like a pretty grim situation as well.  Which means if everything breaks perfect for England, she will have the odds in her favor, and give up the Mediterranean.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Sealion may work, but then Germany has no troops on the continent and Russia will have all its troops at the border ready to invade, while the US can build bombers to sink your transport fleet and prevent your troops from returning.

[Zhukov44]

I don’t want to risk the game on the Sea Lion unless I have 90%+.  And it’s tough to get those odds on G3 if Allies do everything right.  I imagine a G4 Sea Lion (following a G3 Scotland landing) would have better than 90% odds, but by that time Germany is in a bad position vis a vis Russia.

[knp7765]

Hey dondoolee,
I think you are not taking something else into account. While Germany may have a good chance of achieving Sealion round 3 in most circumstances, just how good a victory will it be for them? In a lot of instances, it may be a pyrrhic victory for Germany. I mean, say Germany takes London but only has a tank and a few planes left over. Sure they get to plunder London’s treasury, but like calvinhobbesliker said they will be weak on the continent and Russia will just be licking it’s chops.
I used to enjoy doing Sealion but in later games I rarely do that because unless everything goes right for Germany (no planes lost, good dice), it usually costs them too much so they lose in the long run.

[dondoolee]

Thanks for your reply’s, its nice getting advice from experts on this.  I get that some of the scenarios (esp. the 55% odds scenario) may be Pyrrhic.  To be honest most scenarios I’ve seen Germany is between a 66-85% chance for success.  My main concerns are:

1. Is England not supposed to try to negate the advantage?  Is it just supposed to try to make it too costly for Germany?  I say this mostly because that means the UK is forced to abandon the med, and send Indian fighters to London.  That seems like suicide too.   All Germany as to do G1 is not buy anything(or maybe buy one bomber) and you would have to abandon everything at no expense to Germany, and with a free gift to Italy.

2. Russia:  In the scenario I gave, Italy is getting max income. I’m used to seeing Germany land 1 fig in Tobruk and 1 SB in S. Italy from Eastern Europe…these are very dicey battles that may have to be fought. along with the It. Destroyer in the Med off of Malta. (a dicey Ethiopia may have to be fought too).  If England doesnt do good here, Italy will be a pretty impressive buffer against USSR while Germany reorients herself.  So far I see these battles as very dicey and very critical.

Even Worse if Germany has a lot of troops left, Russia cant do much because it’s a pain to overextend with Russia anyway, even with a weak Germany and Italy, those transports Germany has, makes it near impossible.  Maybe the US turning into a bomber factory helps (can the US land bombers? if its that critical, I bet the Axis could own Gib/Morocco by t3).

3. Japan:

Ever since AAR, I have never been the best Japanese player but anyway,  I don’t know if there is a “magic bullet strategy” Japan can do to really put the nail in the coffin.  My guess is, if you are going for Sealion, you have a weak Japan because you have to wait to declare war. But here are my crazy mostly untested thoughts on this:

a) Take the shortest path to Russia, str bomb a strongly fortified UK Pac to keep the production down.  This is what we have been doing every time we do sealion.  Usually its done by hitting China and Ignoring Russia until China is wiped out by t3 or t4.  But A direct t1 hit on Russia may be the better option (though that means I’m dealing with 24 inf and 2 AA for far east Russian territories). Set up to hit all the Islands by J3.  Either way, this path seems the safest way to coordinate with Germany.

b) Slightly more crazy:  Ignore the islands turn 3 and try to wipe out UK Pac by t3.  This would completley eliminate the UK on t3.  If its doable, that may be worth it.  This opens up a path to Russia and Axis NO’s.

c) insane:  Throw everything at the US t3.  Is this possible?  has this been tried?  I don’t think this could work, I’m ust throwing it out there.  If Japan starts out with enough initial material odds that can reach the US on J3/J4, this may be doable.  Either way, this means its Russia alone vs Germany/Italy.  It takes time for Russia to drive to germany.  If Japan hits the US, Germany is guaranteed to have transports no matter what, and time is on Germanys side. and as time wears on no matter how much the UK hurt Italy t1 (germany may even be able to get the Eg NO by turn 4 or 5), it will recover and be useful.  I guess if this idea is viable, the UK Pac and Anzac see this, they may be positioned enough to seriously check Italy, or maybe even Japan.  not sure.

But the real crux of a US “invasion” is this.  Is there a way for Japan to seriously anatagonize the US with little cost?  Sort of like a Germany buying nothing on G1.  If Japan can do that, while Germany is contemplating sealion, that makes sealion even more possible because the US has to focus on a Japanese bluff.  In this case, Japan can declare war anytime it wants on anybody, as long as it’s guarantying the US has to focus on her. And even more to the point, if sealion is possible with these initial moves, if nothing else it forces the Brits out of the Mediterranean and even Egypt to protect their borders with little cost to the Axis.

[dondoolee]

Is there a way to send the Japanese AF to Europe?  Or do serious bombing threats on Russia/America/Atlantic shipping by J3/J4?

[dondoolee]

Also, If UK gets captured t3, does UK Pac own recaptured UK territories (ex:  Italy owns Egypt, UK pac liberates it, does UK Pac the IPC’s?).

[Witt]

No. I am afraid not.
The US, Anzac or France could recapture it and claim the territory’s IPCs until London is liberated.

[WILD BILL]

The one thing that stands out to me is that you lost half the Luftwaffe in your scenario (or maybe some planes just out of position helping Italy?). It is important to get a German ftr in S Italy to force the UK to go all in if she does Taronto (evacuate air units from London), but even if the UK still hits the Italian fleet I might not scramble all. The Royal Navy is a sitting duck afterwords, and axis can kill it off (maybe have Italy scramble, or not scramble and soften it up on Italy’s turn for the Germans to finish it off (w/less risk to Luftwaffe). The trade off is that Italy wouldn’t get the Med NO (if Germany finishes of the RN), because Italy still needs to hit the French in sz93 so they don’t escape.

If you are attempting a Sea Lion you have to have nearly all your air German force IMO (maybe be down 1-2 planes but surly not 6). I would never go into Sea Lion with odds under say 80%. Even at 80% you probably loose much of your air force in the attack and have only a couple land units left after taking London.

Shadow has some good advice for UK about moving the Med fleet to Gib (sz92), I like to call that the Castle Move (like in chess to protect the King/London). I would add that you should leave a destroyer back in sz94 as well to complete a block out of the Italian fleet (w/French fleet still in sz 93 of course) so that Italy/Germany can’t 1-2 punch you. This would also keep the Italians from getting the no ships in the Med NO.

One other thing to point out is that in your opening German move try to set-up a hit and run w/German BB on the UK Scottish fleet (SZ111). Send in your BB a sub or two and a couple planes (might even entice UK to scramble the Scottish ftr to kill it for less def of London). What you try to do is not kill the Brit BB, but damage it in a one round battle, then retreat your damaged German BB back to sz 112 where you should have your cruiser and air cover (maybe a carrier built). This move will force the UK to deal with your fleet in sz 112 (which forces them to forgo Taronto), or you keep your BB and it auto repairs on your next turn (back bone of the invasion fleet). If the hit and run works, you can easily kill the UK damaged BB on your next turn (has no naval base to help it get to safty/repair). Another tip is some of you German air force will probably need to land on Holland so make sure you protect them by moving your 3 AA guns over with them.

It’s all about preserving the Luftwaffe
Good luck WB

PS edit: I’m becoming a firm believer of a J1 attack. I know that the Germans will be uncomfortable, but you can do a lot of damage. Besides moving on China, J1 you invade FIC and Kwangtung (UK NO+ both are good places for a J2 IC). Take out the UK BB in sz37, and the US crap ships off both Hawaii and the Phil. Take Phil w/2 transports and air (US loses ftr and 5 IPC NO). To hit the Hawaiian fleet you should also take Wake isl (your 3rd transport from sz6). This allows you to hit the Hawaiian mini fleet with min loss (basically you risk a few planes and crap ships). You then position your loaded carriers + fleet off Wake so if the US does hit you, your planes can land safely (but they probably won’t). Like I said the Germans might not like it, but Japan is in great shape. J2 I think I would take Malaya (Anz NO) then take the all money islands on J3 with transports bought J1 etc….The US would get it’s war bonus, but will be weak on both sides and take several turns to get up to par. If the US goes heavy Atlantic, maybe Japan ends up smoking the Pac, and starts helping out in Russia, The Mid East/Africa…part of the Japanese air force in Europe? If US goes heavy Pac they have a lot of catching up to do, and Germany is golden.

[Cow]

You want better odds? Italy start with a bomber, bomb uk airbase for germany.

[WILD BILL]

Not 100% sure, but I think I attacked the US sz26 (Haw) with 1ss, 2dd, 1cruiser, 2 frts, 2 tacs vs 1ss, 1dd, 1cruiser (possibility of 2 ftrs scrambling). He chose not to scramble, so I ended up with a dd and cruiser in sz26 (as a blocker), and a bb plus 2 loaded carriers off Wake. The thought was that I would take air units as causalities if he scrambled before my last surface ship so I could block out the San Fran fleet from hitting my Wake capital ships. I had more planes that could have flown to the carriers (which I think ended up going to Caroline Is as a deterrent?). I used my sz6 tpt to take Wake so I would be able to land my planes there if he tried a suicide fly-by on my Wake capital ships (take the first 3 hits w/o losing anything and land my planes on Wake).

The Phil fell pretty easy too, Japan has a lot of stuff at start. I think I used the Caroline carrier at Phil so I could get some air units in the land battle. So the US lost 1ss, 1dd, 1 cruiser 1 tpt at Haw, and 1ss, 1dd plus the 2inf and ftr at Phil. That sets them back in the Pac especially if they build for the Atlantic.

As far as the money islands, Japan only starts w/3 transports so you can’t get them all on J2 anyway (too far from sz6 for newly built tpts). J2 I took Malaya to stop the Anz No. I did buy 3 tpts J1 and invaded all the DEI on J3. In fact on J3 I had 6 transports (12 units) in range to land on Queensland (Anz backed off to NSW), but I decided it was best to go for the money islands.

[Cow]

Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.

It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@Cow:

Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.

It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.

How does the US keep Japan down with just 2 SS, 1 DD per turn?

[dondoolee]

@Cow:

Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.

It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.

The theory is to keep Britain isolated and the us low on production and not able to reinforce Britain on the turn the UK is captured, this leaves the axis time to maneuver into a position.  With the us out if the war, the axis control all the movement on the board and have only 1 target to hit.

Japan can still maneuver.  Are their any maneuvers Japan can do that the US HAS to respond to?  That was one of my main questions.  The other one is, can Japan maneuver and virtually guarantee itself the odds to take India J3/J4.  If that’s possible, that’s the UK eliminated before the other two allies are even in.the war.  I don’t see how they can recover.  But of there is really nothing statistically the U.K. can do to get favorable odds on both fronts (even it’s just 51% for the axis) by a mad rush from the Axis, I see no reason not to do that every single time as an axis player.

Can the The isolated UK can be virtually wiped out by the axis before the other allies even enter?  And if so that probably means a couple of things:

1. Italy is not insignificant in the early game.
2. Italy and Japan have linked up in the middle east and are now a force Russia has to think about. That should be a big enough that to Russia to keep her busy while a strong Germany makes adjustments.  Germany also had a lot of translated that can hit Russia hard and deep into get territory.  Russian troops are still going to be in a conservative position.
3. The U.S.A. Is on its cost and unable to reach UK for 2 turns.  It also has to build a strong enough navy to withstand the German air force and possibly even a combined German Italian navy.  That’s money not going into ground units.   If one is playing a kill an isolated UK, and Japan can get planes on Normandy by J4, that adds to an even bigger headache.

Even if Japan can’t kill UK Pacific I still wonder if it can do this:

1. hit Russia.  Either by hitting Russia in the far east J1, our hitting China particularly hard (1 factory and 2 bombers ought to be enough to contain India) and being at the USSRS back door on J4, while gobbling up a few far east territories before that.

2. Force America to build heavy in the Pacific

Either way, Like I said Japan is a mystery to me on how to optimize sea lion.

But even if the U.K. can protect itself with favorable odds, this seems to be what’s happening:

1. Germany buys nothing G1, lands planes in tobrook and Italy.  This costs Germany nothing, and cripples the allies.
2. UK has to pull fighters from India, and leaves Italian Bb/Tran alone, withdraws navy from med.

I don’t get how the allies survive that opening.  India is as good as dead, Italy it’s going to swell, and Russia is going to get crushed quickly.

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Hey dondoolee,
a different approach could be:
G1 standard opening attacks, buy two bmbrs and arm.
G2 bomb London with all four bmbrs and stukas left
(AB and NB as well as the IC) buy two to three TT’s two bmbrs and art or arm plus a DD.
Block access from Gib with a DD placed after purchasing it.
G3 use now your invasing forces plus bmbrs and get London.
Favorable odds with combined Airpower.

BUT like knp7765 allready said…

@knp7765:

Hey dondoolee,
I think you are not taking something else into account. While Germany may have a good chance of achieving Sealion round 3 in most circumstances, just how good a victory will it be for them? In a lot of instances, it may be a pyrrhic victory for Germany. I mean, say Germany takes London but only has a tank and a few planes left over. Sure they get to plunder London’s treasury, but like calvinhobbesliker said they will be weak on the continent and Russia will just be licking it’s chops.
I used to enjoy doing Sealion but in later games I rarely do that because unless everything goes right for Germany (no planes lost, good dice), it usually costs them too much so they lose in the long run.

In the end it cost you. You will figure it out after the battle is over how much exactly.
Every Ftr, Bmbr,stuka etc you loose will be missed on the russian soil.
And Russia will come after you!

AeV

[madscientist]

Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?

[teslas]

@madscientist:

Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?

Correct. London must fall.

[innocentbystander]

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

[madscientist]

@innocentbystander:

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.

Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.

G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).

When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!

Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.

Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.

UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.

If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.

Thus, on G2, attack!

UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53

Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.

Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Well, Britain begins with 6 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr, 1 strat. Let’s assume the UK buys 6 inf, 1 fighter and does Taranto, removing the bomber and a fighter. Then, after UK1, London will contain 12 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr and collects 33, allowing a build of 9 inf, 1 tank for a total of 21 inf, 1 mech, 1 tank, 5 AAA, 4 ftr. We’ll assume Germany sinks the Canadian ships and so the Canadians can’t reinforce London.

Against this, if Germany brings in its 12 planes plus 9 loaded transports (inf+tank), that gives about a 50/50 shot at London. The odds only slightly decrease if 3 tanks are changed to art (since Germany will have 6 tanks in Paris, and its other 3 tanks in the East somewhere). However, Germany will need to divert planes to prevent a scramble against the landing, since a BB+CC aren’t likely to defeat 3 defending fighters. Furthermore, you probably want a greater than 50/50 shot if you’re going to risk so much money…