2017 LEAGUE TITLE FINAL. JDOW (Allies+13) vs JuanSpain. BM3

[JDOW]

To be clear: You will review NCM and drop me a note when I can continue, right?

[JuanSpain]

@JapanDOWRound1Fan
2 options: I resign or review NCM. Will let you know asap.

[JDOW]

Alright!

[JuanSpain]

@JapanDOWRound1Fan
Hi Sir!

I don’t see many options after this disaster, 7 units vs 3 with this outcome is ridiculous, and it was relevant for my Europe strategy. I will continue given it is a final because miracles occur sometimes.

No NCM changes. I will be on holidays next week so take your time for the Russian turn as I will not correspond until the following week.

Once I resign in a few turns and you become the title holder, I would like continuing for fun from this G4 point with an average outcome edit of this combat, I think it would provide an interesting game from this point for some more rounds and would like to play it also if you don’t mind. Will also reinforce your win morally, which keeps as the most probable outcome even in that scenario.

Please carry on when you wish and sorry for the delay, crazy work week prior to holidays.

Thx

Cheers

Juan

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 1 armour and 10 artilleries; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        2 fighters moved from Russia to 127 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from Tambov to Bryansk
        1 mech_infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
        1 armour moved from Tambov to Rostov
        1 armour moved from Rostov to Ukraine
        1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Ukraine

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in 127 Sea Zone
            Russians attack with 2 fighters
            Germans defend with 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the Germans Submerged
                Russians roll dice for 2 fighters in 127 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in 127 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Russians and 1 destroyer owned by the Germans lost in 127 Sea Zone
                1 transport owned by the Germans lost in 127 Sea Zone
            Russians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for Russians: 1 fighter
            Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
        Battle in Ukraine
            Russians attack with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 aaGun and 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 aaGun and 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine
            Russians win, taking Ukraine from Germans with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Germans: 1 aaGun and 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 fighter moved from 127 Sea Zone to Finland
        2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        10 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 artillery moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
        6 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
        2 aaGuns and 11 infantry moved from Buryatia to Amur

    Place Units - Russians
        1 armour placed in Volgograd
        10 artilleries placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 33 PUs; end with 33 PUs
        Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 36 PUs
        Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 38 PUs
        Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 40 PUs
        Objective Russians 2 Spread Of Communism: Russians met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 46 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -0,33
Russians : -0,50

Savegame

[JDOW]

Regarding the alternative game continuing with LL dice in Finland, I would like to be frank, I do not say no, but also not yes at the moment. My biggest worry is that it would be hard for me to play my A game in such an alternative universe game so I am not sure whether this would provide the required gain of knowledge.

But as said, depends a bit on the timing and my schedule, so this is definitely not a “no” to your suggestion.

Best,
Tobias

[oysteilo]

It is very easy to look at everything from the side…Looks like it was somewhat optimistic for the axis to place in 112 at G1? With a destroyer buy and placing in 113 at G1 it would have looked differently now

Finland dice is not good but not outragous too. You have to be prepared for 3 defending hits in round 1 (about 15% chance) and you are by no means guaranteed 3 hits in round 1 (17 total power). There are few units and hence round one is so decisive

[JuanSpain]

@oysteilo If you wish to be fair, please speak about the % of the dice of the combat. 15% is just the % of the defense of round 1. I was taking 3 cheap units there, so risk was well under control I think. To be fair you could mention that average in the complete combat was 2 hits for defenders, thus TUV + 17, control the territory, scort the fleet, good odds vs any fleet aproaching Norway or vs the land Norway + Finland with the italian can opener, which means if russia moves more planes to finland to help retaking it, very likely they loose them. The output of this combat: 5 defense hits overall is far below 1% ??, just mentioning the 15% is unfair. 5 Hits were 150% over the expected on average, by far more than double!!

Destroyer 113 is probably a better purchase in this G1 strat, it is one of the 4 basic alternatives that I evaluated. Allthough it can be done, it is more difficult to push russians to Moscow in G3 with 2 less mechs + 112 UK1 meant a 50% chance of eliminating 40 IPC in 112 + transport in G2, loosing just a german sub, and a cruiser that I don’t use a lot in my strat, so not definitive in my view. I evaluated and opted for G1 112 position + all land for those 2 reasons and a couple more that I will not disclose.

It is a pitty that a final is decided by dice, but they also play and like any other player, I won many games with dice help in the past (not a 1% combat that I remember now in a relevant match, but some 30%, like the very definitive Calcutta vs the great Adam in BM) + Jdow is a superb player that also prepares a lot studying the others strats so a title for him would never be unfair + I had my padawan winning recently the 2016 title so very satisfied whatever happens in the 2017 title. I accepted that I had lost, 5 minutes after the combat and it is not a problem, but part of the game. If Tobias does not wish to prove he has the best strategy, for fun after the game and for his greater glory, of course it is not something I can ask for, we are just following strictly the rules. I would never refuse…, but having said that, I do respect 100% all other behaviours, of course.

[JuanSpain]

@JuanSpain Will download the map next monday 10 or tuesday 11

[oysteilo]

Maybe I am unfair to you @JuanSpain . We all know the dice gods do not play into our hands from time to time. I agree with all you write, obviously in most situations this will go well for you and it is very unlucky that this happens in the big final. I totally agree.

I still think you overestimate how unlucky you were. If my math is correct it is about 3% chance that one bomber will hit and all other units will miss. For simplicity if we assume fighters also hit at 4 and don’t count in the “1’s” it is about a 12% chance that you will score 1 hit. Combined with the 15% chance of the defenders we look at 2% chance during round 1. During a game you will experience many 2% outcomes. It is very unlucky for you that it happens in this battle of course. Round 2 is a completely new battle and 2 defending hits will happen 44% of the time

I still think this is a battle where you are very vulnerable to dice variations and my initial point still stands it is fairly likely that JDOW will score 3 hits in round 1 and that is not a great result for you either way, and even with 2 hits from your end in round 1 it does not change much

Just my two cents and I hope I don’t come across as a “besserwisser”. That is not my intention as I respect you as one of the most fair players I have ever played, as well as a very strong opponent!

[simon33]

Just for everyone’s info, the old dice calculator shows it is just under a 2% outcome here: http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=3&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=2&aBom=2&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=1&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=2&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Not sure I understand why this battle is so game changing. +5IPCs to USSR in territories/NOs, -2 in territory and -20 in planes to Germany. Seems a setback, not a game changer. Perhaps there’s some option opened up that I’m missing the strength of. Anyway, I hope once the final result is declared the “for fun” “what if” game can go ahead.

[JDOW]

Hey all and thanks Simon for doing the calculations.
Interesting to see btw the v2 of the calculator has a slightly different outcome:
http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=piechart&rules=1940&battleType=land&attInfantry=2&attMechanizedInfantry=1&attFighter=2&attBomber=2&defInfantry=1&defFighter=2

According to this, the result was a bottom 2.6% outcome.
In my final against Zhukov I experienced a 0.5% chance disaster at Java which certainly shifted the entire dynamics in the Pacific, while I have to acknowledge I had favorable dice in G1 and J1, so back then I did definitely not call it a dice game because it wasn’t.

In a nutshell: The Finland battle outcome was not just bad, it was certainly VERY bad for the Axis I would for sure be heavily complaining about these dice, a dice whiner as I am.

@JuanSpain : I have some input and some considerations on that turn and the overall strategy so far. I am happy to share after the game, I cannot disclose it yet.
And regarding the potentials alternative continuation with a LL outcome at Finland, I just wanted to be 100% honest from the first place. People tend to say “yes yes, we can do that” and when the time has come, they are reluctant and do not continue or play at such a slow pace that they just hope the opponent loses interest at some point.

I answer was honest and it included that I definitely consider it and usually I try to be a good sportsman and to match my opponent’s expectations. I just wanted to have this little loophole that allows me to not stand there as a liar in the unlikely event the alternative game will not happen.

Happy holidays Juan!
Tobias

[JuanSpain]

@JDOW Thanks very much the 3 of you guys! More action soon!
The important point is always enjoying the game (which for me of course includes dice and strat conversatios, happy to recieve all any of you wish to state). And once you realize you will loose (with or without Marti help), start thinking about new games. Next title play-offs will start soon and I’m proud to think I will be classified again!

Something I always liked about the game is probabilities calculation. I still never use the simulators, I like using brief aprox head calculations, it reminds me the good moments in front of the board with friends and prevents part of my brain decomission!! A good proxy percentage of this one is not difficult to obtain (the exact requires a lot of calculations), but I would need paper and some minutes and now I just have the smartphone (brain decomission…). May not be far from the 2% you guys are mentioning.

Best

Juan

[JDOW]

@JuanSpain said in 2017 LEAGUE TITLE FINAL. JDOW (Allies+13) vs JuanSpain. BM3:

I still never use the simulators

I assume you refer to the online battle calculators? I also use them rarely for planning actual moves and mostly only for exactly that purpose, to determine how unlikely a certain outcome was.

[JuanSpain]

@JDOW Back at home today as expected. Will download the map tomorrow evening and my Japan move will come on wednesday night at the latest.

[JDOW]

Welcome back, sounds good!

[JuanSpain]

A lot of work the first 2 days, just downloaded the map, will move inmediatelly, why to change my style now?? jaja

[JuanSpain]

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 airfield, 2 fighters, 3 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to Shan State
        2 infantry moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
        2 fighters moved from 41 Sea Zone to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Kiangsi to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Kwangsi to Shan State
        1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Hunan to Yunnan
        5 tactical_bombers moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        2 bombers moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        1 cruiser moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in Celebes
        Battle in Yunnan
            Japanese attack with 2 bombers, 2 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers in Yunnan, round 2 : 5/9 hits, 4,17 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Japanese and 2 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Yunnan
            Japanese win, taking Celebes from Dutch with 2 bombers and 5 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry
        Battle in Shan State
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 6 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser in Shan State, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 6 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Shan State, round 2 : 6/10 hits, 5,00 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Shan State, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 artillery owned by the Japanese, 1 mech_infantry owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Shan State
            Japanese win with 6 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        2 destroyers moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Kweichow
        1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
        2 bombers moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        2 fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to Java
        1 artillery moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from 37 Sea Zone to Siam
        3 submarines moved from 42 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 2 carriers and 1 destroyer moved from 42 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Guam to 21 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 carriers moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Manchuria to Korea
        2 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        6 fighters moved from Shan State to French Indo China
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Shan State to French Indo China
        1 fighter moved from Japan to Korea
        1 fighter moved from Japan to 35 Sea Zone
        4 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to 35 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to French Indo China

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 airfield placed in French Indo China
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Kwangtung
        2 fighters placed in Japan

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 56 PUs; end with 56 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 61 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese : 1,33
UK_Pacific : 1,17
Japanese : 1,33

Savegame

[JuanSpain]

Something did not change since the last time I moved, 4/4 defense hits, below 2%, Marti decided the winner a couple of weeks ago and has not changed his mind for the moment, hmmm

[JuanSpain]

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 airfield, 2 fighters, 3 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to Shan State
        2 infantry moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
        2 fighters moved from 41 Sea Zone to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Kiangsi to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Kwangsi to Shan State
        1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Hunan to Yunnan
        5 tactical_bombers moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        2 bombers moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        1 cruiser moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in Celebes
        Battle in Yunnan
            Japanese attack with 2 bombers, 2 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers in Yunnan, round 2 : 5/9 hits, 4,17 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Japanese and 2 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Yunnan
            Japanese win, taking Celebes from Dutch with 2 bombers and 5 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry
        Battle in Shan State
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 6 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser in Shan State, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 6 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Shan State, round 2 : 6/10 hits, 5,00 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Shan State, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 artillery owned by the Japanese, 1 mech_infantry owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Shan State
            Japanese win with 6 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        2 destroyers moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 41 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Kweichow
        1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
        2 bombers moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        2 fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to Java
        1 artillery moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from 37 Sea Zone to Siam
        3 submarines moved from 42 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 2 carriers and 1 destroyer moved from 42 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Guam to 21 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 carriers moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Manchuria to Korea
        2 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        6 fighters moved from Shan State to French Indo China
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Shan State to French Indo China
        1 fighter moved from Japan to Korea
        1 fighter moved from Japan to 35 Sea Zone
        4 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to 35 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to French Indo China

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 airfield placed in French Indo China
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Kwangtung
        2 fighters placed in Japan

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 56 PUs; end with 56 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 61 PUs
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from 6 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to 5 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese : 1,33
UK_Pacific : 1,17
Japanese : 1,33

Savegame