What is the Flying Tiger doing? And all the other British aircraft?
If he’s screwing you that hard in West Russia every game why not just stack it with every air unit in range? I mean there are 4 total fighters and 1 strategic bomber available that could all be on W. Russia at the end of the first round. That means 6 total fighters on W. Russia at the end of Russia’s second turn.
Maybe you’re trying to do too much with your air in the first round? If W. Russia is getting cracked on G2 every time, nothing else is going to matter anyway hehe. Your German opponent is clearly out for blood. You need to push it so far off the table that he doesn’t even consider a balsy strafe.
If he is the sort of German player that would attack Egypt, then spend 3 ipcs of your bid there so the attack drops below 50%. And keep the Russian fighter where it can do you some good in the second round.
If his cruiser always rolls hot, then maybe don’t try to hit the Baltic fleet and just leave it for the Americans to deal with in subsequent rounds.
You can cover Szech with the British fighter from sz 35 (after it sinks the transport in 61) and 1 Russian inf. The odds are to the defender with both fighters remaining. Even if the Japanese attacker wins, this is on average with only 1 unit remaining meaning you’re at least likely to kill his fighters. If that’s not enough, then spend 3 ipcs of your bid to bolster Szech.
If your opponent continues to launch risky attacks against the odds, eventually the dice are going to go your way. It just sounds like he hasn’t been sufficiently burned yet, to realize that he’s taking some pretty serious gambles.
Does he always stack Karelia G1? If so, you might consider armor rather than artillery at purchase. Preventing a Karelia stack on G1 is pretty much the only reason to ever buy tanks as the Russians. But it is possible to deadzone, if you are willing to sacrifice a hitpoint, for more attack power. Then you’d be the one with the strafe option instead of him.