Basic Allied shipping options–Baltic vs. Barents?

Yea, I already worked into my assumptions that Germany was up 2 IPC for Karelia and up 2 IPC for something else somewhere, but down 2 IPC for Algeria and Libya and down 2 IPC for W. Russia.

With the US Fleet going north to stop Germany from playing roadblock, the American Air Force is going to go South to sink the German fleet and then move north again.

Meanwhile, the British Industrial Complex in S. Africa coupled with initial landings of troops by England and America (Round 1) in Algeria should pretty much eliminate all German resistance in Africa.

So by turn 5 you will have collected about 200 IPC +/- 20 IPC but you’ve spent 16 in Germany 1 and 24 in Germany 3 and probably another 12-16 on Germany 5 just to maintain enough presence to ensure you are not eliminated for negligible cost to America.  So that means you’ve actually put 144-148 IPC of units (Air/Land) into Europe.

Meanwhile, Russia’s put 127 IPC in Ground/Air units in those save 5 rounds. (Assuming Japan takes Buryatia on Round 1, Yakut and SFE on Round 2 and that Evenki/Novo/Kaz are at worst liberated each round by the allies.)

144 vs 127 is not exactly a significant improvement in the ground.  Not when you have to figure England’s only down India, Persia, Australia and New Zealand and most of that is recently lost.  That means England’s probably averaging about 24 IPC a round for 5 rounds, you figure 3 of those rounds are tanks in Africa (30 IPC) + 1 round of an industrial (15 IPC), and a carrier, transport in there some where, leaving them 51 IPC in ground units.

So in Euro-Asia Russia and England have added 178 IPC in ground units vs Germany’s 144 IPC in Ground Units.  That’s not including the troops America’s bringing in by that point. (USA to Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Trans-Jordan, Persia so by the end of Round 5 America can have troops ready to walk into Caucasus.)  Or USA goes to England then lands them in Arkhangelsk later in Karelia directly.

Any way I look at it, there’s no winning scenario for Germany.  They just cannot produce enough equipment, given normal dice results, to win with a SZ 5 fleet build.  They either lose the fleet for next to no loss or they are forced into spending so much on fleet that they get stalemated by the Allies in very short order.

Anyway, your assumption of Africa is off.  As I said, with the IC in S. Africa + American landings or even just initial allied landings + IC in S. Africa there’s not much chance Germany’s holding Africa for more then a round, and even then, it’s only a few territories.  Unless they put significant investments into the Med fleet and/or tie up fighters to stall the allies.  In which case the allies will actually have to fight for it, but Russia will be much more liberated to exploit the German countryside.

Any hope of Germany staying in the mid-40s after round 3 is a lost cause.  After round 3, Germany’ll be lucky if they get into the 40s, but should be ready to expect incomes in the upper 30s.

And no, the Japanese fleet will NOT be able to take out the IC in S. Africa.  I’ve got a good 3 counters to any Japanese aggressions there, I can chose what suits the situation best.  But suffice it to say, there’s no hope for Japan.  It’s never been done in any game I’ve put a complex in.  Well, not before England itself falls.

IMHO the baltic/sz5 shipping option is clearly the best route to take.

Allies then threaten everything vital to Germany including Germany major itself. It may take 1-2 turns longer to solidify this shuck from a possible successful German air assault but it effectively stops the german advance and all Russian strength can turn East if needed.

W/respect to helping MOS, Brit & US armor can land in MOS at the same time once dropped in LEN from the sz5/Baltic shuck vs the Barent’s shuck into ARC so you really don’t lose much there.

@JWW:

IMHO the baltic/sz5 shipping option is clearly the best route to take.

Allies then threaten everything vital to Germany including Germany major itself. It may take 1-2 turns longer to solidify this shuck from a possible successful German air assault but it effectively stops the german advance and all Russian strength can turn East if needed.

W/respect to helping MOS, Brit & US armor can land in MOS at the same time once dropped in LEN from the sz5/Baltic shuck vs the Barent’s shuck into ARC so you really don’t lose much there.

then, after all we ve been discusing here

the Baltic carrier almost has no alternative

Ahhhhhhhh, it’s been awhile since I have replied to a specific option.
The most important question……WHAT ARE THE VICTORY CONDITIONS?
If you don’t have to reach a foreign shore to win, then navy be damned!
If you need a navy to reach the victory city, then axis better start early and protect.
Allies respond to what the axis need to do, and where they are focused, and be prepared to respond to either the Baltic or Barents sea.

Carriers are a DEFENSIVE purchase for the most part…

They serve to protect either your fleet, or by default your shores, from enemy landings.

Thus the Graf Zeppelin is a German DEFENSIVE move.

@ncscswitch:

Thus the Graf Zeppelin is a German DEFENSIVE move.

:? :?

And as in KGF Germany has to hold out (defend) while Japan developes it is a good buy?
I´m for this AC because I donnot see it as defensive only:
The offensive benefit of the AC is that it increases your fighter´s range. You may bring up to 4 of them into range- shuffling them. And this is the support you need to offer a real threat to early allied action. You will want to burn the for now superior baltic fleet to sink the allied ones. 4 fighters and a bomber have a pretty punch.
T1 UK has no other choice than landing in Algeria with the US or wait.
On G2 the baltic fleet could  be moved to SZ 6 to threaten every SZ around Britain and
the algerian cost as well as the norwegian.

I have attached a map of pickup and drop zones in the North Atlantic from a US perspective.  You have to remember that if your Eastern fleet is dropping into Archangel or Karelia from Z04 then you can’t get to the Baltic in one move.  You are stuck with going to Norway or WEU for a turn before moving to the Baltic.

The Baltic is generally preferable, though not always possible.

BTW - This is from Caspian Sub’s paper on US shipping (Paper #2).  http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/Caspian_Sub/

Peace