Yea, I already worked into my assumptions that Germany was up 2 IPC for Karelia and up 2 IPC for something else somewhere, but down 2 IPC for Algeria and Libya and down 2 IPC for W. Russia.
With the US Fleet going north to stop Germany from playing roadblock, the American Air Force is going to go South to sink the German fleet and then move north again.
Meanwhile, the British Industrial Complex in S. Africa coupled with initial landings of troops by England and America (Round 1) in Algeria should pretty much eliminate all German resistance in Africa.
So by turn 5 you will have collected about 200 IPC +/- 20 IPC but you’ve spent 16 in Germany 1 and 24 in Germany 3 and probably another 12-16 on Germany 5 just to maintain enough presence to ensure you are not eliminated for negligible cost to America. So that means you’ve actually put 144-148 IPC of units (Air/Land) into Europe.
Meanwhile, Russia’s put 127 IPC in Ground/Air units in those save 5 rounds. (Assuming Japan takes Buryatia on Round 1, Yakut and SFE on Round 2 and that Evenki/Novo/Kaz are at worst liberated each round by the allies.)
144 vs 127 is not exactly a significant improvement in the ground. Not when you have to figure England’s only down India, Persia, Australia and New Zealand and most of that is recently lost. That means England’s probably averaging about 24 IPC a round for 5 rounds, you figure 3 of those rounds are tanks in Africa (30 IPC) + 1 round of an industrial (15 IPC), and a carrier, transport in there some where, leaving them 51 IPC in ground units.
So in Euro-Asia Russia and England have added 178 IPC in ground units vs Germany’s 144 IPC in Ground Units. That’s not including the troops America’s bringing in by that point. (USA to Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Trans-Jordan, Persia so by the end of Round 5 America can have troops ready to walk into Caucasus.) Or USA goes to England then lands them in Arkhangelsk later in Karelia directly.
Any way I look at it, there’s no winning scenario for Germany. They just cannot produce enough equipment, given normal dice results, to win with a SZ 5 fleet build. They either lose the fleet for next to no loss or they are forced into spending so much on fleet that they get stalemated by the Allies in very short order.
Anyway, your assumption of Africa is off. As I said, with the IC in S. Africa + American landings or even just initial allied landings + IC in S. Africa there’s not much chance Germany’s holding Africa for more then a round, and even then, it’s only a few territories. Unless they put significant investments into the Med fleet and/or tie up fighters to stall the allies. In which case the allies will actually have to fight for it, but Russia will be much more liberated to exploit the German countryside.
Any hope of Germany staying in the mid-40s after round 3 is a lost cause. After round 3, Germany’ll be lucky if they get into the 40s, but should be ready to expect incomes in the upper 30s.
And no, the Japanese fleet will NOT be able to take out the IC in S. Africa. I’ve got a good 3 counters to any Japanese aggressions there, I can chose what suits the situation best. But suffice it to say, there’s no hope for Japan. It’s never been done in any game I’ve put a complex in. Well, not before England itself falls.
