Stats

gamerman01

@crockett36 said in Post League Game Results Here:

Studying two great players is really informative. Look at their purchases, their stats (particularly piece counts and income). I don’t care (yet) about TUV. You have to adjust it for A vs A inflation, which is difficult and ever changing.

I don’t study many stats, but I have tracked one for years, in my games.

Don’t ask me why I chose this cutoff point, but once I did, I had to stay with it.

In my experience it is a VERY good indicator of who is winning and by how much, regardless of what round it is, even rounds 1-3 with different DOW timings.

It is a “rule of thumb” kind of like the “rule of 72” for example (you have internet search engines - don’t ask me what that is! I looked up Bjorn Bolg from crocketts post!)

At the end of each UK turn, I look at TUV total for Axis vs Allies.

If the difference is between 350 and 500, you have a tight game.

So if Allies are about 450 or 500 and rising, they are definitely pulling away at the time. Conversely, if Allies are only ahead 350 or less, and especially if dropping, Axis are gaining.

So that rule of thumb incorporates all the variables, like facilities owned, and the fact that there are more Allied powers that can’t attack together, etc, you know.

TUV obviously ignores positioning and an unused airbase on Iceland is worth the same as 5 infantry on Moscow (in TUV), but in my experience tracking dozens of games, this rule of thumb is quite reliable.

gamerman01

It’s not hard in Excel, so I graph the TUV from round to round in my games. Then I look back at who won or lost and the graph shows TUV is HIGHLY indicative of who will win.

If 2 people look at this, I will be happy.

Screenshot 2023-09-15 09.38.35.png

gamerman01

I am certain none of these 3 opponents will mind, this does not put them in a bad light:

Here is my analysis of these 3 recent games I played:

gamerman01

(See graphs below)

I am currently in a dogfight with @MrRoboto. Only 5 rounds done, but the numbers show it is a hot game (differences between 382 and 490 so far).

@Pejon_88 had a revenge game with me and I got the long, slow death. TUV vascillates from a start of 544 down to 270 at one point, holding in the 300’s through UK12 but in all my experience I knew I was done for at that point. (Things hadn’t really gone south yet and there was no big decisive battle, as the graph shows)

@aagamerz13 gave me the most difficult and stressful game of the last 2 years - I was hanging on for dear life. You can see the numbers bear this out - the usual roughly 500 at round 1, dipping to 335 with a slow rise through UK9. Then he finally made a misstep (I was dreading 6 German tanks heading straight to India and to my surprise he split them up and the Russians picked them off) and then you see it just gets away from him after round 9 or 10.

The graphs of the 2 completed games show the trend of the game overall, as you can see.

In 2 extremely competitive games:
Pejon, Axis win, difference line slowly trends down
AAgamerz, Allied win, line slowly trends up.

Thoughts???!!! Please?

AndrewAAGamer

Wow - nice spreadsheet. Now I know why you can keep track of the wins/losses.

Your TUV comparison pretty much matches my own. I say if the Axis are 400 TUV behind the Allies and are collecting within $10 IPC of the Allies they are winning. If they are more than $500 TUV behind the Allies and are collecting $15+ less than the Allies they are losing. The middle ground is a close game.

gamerman01

I like the added factor of the Income
I usually don’t look at it, but it’s obvious that’s another good metric, especially when put together

Pejon_88

@gamerman01 nicely done :)

I can add that I pretty much look at it the same way as you and @AndrewAAGamer mentions above regarding TUV. I constantly look at that during my games. I would say it’s one of the best indicators of who’s winning and losing between two equally matched players.

simon33

@gamerman01 said in Stats:

I like the added factor of the Income
I usually don’t look at it, but it’s obvious that’s another good metric, especially when put together

I look at income mostly and TUV only a little. Maybe I am getting it backwards there?

gamerman01

@simon33 said in Stats:

@gamerman01 said in Stats:

I like the added factor of the Income
I usually don’t look at it, but it’s obvious that’s another good metric, especially when put together

I look at income mostly and TUV only a little. Maybe I am getting it backwards there?

You and I should probably look at both instead of one!

crockett36

@gamerman01 said in Stats:

It’s not hard in Excel, so I graph the TUV from round to round in my games. Then I look back at who won or lost and the graph shows TUV is HIGHLY indicative of who will win.

If 2 people look at this, I will be happy.

Great Job! This probably indicates that the Allies should do: the Russian/Chinese Yunnan stack and fade, the sz 26 to Caroline Islands assembly, Gibastion, the Egypt factory and stack, the Russian turtle since these preserve units and TUV early.

gamerman01

Some of those strategies may be good, but I don’t endorse any of them. :face_with_cowboy_hat:

I have been playing the balanced mod since it came out, where Russia has various restrictions when not at war with Japan, especially the restriction from entering China.

So just pointing out my charts are from balanced mod.

crockett36

@gamerman01 said in Stats:

Some of those strategies may be good, but I don’t endorse any of them. :face_with_cowboy_hat:

I have been playing the balanced mod since it came out, where Russia has various restrictions when not at war with Japan, especially the restriction from entering China.

So just pointing out my charts are from balanced mod.

Well, BM doesn’t exist except here. Soooooo, can you do some numbers for OOB please, pretty please with sugar on top?

gamerman01

By “do some numbers” I wonder if you mean TUV differences. If so, my instinct says the differences and rules of thumb (such as Allies being ahead by 500 or more) would apply perhaps even equally well with out of box.

But I am pretty much out of touch with out of the box after many years.

crockett36

@gamerman01 I heartily invite you to return! BM is too small a playground in my opinion.

gamerman01

@crockett36 That’s possible. I was thinking about it earlier this year. Thanks for the invitation!

Beyond that it’s a complicated answer I won’t post here

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