2015 League Post Game Results Here

axis-dominion

Actually battles were often decided before they were even fought (numbers, tactics, weapons etc), only the number of casualties could be estimated, and that’s exactly what LL does. The outcome is certain, the number of casualties isn’t.

the idea of calculating your way to conquering russia bothers me…this is inherently a game of strategy AND odds, along with an occasion of extreme luck that CAN decide an outcome, but is not often the sole factor.

examples of unpredictability in war:

1. bad weather
2. assassinations (e.g., if an assassination on hitler succeeded…the war would’ve most likely taken a very different course)
3. untimely death of important figure/president/general
4. betrayals
5. equipment sabotage
6. spies (perhaps getting lucky)
7. code breaking
8. lucky timing (like a bomber group that found its way to the japanese carriers at midway, more by chance than planning)
9. emotional decision making (e.g., hitler’s terrible temper)
10. cowardice (large number of troops, perhaps even outnumbering enemy, but maybe they lose morale or courage and run)
11. politics/religion influencing decisions
12. will to fight (e.g., churchill had that, chamberlain didn’t)
13. ideologies (e.g., barbaric nazi treatment of certain groups of people likely backfired by chasing out intelligent figures and increasing people’s will to resist)
14. foolish mistrust (e.g., stalin’s massive purge of his ranks, that weakened his army)
15. sudden breakthrough in technology (e.g., radar that eliminated the effectiveness of the u boats)
16. sudden change of alliances
17. an ally making a decision that hugely impacts you (e.g., japan DOW on america creating a huge problem for a germany steeped in russian conquest)
18. overconfidence
19. faulty information (germans drafted plans based on incomplete information of the real strength of the soviets)

and on and on…you can plan and plan and prepare and prepare, but there will always be a huge amount of unpredictability in war. that unpredictability can be reflected in the dice.

Adam514

@axis-dominion:

@Adam514:

Actually battles were often decided before they were even fought (numbers, tactics, weapons etc), only the number of casualties could be estimated, and that’s exactly what LL does. The outcome is certain, the number of casualties isn’t.

the idea of calculating your way to conquering russia bothers me…this is inherently a game of strategy AND odds, along with an occasion of extreme luck that CAN decide an outcome, but is not often the sole factor.

examples of unpredictability in war:

1. bad weather
2. assassinations (e.g., if an assassination on hitler succeeded…the war would’ve most likely taken a very different course)
3. untimely death of important figure/president/general
4. betrayals
5. equipment sabotage
6. spies (perhaps getting lucky)
7. code breaking
8. lucky timing (like a bomber group that found its way to the japanese carriers at midway, more by chance than planning)
9. emotional decision making (e.g., hitler’s terrible temper)
10. cowardice (large number of troops, perhaps even outnumbering enemy, but maybe they lose morale or courage and run)
11. politics/religion influencing decisions
12. will to fight (e.g., churchill had that, chamberlain didn’t)
13. ideologies (e.g., barbaric nazi treatment of certain groups of people likely backfired by chasing out intelligent figures and increasing people’s will to resist)
14. foolish mistrust (e.g., stalin’s massive purge of his ranks, that weakened his army)
15. sudden breakthrough in technology (e.g., radar that eliminated the effectiveness of the u boats)
16. sudden change of alliances
17. an ally making a decision that hugely impacts you (e.g., japan DOW on america creating a huge problem for a germany steeped in russian conquest)
18. overconfidence
19. faulty information (germans drafted plans based on incomplete information of the real strength of the soviets)

and on and on…you can plan and plan and prepare and prepare, but there will always be a huge amount of unpredictability in war. that unpredictability can be reflected in the dice.

Those are mostly reasons why you lose a war, not an isolated battle. Only weather would justify the luck, but even then they could predict the weather to a certain extent. Most of what you said is known before the battle is actually fought, hence the fact that we should be able to know who will win it. About calcing the way to Moscow, the same goes for the defence. The good thing that LL doesn’t do is making a 95% Moscow for Germany turn into a loss.

Adam514

Midway is a good example of a lucky battle, but was it a total dicing considering both navies and airforces? It’s debatable.

axis-dominion

i guess i’m not sure what you mean by “they affect war but not an isolated battle.” no battle is isolated from the rest of the war. e.g., morale and courage and seasoning of soldiers usually picks up as you win more and more battles (hence previous battles DO impact current and future ones). i can give many more examples of how battles are definitely not isolated from one another.

i can pick any one of the items i listed and give you examples of how it affected a specific battle.

war is composed of many battles, and some battles are more deciding than others. so if any one of those factors affects a key or deciding battle, it can of course influence the course of the entire war. you’re saying most of it is known before a battle begins, but how is failing courage, sudden betrayal, discovery of sabotaged equipment, your enemy more prepared (or unsurprised) by your “secret” strike (due to code breaking or spies), a commander’s emotional decision to at a crucial point, etc., be known before a battle is fought?

@Adam514:

@axis-dominion:

@Adam514:

Actually battles were often decided before they were even fought (numbers, tactics, weapons etc), only the number of casualties could be estimated, and that’s exactly what LL does. The outcome is certain, the number of casualties isn’t.

the idea of calculating your way to conquering russia bothers me…this is inherently a game of strategy AND odds, along with an occasion of extreme luck that CAN decide an outcome, but is not often the sole factor.

examples of unpredictability in war:

1. bad weather
2. assassinations (e.g., if an assassination on hitler succeeded…the war would’ve most likely taken a very different course)
3. untimely death of important figure/president/general
4. betrayals
5. equipment sabotage
6. spies (perhaps getting lucky)
7. code breaking
8. lucky timing (like a bomber group that found its way to the japanese carriers at midway, more by chance than planning)
9. emotional decision making (e.g., hitler’s terrible temper)
10. cowardice (large number of troops, perhaps even outnumbering enemy, but maybe they lose morale or courage and run)
11. politics/religion influencing decisions
12. will to fight (e.g., churchill had that, chamberlain didn’t)
13. ideologies (e.g., barbaric nazi treatment of certain groups of people likely backfired by chasing out intelligent figures and increasing people’s will to resist)
14. foolish mistrust (e.g., stalin’s massive purge of his ranks, that weakened his army)
15. sudden breakthrough in technology (e.g., radar that eliminated the effectiveness of the u boats)
16. sudden change of alliances
17. an ally making a decision that hugely impacts you (e.g., japan DOW on america creating a huge problem for a germany steeped in russian conquest)
18. overconfidence
19. faulty information (germans drafted plans based on incomplete information of the real strength of the soviets)

and on and on…you can plan and plan and prepare and prepare, but there will always be a huge amount of unpredictability in war. that unpredictability can be reflected in the dice.

Those are mostly reasons why you lose a war, not an isolated battle. Only weather would justify the luck, but even then they could predict the weather to a certain extent. Most of what you said is known before the battle is actually fought, hence the fact that we should be able to know who will win it. About calcing the way to Moscow, the same goes for the defence. The good thing that LL doesn’t do is making a 95% Moscow for Germany turn into a loss.

Adam514

What would be known before a battle is fought are numbers, weapons, terrain, quality of moral and generals, and your army’s tactics and a general idea of the enemy’s tactics. Just with that you can be certain of the outcome of most of the battles ever fought. For example, the Germans didn’t doubt the success of the paratroopers in taking Crete, they just didn’t expect such high losses.

What we don’t know that could influence a battle are weather, (you usually know sabotage before the battle starts) lucky timing, etc, but are they significant enough to change the general sway of a battle?

Foolish mistrust of generals for example is known prior to the battle itself, so it is a known factor when estimating if a battle will succeed or not, that’s what I mean by “reasons that affect the outcome of the war”.

gamerman01

The answer is somewhere between dice and low luck
Dice are too volatile - low luck is not nearly volatile enough

Take the discussion elsewhere please, gentlemen :-)

JuanSpain

@Boldfresh:

juan (axis) over bold (allies +16)

at least the dice taught me a couple of “never agains”…

look out for juan come playoff time - this man brings cow dice in his bag of tricks.

good luck the rest of the way juan!

Great game Bold, learnt a lot from you, and yes, this is the game I remember in which dice helped me more, however I am happy with how I was able to change my usual strategy with Japan. Game was in effect 99,99 % yours in round 6.

You have the restart option when you wish.

Midway in 4-7 June 1942…, was not low luck… and completely changed the course of war. I agree with Bold. LL is boring and unrealistic. The number of games I have played at which regular dice have changed the winner are below 10% (being this one of them) if you play better, you are usually able to compensate the challenges.

boldfresh

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35650.new#new

adam over bold (allies +16)

well played adam, welcome to the league, great to have you.

Soulblighter

G2: Adam (Allies) wins over Soulblighter (Axis)
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35760.0

axis-dominion

axis-dominion (axis) over JWW (allies +14)

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34844.new;topicseen#new

Arthur Bomber Harris

Nerquen (Allies + special) beats Arthur Harris (Axis)

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35735.0

Arthur Bomber Harris

Nerquen (Axis) defeats Arthur Bomber Harris (Allies + special)

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35736.0

gamerman01

Just to make sure you know, the last result won’t count unless and until you both have completed 10 games total - only best of 3 against a single opponent is counted officially in the league unless both players have completed 10 games, when best of 5 against the same opponent is counted…

Just explaining why only the first of those two results is recorded (if I have it right, those were games #2 and #3 and Nerquen won all 3)