Interesting analysis to share.
I will certainly add this opening post to one or another HR thread on Cruiser and BB.
Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever
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The Calc.
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As Boldfresh famously said a couple of years ago, before we were playing with Triple A…
“2 percenters seem to happen an awful lot in this game” (meaning A&A in general, not that specific game)
2 percent on each end of the probability distribution adds up to 4%. Could be top 2 % for you or top 2% for him, so 1 in 25 times you get a “2%” result
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In one of my first games of Axis & Allies revised, I was Germany and I was attacking the Caucuses and the Russians shot down all 3 of my attacking fighters with his AA. :-P That made me scared of attacking a place with an AA gun with air units for a long time.
Sick - In a board game against my brother two weeks ago, they shot down both my bombers - and then rolled 5 for 5 inf - TWICE.
Btw, welcome to a fellow Numenorean!
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Probability % # units / losses
0.04% 14: 4 Inf, 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 1 Inf. : 3 IPCs
0.46% 13: 3 Inf, 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 2 Inf. : 6 IPCs
1.38% 12: 2 Inf, 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 3 Inf. : 9 IPCs
3.86% 11: 1 Inf, 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 4 Inf. : 12 IPCs
8.4% 10: 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 5 Inf. : 15 IPCs
14.46% 9: 1 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art. : 19 IPCs
17.86% 8: 1 Art, 3 Fig, 4 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Fig. : 29 IPCs
16.58% 7: 1 Art, 2 Fig, 4 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Fig. : 39 IPCs
14.18% 6: 1 Art, 1 Fig, 4 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 3 Fig. : 49 IPCs
9.76% 5: 1 Art, 4 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Fig. : 59 IPCs
5.98% 4: 1 Art, 3 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Fig, 1 Bom. : 71 IPCs
3.18% 3: 1 Art, 2 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Fig, 2 Bom. : 83 IPCs
1.46% 2: 1 Art, 1 Bom. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Fig, 3 Bom. : 95 IPCs
0.68% 1: 1 Art. 5 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. : 107 IPCs
1.72% 0: no units. 5 Inf, 2 Art, 4 Fig, 4 Bom. : 111 IPCsOdds for having 2bmb and 1art left or worse is 7,04% actually, even though you have a 98% win chance ;)
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Good point, Rommel!
If you retreat before you lose all your units, you didn’t really put the win% to the test! -
In a game with Dizzkneeland, I attacked London for the win with Germany with 98% odds of victory and lost. It was the end of the game.
In a game with Gamerman, he sunk the italian fleet in one roll and in return I got 1 hit. Later in the game I attacked Gamerman’s soviet stack of 20+ infantry in Leningrad with a stronger German force and got ZERO hits the first round. Game over.
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In my last game I played as Japan.
The attacking force (ANZAC): 3 FTR
The defending force (Japan): 2 DD, 2 damaged BB, 1 CV + FTR.Japan won that battle with 1 damaged BB left…
OFC even with this kind of ‘dice-swinery’ the ANZAC worsened it defense of Sydney to be unrepairable so I just muttered a bit about sacrificing goats to the dice-gods knowing Sydney was lost anyway but still… the swinery…
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In my last game I played as Japan.
The attacking force (ANZAC): 3 FTR
The defending force (Japan): 2 DD, 2 damaged BB, 1 CV + FTR.Japan won that battle with 1 damaged BB left…
OFC even with this kind of ‘dice-swinery’ the ANZAC worsened it defense of Sydney to be unrepairable so I just muttered a bit about sacrificing goats to the dice-gods knowing Sydney was lost anyway but still… the swinery…
Thats one in 200 chance for only one bb left, and for anzac even to do such an attack they had to be real desperate.
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Thats one in 200 chance for only one bb left, and for anzac even to do such an attack they had to be real desperate.
If someone would do such a move in TripleA and post that outcome, I would have really strong doubts about honesty and number of re-rolls he did…
Not in my wildest dreams I would dare such a move!
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Playing as Japanese, I had a sub get attacked by 1 battleship, 2 destroyers and a cruiser. Sub sank all of them. My friend left the table and went for a walk.
On a side note, the same friend seems to get the worst luck whenever I play with him. Once, he sent all of Germany’s troops from Holland/Belgium and from West Germany to Paris…
And he failed to get a single hit on his first rolls, where-as I got every single roll a hit.
Then, in the same game, he attacked Hong Kong with 2 fighters, 2 tactical bombers, 6 infantry, 4 artillery, plus a battleship bombardment. He lost everything without causing a single casualty. Anyone know the odds of that happening in thee same game?
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Those are some of the worst dice ever, Kurt. Those are impressive anecdotes.
You guys do know that subs defend on a “1” and not a “2”, right? :wink:
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Yep, we were rolling for 1’s. He must break a lot of mirrors or something… I actually apologize now lol.
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Thats one in 200 chance for only one bb left, and for anzac even to do such an attack they had to be real desperate.
If someone would do such a move in TripleA and post that outcome, I would have really strong doubts about honesty and number of re-rolls he did…
Not in my wildest dreams I would dare such a move!
That is exactly what I was anticipating with ‘my’ Japanese. And I don’t think my opponent was that desparate, he simply is not that great with statistics and always hopes for the best…
Actually this happend on the second game we played that day. The first game I surrendered after my Germans had ‘won’ the battle of Paris with only 1 ART (I attacked with everything Germany can get there minus all the aircraft: 38 Attack factors), thus lost an additional 6 ARM + 2 ART + 4 MECH more than the ‘expected’ outcome.
Now that I know this particular opponent a bit better I think I should have continued playing with still a good chance to win because I won the second game by taking Moscow with 50 units after which he surrendered. -
I just defended London in a League game.
Attacking force:
17 Infantry
8 Artillery
9 Tanks
4 Fighter
4 Tacticals42 HP, 96 Power
Defending force:
1 Strategical Bomber
21 Infantry
3 Mechanized Infantry
6 Fighter
5 AAA36 HP, 73 Power
Expected outcome: +60 TUV swing. 95% win chance
After my AAA completely missed all 8 shots, I had a bad feeling. However, I still managed to win with 6 Fighters remaining.
Outcome: -109 TUV swing.
I offered a LL reroll for free :-)
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Does this thread include the mini’s too :-D
I’ve had a couple aircraft carriers sunk by subs. In the mini game, it takes anywhere from 4-7 hits to sink a CV. When a sub rolls a 6, that’s two hits against the hull damage. Once a ships hull damage is reached, she is destroyed. One memorable event was when my buddy used IJN’s I-19 and I-26, he got to roll 4 dice and got double box cars! That’s 8 hits and enough to snap my USS Hornet in two.
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I was playing a game of AAG40 with my friends, and I left holland belgium wide open for the french by mistake.
However, I attacked the 2 inf defending there with 3 tanks.
My tanks did not get a single hit in 2 rounds of dice, and the 4 french inf killed all the tanks.
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Dude, there’s a whopping 4.3% chance that he wins that battle.
This thread is for the WORST DICE EVER :lol:
Thanks for sharing anyway - good stuff :-)
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This is not the “worst dice” EVER, but they scared the crap out of me in my playoff game.
I thought I was running in PBEM mode, but THANK GOD I was only rolling in local mode (I didn’t know that until I tried to post though)
It was a “risky” battle, but it would have been worth it.
Take a look at the attack rolls:
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The bombard
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Anyone beat this?