Well I wouldn’t pretend to have a crystal ball for every possible opening, but I tell you what I’d do as Germany, if I saw the Russians build a carrier, or a bomber (let alone two of them!)…
I would buy 8 artillery pieces and 3 infantry on G1, push everything East against Moscow. Then I’d buy at least 5 armor in the second round, and another 5 armor in the third round. By this point I am in Ukraine, holding it firmly with Japanese fighter support. And since Russia lacks the requisite fodder to make viable counter attacks there is not a whole lot they can do about it but withdraw in the face of superior German numbers. As Japan I would bypass India entirely and push everything along the Szech route, flying all available fighters to reinforce the German position on the Eastern front, while I aim to stack Kazakh with my Japanese ground. By the 6th round Germany is in a very strong position to stack W. Russia, while Japan stacks Kazakh simultaneously, forcing you out of Caucasus to defend Moscow. Or maybe I nab Caucasus even earlier, since it will be that much harder to defend, especially if Russian fighters are locked on a carrier deck somewhere. If you try to pull out of India to defend Caucasus with British units, then I’d just swing south take India, and do the same thing a round later with 3 more Japanese tanks arriving each round thereafter, from the factory I snapped up. I don’t think it would make a difference how many fighters you fly in from the West, or what sort of fleet actions you set up with Allies, because by the time the Western Allies are in position to do anything meaningful with their bolstered navies, the center will collapse to Axis. Now clearly, if I am gunning this hard for Moscow, the Allies will catch more relief on the other fronts, but the other fronts won’t matter at that point. Since Axis only need to build with a Moscow focus for three consecutive rounds to set up their Moscow hit under these conditions, after that they can build pretty much whatever they want. Solid infantry for Germany, solid naval for Japan, because the units they already have in motion will be enough to take the center.
With a Ruskie carrier you’re talking 3 total ground hitpoints for your first round Russian purchase (the carrier can’t fire in the critical Moscow battle so that hitpoint doesn’t count.) That’s 3 hitpoints for Russia in the first round, to Germany’s 11. With that kind of spread you don’t even really need the Japanese to set up for a one/two punch, since the first punch by Germany will almost certainly get the job done. I suppose one could say that at least the carrier deck or the bombers might survive into the deep endgame, and help give the 2 surviving western Allies a somewhat stronger position (relatively speaking) at the start, but this would almost certainly come at the cost of Moscow. Without the center to distract the Axis after the sixth or seventh round, Axis can then turn their attention to whatever theater is weakest. All you have to do is throw everything forward with Germany, and keep the IJN alive (with a Fabian a strategy, not risking it in combats), then once the center is on lock, you’ve basically flipped the Allied situation on its head.
The only problem I can see with this, would be if the German player tries to adapt in a way that had them buying something other than just a ton of artillery and infantry in the first round, slow steady ground to push forward on Moscow and totally overtake it. Where problems enter into it, is if the German player loses their cool, and buys a bunch of armor in the first round, or buys a bunch of subs, or bombers of their own, or whatever. Then of course the advantage is skewed, because if you follow the opponents obscure purchase plan with one of your own, then you’ve basically allowed Allies a free round of purchasing with no major consequences.
This is an important point worth stressing, because there are really only two ways you can react to a magnified build from your opponent that work… Either you use it as an opportunity to make a wild magnified purchase of your own, or you try exploit the weakness (opened up by the fact that the opponent didn’t buy something more standard) and instead play conservative on purchases, but very aggressive in your attacks.
If you go with the former plan, you are often playing catch up, at least until you catch a break.
If you go with latter plan, then speed is everything, because if you don’t react immediately, you will not be able to leverage anything out of your opponent’s goof.
As for the bid. I mention it just for completeness. I’m really not a huge fan myself (of preplacement bids anyway) but it is fairly ubiquitous now, so any discussion of game balance is sure to include talk of bids.Basically bidding in A&A is process whereby the underdog side (on whatever board) is awarded a certain number of extra IPCs at the outset, in order to balance the game. So for Classic and Revised, this bid typically went to Axis (which they usually used to help Germany in Africa or the Eastern Front, or to help Japan afford an additional transport.) On the more recent boards, the bid usually goes to Allies now, which was kind of a major change post AA50. Its one of the older House Rules for Axis and Allies, which many have adopted since it gives an expedient way modify the starting balance balance, based on the relative experience of opponents.
Basically how it works, one side opens and says something like. “I will play Allies for 15 ipcs.” Then the other guy says, “well I will play them for 14” and so on. Then the first guy says “OK I’ll go down to 6 ipcs, because I really want to be USA tonight.” And the other guy says “You’re insane if you think you can beat me with just 6 ipcs on the bid! Go ahead you can have Allies!” At this point the guy who won the bid takes his 6 ipcs, spends them on a extra submarine or an extra tank or a pair of infantry, and totally crushes in an opening battle somewhere. :-D People have different rules about where the bids can go. Most people say they have to be grouped with units already on the board, and limited to one unit per territory or sz. It’s not a perfect system by any stretch, but its been in place for a while with many people. There is a certain pride in being willing to forego a bid, but that’s usually when the skill level is asymmetrical. When its gets really heated in competition, most people will play with a bid, then switch sides awarding that same amount and go 2 out of 3 to determine the ultimate victor.
Now all that said, I think I would enjoy playing a game of the sort you mention. Not because I think I would crush :-D
But rather, because I agree with you, that its just a lot more fun when players branch out and try different things. As an opponent, and especially if playing with someone in a less cut-throat game, I would probably react to magnified purchases, by making some magnified builds of my own, as opposed to just gunning on the ground (which is what I would do if we were playing for keeps, inf push). This mainly because I think the game is just more enjoyable that way, when you push things out a round and both sides build in a less orthodox here or there. Its one of the cool reasons to play with newer people, because they might not necessarily know that “best move” or “winning play”, and they might do something divergent that leads to a more dynamic and interesting kind of game overall. Running off the script is generally fun for me too, but when I do that, I admit that we’re no longer talking about the Balance of the set up objectively. We’re talking more about player personality, or the balance between individual opponents and their play styles.
