I have got to say this…
The BEST hope that the Republican Party has this election with such a weak slate of candidates is that Obama get the nomination.
Once things settle in to a 1-on-1 race R v. D, Obama is toast. Lack of record, lack of experience, and I hate to say it but the race card also… Any of the top 4 Republicans (McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Guiliani) will beat Obama. Certain of the top 3, iffy with Guiliani)
Hillary has HUGE negatives. BUT, her negatives are not as great as the negatives that Obama will have brought forward in a 1-on-1 race for the White House.
Against Hillary…
Only McCain and Huckabee can beat her. Guiliani already had “health issues” once in a race against Hillary and had to withdraw when it appeared he might lose. Thompson just has been too much “nothing” since joining the race to be a factor. McCain can appeal to the moderates and potentially draw off enough of the middle to win. Huckabee as a Baptist Minister can potentially energize the Republican base enough to win. Add in his Fair Tax support, and his whole “states rights” outlook (most recently voiced over the old Confederate Flag flap in SC) and he might edge out Hillary.
Sorry, but Thompson and Edwards are DRT (dead right there). And the third tier candidates (folks like Kusinich and Paul) are out of this after Super Tuesday (unless they choose to become election footnotes as 3rd party candidates, and I am not sure the libertarians will accept Paul as their nominee).
I agree MLXBFW has alot of negatives. Once MLXBFW gets beat in some more primary’s she will be a bit more reckless and say something that will get her in trouble.
I fail to see any real difference in political opinion between McCain and Mrs. Clinton. That’s why McCain has no chance to beat Hillary. He’s too divisive in the Republican Party. If he gets the nomination, the democrats could run Joseph Stalin and win because the Republicans just won’t go vote.
thats just stupid. :-(
and how does the crackerjack romney win by so much in nevada. who votes out there. are there alot of mormons in nevada b/c utah is so close or what? obviously anyone who voted for him isnt republican, or they were to dumb to know that he flip-floped on everything for political expediency. the huge issues you really cant change like that and not have people know your convictions are for shit.
Actually the articles I have read say that there is indeed a huge Mormon population in Nevada.
They also show him in 4th in South Carolina, which is pretty much the death knell of any chance he has to win… proof he cannot win in the South and carry the Reagan Democrats…
S. Carolina is 1 out of 50 states. Not exactly a “death knell” since you claim McCain is going to win and he has never, in his entire existence and multiple bids for Presidential Nomination, carried S. Carolina.
And the reason Romney’s doing well is because he’s the second most conservative guy in the bunch and the only one to take a failing state (Massachusetts) and make it profitable again. He’s got a record. His actions are speaking louder then the Mormon hater’s words are.
Support for that statement? He’s got the most delegates of all the Republicans running, so far.
Thompson is most conservative at the moment. And because he’s taking a very hard line, and very anti-left approach - finally - his numbers are rising faster then everyone else’s.
McCain’s loss in SC in 2000 marked the end of his campaign… lack of support in the Old South meant there was no way he could win the White House.
I am simply using historical precedent to say that a candidate that comes in FOURTH in South Carolina is doomed to fail, either in the primaries or the General Election. If you can;t get support in the Old South as a Republican, then you cannot win.
I think McCain winning in SC is a pipe dream. Thompson may win, but not McCain.
And it’s not the OLD south. The OLD south were slave owners and were democrats. “Good Old Southern Democrats.” The NEW south is conservative.
Besides, I’m getting tired of hearing that if Romney doesn’t win (insert any state name here) he is finished.
I understand being tired of pundits, etc.
But…
If you can;t win in the South as a Republican, you have a MAJOR problem come November.
NO REPUBLICAN has won the Presidency since Nixon without carrying a significant portion of the “Old South”. And Romney simply is not playing well down here. Whether it is religious bigotry or something else, I cannot say with certainty (though I personally think it is bigotry). But he is FOURTH in the south, with a vote total somewhere below McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, Hillary, Obama and Edwards, and trying like hell to stay ahead of Paul…
When you are behind THAT many candidates in what SHOULD be a Republican’s “natural environment”, sorry, you are screwed…
I don’t think McCain is going to win the south. That’s the problem. McCain has alienated most republicans with his Group of 14, his amnesty bills, his going against the rest of the party on just about every avenue.
His only claim to fame is that he called for the surge in Iraq before the orders were issued by the President.
He has one other asset in the South…
He was back stabbed by a Republican that won the Presidency and then sold out many Southern ideals.
Folks down here have a LONG memory (which is why the Confederate Flag comes up every election…). And folks remember how Bush slandered McCain in 2000 with Rove’s “Whisper Campaign”. Folks have tried to start that again THIS year, but it is backfiring.
I still say McCain wins SC by 5%, with Huckabee second and Romney 4th or worse…
Yea, I just don’t buy the “slander” crud.
That’s the difference. It sounds to me like a dirty trick being perpetrated by the democrats to conspire to get either McCain or Huckabee the nomination because they know they can crucify both of them against either of their candidates.
Thompson and Romney have the best chance against Hillary.
Romney has the best chance against Obama
IMHO that is.
So if the Dems can twist and conspire to get Republicans to nominate McCain or Huckabee, then they can glide to the white house unchallenged. As it is, Romney and Thompson would have to run almost a perfect campaign to beat Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama, but they could do it.
Jen, as far as what happened in 2000 to McCain in SC…
That is coming from someone who BOLTED from the Republican Party in 2000 after the issues I saw with GWB. I was a loyal, card-carrying Republican since before I could vote. I was a major activist and supporter of Bush 41, and voted for Dole in 96. I served in the military under Commander-in-Chief Ronald Reagan, volunteering not once, but THREE times for military service while he was in office.
GWB is NOT his Father. I had a lot of respect for Bush 41 when he ran for office. I have NONE for his son. And I have to be honest, that lack of respect for Bush 43 is carried over into giving the “benefit of the doubt” to anyone that Bush 43 slandered in 2000.
I think McCain was “hosed” in 2000.
And while I disagree with many things that McCain has done (McCain Feingold, McCain Kennedy, etc.) he still is a more honorable Republican than is our current President. And this particular former Republican might just “come home” to vote in 2008 if McCain is the nominee.
He is certainly better than Hitlery, though I am debating swallowing my loathing of Huckabee in order to get the Fair Tax signed into law…
Just from what I have been following I would think it is safe to say that you live in the north Jen. Switch is spot on that Romney has zero chance here in the south. 1 he is a mormon which is viewed as more or less a satanic cult in this neck of the woods. 2 his record on gun control is abysmal. 2 is a major major issue in elections down this way. Also a plus for McCain is he is a veteran which is a big plus here. Like Switch has said people down this way have very long memories.
McCain has no chance of the Presidency. Almost everyone in neutral polls are saying they’d vote no one before they vote McCain in the next election. That’s not a good idea.
I say Reganesque landslide victory for whoever the democrats run if McCain gets the Republican nomination. I’m calling 49+ states Blue, maybe 1 red.
Romney and Thompson are the only two hopes to beat the democrats, or at least make a serious run for the White House, which is why they’re slandering Romney and trying to get the south not to vote for him because of his religion (which is unamerican, IMHO. We came here to HAVE our religions!)
@Cmdr:
McCain has no chance of the Presidency. Almost everyone in neutral polls are saying they’d vote no one before they vote McCain in the next election. That’s not a good idea.
Mccain wins :wink:
I don’t know what polls you are reading, Jenn. :roll: But McCain has now won TWO of the polls that actually matter – the New Hampshire and now the South Carolina primaries. If the conservative Republicans can swallow their doubts about McCain and actually nominate him, I guarantee many independents (as they did in NH) will prefer McCain over a very partisan Clinton with all the baggage she and her husband carry around. If it’s McCain versus Obama, then it is experience versus NO experience which, to me, isn’t even a close race. I will admit, I was down on McCain early on, but he is shaping up as the only serious candidate with a realistic chance to win. Romney? Please, he’s trying to pass himself off as a GWB clone, but nobody in the South is going to buy that from a Mormon. And South Carolina’s results last night proves that Romney will not win here in the South, which means NO NOMINATION for Romney. Super Tuesday should spell the end of Romney’s bid, IMHO, or come damn close.
As for Huckabee, I think the trail ends here . . . Iowa was a fluke, and NOBODY outside the “true believers” is going to vote for him solely because of the “Fair Tax.”
@Cmdr:
His only claim to fame is that he called for the surge in Iraq before the orders were issued by the President.
In this time of war, when the surge seems to be “working”, I would think this would be a large chit in his favor, Jenn, no?
Yea, it is a large chit in his favor, it’s his only chit though! He’s a democrat in the Republican party, just like GWB is. I honestly don’t want another 8 years of a democrat pretending to be a republican dragging the republican title through the mud.
@JWW:
I’m pulling for Giuliani. Any other Giuliani supporters out there?
Silence……I take that as a no.
:lol:
