@taamvan @crockett36 I like the way you’re framing the problem; it’s interesting to think about whether the USA can actually prevent Germany from taking Moscow. I think Germany needs at least four turns of building to take Moscow – something like mechs and tanks on G1, G2, and G3, followed by bombers on G4. If you send all of that directly at Moscow, with no relevant Allied bid, then with normal dice you can take Moscow on G5 or G6.
The earliest the USA can arrive in a way that forces Germany to pay attention is what, US4? Even with a J1 DoW, the USA doesn’t start the game with enough of an Atlantic fleet to be a serious threat, so they have to build one on USA1. On USA2, that fleet can usually move to Gibraltar. On USA3, that fleet can move to the English Channel if you’re serious about KGF, but is probably still not strong enough to move to the North Sea, so you need to wait until a second turn of US Atlantic fleet builds can arrive before you to move to the sea zone outside Western Germany and Denmark, which would be USA4. Germany has to pay attention to that because if you take Denmark then the UK can hit Berlin on UK4.
If you have a J3 DoW, the USA can build up its Atlantic fleet on US1 and US2. You can’t move to Gibraltar until US3, but if you invest heavily enough in the Atlantic then your fleet is big enough that you can probably still move the fleet outside Western Germany on US4.
So our intuitions are different somewhere, I think. It seems to me that if the USA and UK go hard-core in the Atlantic, they can pose an existential threat to Germany on turn 4, but Germany needs to buy bombers on turn 4, not defense for the western front. I guess if Germany is rich enough then they could potentially do both, but a competent Russian player normally shouldn’t be letting Germany collect more than about 50 IPCs on G3.
Where do we disagree? Do you think Germany can knock out Moscow with only 3 turns of builds? Do you think the USA can’t build enough fleet to take the W. German sea zone on turn 4? Do you think Germany can sort of split the difference, buy some fighters on G4 and G5, and take Moscow on turn 6 or 7?