League General Discussion Thread

Could AI beat our top players in BM or PTV, low luck, no tech? I say no way….

@666 said in League General Discussion Thread:

Could AI beat our top players in BM or PTV, regular luck, no tech? I say no way….

@666 said in League General Discussion Thread:

Could AI beat our top players in BM or PTV, low luck, no tech? I say no way….

Maybe in 15 years there’ll be off-the-shelf AI that you can tell to learn and practice the game and it’ll be 3000 ELO. Perhaps unbeatable in low luck.

I think MARTI is already sentient. He knows exactly when I am at my most vulnerable, and that’s when he hits me with a dicing. I usually find that after an hour or more of crying I’m okay again.

In reference to https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/post/1724617

I have a couple gems in current games:

@Stucifer said in L24 OOB Stucifer (X) v Booper (L+48):
J1 attack on Yunnan stack

Battle in Yunnan
Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
Chinese defend with 5 infantry; Russians defend with 3 fighters
Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/8 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Chinese roll dice for 3 fighters and 5 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 7/8 hits, 3.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Japanese, 3 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 artillery owned by the Japanese and 1 bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Yunnan
1 bomber owned by the Japanese retreated
Chinese win with 3 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -46

Also this one. The BB was damaged which is why I pursued until the end.
10,000 simulations: 99.39% Chance of Victory, 0.26% Draw, 0.35% Loss

@Stucifer said in L24 PtV Stucifer (X+10) vs Adam514 (L):

Battle in 107 Sea Zone
Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers
British defend with 1 battleship
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
British win with 1 battleship remaining. Battle score for attacker is -30
Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers

–
Nerded out on the stats for the Yunnan battle.

Chance to get 4 hits on 5 infantry (4.11%) x Chance to get 3 of 3 on the fighters (29.63%)
1.22%
-and-
Chance to get 5 hits on 5 infantry (0.411%) x Chance to get 2 of 3 on the fighters (44.44%)
0.18%

So a ~1.4% chance to get 7 hits, which is actually higher than I expected

Chance to whiff completely with my units:
(2 Infantry @1: 69.44%) x (Inf + Art @2: 44.44%) x (Fighter @3: 50%) x (Tac + 2 Bombers @4: 3.7%)
0.57%
Total chance for this outcome: ~0.008%

"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”
Terry Pratchett, Mort

@FlyingBadger said in League General Discussion Thread:

"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”
Terry Pratchett, Mort

Love Terry Pratchett’s writing, always good for a chuckle. Figure if something only happens 1 out of 10,000 times, we give MARTI enough opportunities every month that there’s at least a 50% chance it happens to someone

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

That Yunnan one is incredible.

And the Chinese were invigorated beyond belief at the realization that Moscow had sent their entire airforce to protect the rice paddies

Well, to be accurate the tac bomber stayed home to fight in the motherland, and just the fighters in range went. This makes the Japan attack about a coin-flip. I’m guessing this exact scenario doesn’t occur too often, as usually the tac will come to Yunnan as well.

@Booper Yeah it was a coin flip, I was willing to commit to destroy a Russian plane or two since I attacked G1, now it will be much more difficult to seize Moscow

DANG! I should have written down what I was at so I would know if there has been a change.

@AndrewAAGamer said in League General Discussion Thread:

DANG! I should have written down what I was at so I would know if there has been a change.

i thought the same thing, … i do know i went down tho, and now my status as #1 ranked is hanging by a thread lol

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

I entered them all tonight.

Verification of accuracy of ELO data entry is still underway. Watch every day! You might go up a point! Or down.

Newly entered data checked. Only one problem - the game on August 7th between trulpen and Dawg should be OOB instead of BM. Damn fine work for one night.

@gamerman01 LOL - Thanks!