League General Discussion Thread

[Stucifer]

In reference to https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/post/1724617

I have a couple gems in current games:

@Stucifer said in L24 OOB Stucifer (X) v Booper (L+48):
J1 attack on Yunnan stack

Battle in Yunnan
Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
Chinese defend with 5 infantry; Russians defend with 3 fighters
Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/8 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Chinese roll dice for 3 fighters and 5 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 7/8 hits, 3.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Japanese, 3 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 artillery owned by the Japanese and 1 bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Yunnan
1 bomber owned by the Japanese retreated
Chinese win with 3 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -46

Also this one. The BB was damaged which is why I pursued until the end.
10,000 simulations: 99.39% Chance of Victory, 0.26% Draw, 0.35% Loss

@Stucifer said in L24 PtV Stucifer (X+10) vs Adam514 (L):

Battle in 107 Sea Zone
Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers
British defend with 1 battleship
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
British win with 1 battleship remaining. Battle score for attacker is -30
Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers

–
Nerded out on the stats for the Yunnan battle.

Chance to get 4 hits on 5 infantry (4.11%) x Chance to get 3 of 3 on the fighters (29.63%)
1.22%
-and-
Chance to get 5 hits on 5 infantry (0.411%) x Chance to get 2 of 3 on the fighters (44.44%)
0.18%

So a ~1.4% chance to get 7 hits, which is actually higher than I expected

Chance to whiff completely with my units:
(2 Infantry @1: 69.44%) x (Inf + Art @2: 44.44%) x (Fighter @3: 50%) x (Tac + 2 Bombers @4: 3.7%)
0.57%
Total chance for this outcome: ~0.008%

[FlyingBadger]

"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”
Terry Pratchett, Mort

[gamerman01]

That Yunnan one is incredible.

Obviously those Jap personnel did not believe in attacking a nasty cheesy bid stack and were completely demoralized going in.

And the Chinese were invigorated beyond belief at the realization that Moscow had sent their entire airforce to protect the rice paddies

[Stucifer]

@FlyingBadger said in League General Discussion Thread:

"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”
Terry Pratchett, Mort

Love Terry Pratchett’s writing, always good for a chuckle. Figure if something only happens 1 out of 10,000 times, we give MARTI enough opportunities every month that there’s at least a 50% chance it happens to someone

[Booper]

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

That Yunnan one is incredible.

And the Chinese were invigorated beyond belief at the realization that Moscow had sent their entire airforce to protect the rice paddies

Well, to be accurate the tac bomber stayed home to fight in the motherland, and just the fighters in range went. This makes the Japan attack about a coin-flip. I’m guessing this exact scenario doesn’t occur too often, as usually the tac will come to Yunnan as well.

[Stucifer]

@Booper Yeah it was a coin flip, I was willing to commit to destroy a Russian plane or two since I attacked G1, now it will be much more difficult to seize Moscow

[gamerman01]

A player noticed 3 months of missing game results in the ELO data during 2nd half of 2019.

I entered them all tonight.

If you didn’t play games during that time you will have very little change, but there were some noticeable tremors in the top 4. And if you did play games during that time, your game count and win % will be different.

Verification of accuracy of ELO data entry is still underway. Watch every day! You might go up a point! Or down.

[gamerman01]

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

Watch every day!

Said facetiously

[AndrewAAGamer]

DANG! I should have written down what I was at so I would know if there has been a change.

[axis-dominion]

@AndrewAAGamer said in League General Discussion Thread:

DANG! I should have written down what I was at so I would know if there has been a change.

i thought the same thing, … i do know i went down tho, and now my status as #1 ranked is hanging by a thread lol

[GovZ]

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

I entered them all tonight.

Verification of accuracy of ELO data entry is still underway. Watch every day! You might go up a point! Or down.

Newly entered data checked. Only one problem - the game on August 7th between trulpen and Dawg should be OOB instead of BM. Damn fine work for one night.

[gamerman01]

Thank you… X2

[gamerman01]

@GovZ said in League General Discussion Thread:

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

I entered them all tonight.

Verification of accuracy of ELO data entry is still underway. Watch every day! You might go up a point! Or down.

Newly entered data checked. Only one problem - the game on August 7th between trulpen and Dawg should be OOB instead of BM. Damn fine work for one night.

You checked me on all, July 1 to Sep 30, 2019?

[gamerman01]

@AndrewAAGamer said in League General Discussion Thread:

DANG! I should have written down what I was at so I would know if there has been a change.

Gotcha covered. I had taken a screen shot before entering those 3 months, just the screen starting with #1
So I can see on the overall spreadsheet, you went up 2 points

[AndrewAAGamer]

@gamerman01 LOL - Thanks!

[gamerman01]

[GovZ]

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:

You checked me on all, July 1 to Sep 30, 2019?

All of 2019 checked.

[gamerman01]

Oh, right, it went through October. I got it

[crockett36]

ABH mentioned the winner’s curse in his interview. I was wondering if that discussion has been had here. As I’ve mentioned before, everyone here who is worried about his elo is going to want the axis. The system and the setup incentivize creative axis play. Historically speaking, it rewards new ways to do evil.

I was wondering if we might start a companion system that rewards creative Allied play. For instance, we might go with a set up that has been adjusted by the agreement of previous champions with a 60 bid. This is considered too high by ABH, but the bid might then go to the Axis player. An alternative would be to give the Russians 10 infantry in their capital and the US a fighter and a battleship in and off its capital. Another possibility is to adjust down the political rules by 1. Lastly, we might just spike the US map income by 25?!

I might also suggest scraping the bid system as is. It changes the narrative of turn 1 which I think is supposed to play out. The better way to go with the feng shui of the design is to give the powers that are currently neutral more units so that the ricochet might be a bit more powerful. Placing adjustments en masse in capitals makes a lot of sense.

I suggest this for the good of the community and to better align ourselves with history and virtue.

[crockett36]

I might also encourage the league to add a version past oob, ptv, bm. I would suggest 1940, 42 version. If you think about it, it is the 1940 version 3rd edition.