@MuddSlinger Yes.
League General Discussion Thread
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Alright, I can finally chime in, but before I do:
Happy new year everybody! It’s 10 am in Central Europe so I think most players on this community are in 2024 right, or do we have any Hawaiians here?
There are 3 issues I want to address:
1) How to handle new players.
I’d like to keep it as is. @pacifiersboard said that right now, new players “should be advised to play low rated League players first.”
This is generally a good idea, no matter the system! Think about it, it would be odd to see newcomers challenge the top of top or even reigning champions in other sports too, wouldn’t it?
And even concerning their ELO ranking: While some strategic choosing of opponents might lead to a higher ELO in the short run, long-term ELO can’t be “gamed”. You will end up where you belong, eventually.
2) K-factor (sensitivity)
@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:
I eliminated range 6-10 games and just made 6+ to 50 sensitivity as it was for 11+ before.
I’m actually not very fond of that change.
Right now, game 6 has a K-factor of 90 while game 7 has a K-factor of 50. Just as an explanation: Against an equal opponent, game 6 would award ± 45 points, while game 7 gives ±25. That’s a HUGE jump. Game 6 is almost double worth as game 7.It feels horrible to lose game 6 before winning game 7.
One more reason: This gives the impression that ELO has more or less found the accurate place in the ranking after 6 (or 7) games. While I do trust the system to work for most new players after 6-7 games, any upsets or unusual results within these first couple of games would distort the ranking quite a lot. Imagine an upset (in any direction) happening in game 6, it would take longer for the system to “correct” the ranking afterwards.
I’m MUCH more in favour of a gradual K-factor decline. In fact, even the 4 values we had before
were not gradual enough for my liking.I’d prefer the following table:
The only reason I haven’t implemented it yet is because I have to adapt the formula but I will probably do it later today.
3) Counting at the beginning or the end
Originally I was completely with @gamerman01 on this. Yes, games can go on for quite a while and your opponent might (and probably will) change ELO in that timeframe: But so is their skill. And yes, early rounds have a bigger impact, althought an argument can be made that the decisive battles occur later in the game. In any way, the effect is negligible in my opinion.
@mainah 's example is actually a great argument for that ;-)
Player B with 1500 ELO is expected to win but with Player A at 1400 in the end, player B will be awarded a higher ELO change as opposed to counting at the beginning (A started at 1300). Which is fair, since apparently A got better during the play.
Now player A loses more at 1400 of course, but on the other hand, with start-ELO-counting all of these values would be different anyway. Because those other games that ended during the game between A and B, that resulted in A’s ELO going from 1300 to 1400 - well they must have started some time. Some probably before starting the game against B, so the values wouldn’t be 1300 anyways.
TLDR: The difference is negligible and it doesn’t really make a difference to count at start or beginning.HOWEVER!
You convinced me with the mass forfeits.
These do happen from time to time and even more often we have ghosts like @simon33 recently. I myself went AWOL in 2019, with multiple games against me being called as wins for my opponents.
Right now the results are entered in order of posting. so first results are being calculated first.
In @simon33 's case: The opponent who called the win first (that was @avner on Nov24) had the biggest advantage. After that call, simons Rating dropped from 1353 to 1330 so subsequents calls awarded less and less points - first @Sovietishcat on Dec 10, than myself on Dec 17 and finally @Adam514 on Dec 29.The points awarded were
Avner - 23
Sovietishcat - 19
MrRoboto - 13
Adam514 - 1Simon33 final rating: 1297
Now had we called the game in a different order (adam first, then me, then sovietishcat and avner last), the points awarded would have been:
Adam514 - 1
MrRoboto - 15
Sovietishcat - 20
Avner - 21Simon33 final rating: 1296
So the order of calling benefitted the first callers over the last callers (except Adam because he is so far from simon, that game is always worthless).
HOWEVER HOWEVER
As you can see, the differences in points are marginal at best! We arrived at a point in the discussion, where we are trying to tweak the absolute nuances. Counting at beginning or end won’t shake up the rankings, nor will it lead to any substantial rating changes.
There are arguments for counting at the end (better reflects the improvements opponents make, especially when not absolute veterans with 100+games under their belt), there are arguments for counting at the beginning (fairer for mass forfeits and ghosts).
My nod goes to counting at the beginning, if that’s also fine with @gamerman01 and some others.
One last note
I enjoy the eagerness of everybody to find loopholes in the system and to close any doors that some might try to exploit.
But remember: You might be able to “game” the system and thus artifically increase your ELO higher than it should be by maybe 30-50 points (if at all!), but that would only be a momentary snapshot! A higher ELO will subsequently decrease the worth of future wins and also INCREASE the worth of future losses.
You WILL end up exactly where your skill level is eventually, there is no way around that. It’s like the algorithms of social media feeds. You can tell yourself you’re not interested in this or that, but the algorithm can’t be tricked and knows the truth ;-)The ONLY way to climb the rankings sustainable beyond a short-term burst is to actually get better.
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@MrRoboto
Well that covers it Thank you.Stay in school and learn maths kids! All my attention and deep thinking and pondering of what if’s in the end mattered a 0.1% temporary difference to 2 players.
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This is another MrRoboto post that I appreciate very much.
@MrRoboto said in League General Discussion Thread:
While some strategic choosing of opponents might lead to a higher ELO in the short run, long-term ELO can’t be “gamed”. You will end up where you belong, eventually.
Yes.
2) K-factor (sensitivity)
@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:
I eliminated range 6-10 games and just made 6+ to 50 sensitivity as it was for 11+ before.
I’m actually not very fond of that change.
Right now, game 6 has a K-factor of 90 while game 7 has a K-factor of 50. Just as an explanation: Against an equal opponent, game 6 would award ± 45 points, while game 7 gives ±25. That’s a HUGE jump. Game 6 is almost double worth as game 7.Yep. Playing around before the new year starts. K factors can be tinkered with for at least a month, if not more, into 2024 in my opinion. It’s not like we’re going to change them next December until the ratings are desirable for us. We’ll settle on some scale before long. Higher k factors early, declining over # of games played, and nothing crazy, is what I want to see. No arguments otherwise.
I’m MUCH more in favour of a gradual K-factor decline.
That’s cool
The only reason I haven’t implemented it yet is because I have to adapt the formula but I will probably do it later today.
Awesome
3) Counting at the beginning or the end
TLDR: The difference is negligible and it doesn’t really make a difference to count at start or beginning.
This.
It’s easier to record the resignation date when the result is posted. If we record the start date for a game when the game ends, then the rankings will jump around for everyone. If you record it as the resignation date, then only the ratings for the 2 players will change. If I’m understanding this correctly, then I really think we should continue recording the game end date.HOWEVER!
You convinced me with the mass forfeits.
So the order of calling benefitted the first callers over the last callers
Of course. Because each game result recorded is a loss. Chalk it up to the uniqueness of our game (you don’t resign 10 tennis matches at once). The ELO system is designed for sequential game results, not simultaneous. Right?
HOWEVER HOWEVER
As you can see, the differences in points are marginal at best! We arrived at a point in the discussion, where we are trying to tweak the absolute nuances. Counting at beginning or end won’t shake up the rankings, nor will it lead to any substantial rating changes.
This.
My nod goes to counting at the beginning, if that’s also fine with @gamerman01 and some others.
Please let me know what you think after considering my 2 points above.
One last note
I enjoy the eagerness of everybody to find loopholes in the system and to close any doors that some might try to exploit.
:)
You WILL end up exactly where your skill level is eventually, there is no way around that.
You can run but you can’t hide. And most of us can’t quit playing.
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@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:
You can run but you can’t hide. And most of us can’t quit playing.
LOL
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Playoff brackets are set!
See the post game results thread for more information
Farmboy just won the Balanced Mod championship on New Years’ Eve, and Avner won the 2nd BM playoff championship on New Years’ Day!
And today we start the 2023 playoffs!
Incredible! -
I made a couple of errors, but Im curious about the dice rolling mechanism…seems in a few battles that the dice are very skewed badly…any general rule I should follow with the dice rolling mechanics used? thanks
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is china limited with what they can get on the opening bid?
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Yes, only inf
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can i get the 2.6 download link please.
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@dawgoneit I’ve looked all over and con’t find it
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@dawgoneit better an o than a u Lol can’t
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Hi @dawgoneit
Here is latest https://github.com/triplea-game/triplea/releases/tag/2.6.14615
I assume you are familiar with the install ? If not, ask :)
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ah … I see mainah already on it lol :)
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@mainah thank you sir
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@dawgoneit said in League General Discussion Thread:
can i get the 2.6 download link please.
Is this what you are looking for?
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@oysteilo yes it is. can i have both 2.5 and 2.6 downloaded at the same time? I have games in both. If so how?
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@dawgoneit 2.5 saves will work in 2.6 but not vice versa
yes you can have both. Put 2.6 in a different folder
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@dawgoneit said in League General Discussion Thread:
@oysteilo yes it is. can i have both 2.5 and 2.6 downloaded at the same time? I have games in both. If so how?
here’s an example
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@HammerTime said in League General Discussion Thread:
I made a couple of errors, but Im curious about the dice rolling mechanism…seems in a few battles that the dice are very skewed badly…any general rule I should follow with the dice rolling mechanics used? thanks
It might be I’m not understanding the concern but I think the dice mechanic approximates the outcomes of real dice. Any given roll might represent an extreme, but over the course of many rolls (sometimes over many games) it does average out.
One way to manage that is to play to reduce risk. So you make sure that you always have the best odds possible (approachng 100% where possible) in the battles that you choose to fight.
Another option is to play with low luck dice which reduces the uncertainty of the dice.
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