Safe Russia strategy

FWIW, with a 2ftr 1tac scramble I get 2.66 remaining units if one fighter is brought from London and 4.34 if two fighters are brought (for 5 total planes).

The UK has to lose planes to keep ships alive in SZ97. This might make sense if Taranto and Tobruk are combined because Egypt is left so weak. If Ethiopia is done instead, the attack on Egypt is only a 41% possibility even without the blocker in Alexandria. Perhaps Italy would do so.

You generally have the Cruiser in SZ96, which will tie up probably the sub and bomber , while the dd and cruiser might go after the French ships. If you are willing to go for a coin flip on one you can attack both.

Ok, so there is a strong possibility of not making the NO even with the scramble.

Not sure whether anyone else has said it, but holding Moscow is often not necessary, if the allies still hold Egypt.

As G will usually have odds on Moscow at some point, then saving that Russian stack by abandoning Moscow and withdrawing south to the Middle East can mean that losing Moscow does not lose the game.

The experienced contributors to this thread will know all this, but thought it should be stated for any less experienced players.

Or perhaps those experienced players will tell me why I am wrong! :roll:

@Private:

Not sure whether anyone else has said it, but holding Moscow is often not necessary, if the allies still hold Egypt.

As G will usually have odds on Moscow at some point, then saving that Russian stack by abandoning Moscow and withdrawing south to the Middle East can mean that losing Moscow does not lose the game.

The experienced contributors to this thread will know all this, but thought it should be stated for any less experienced players.

At some point defending Moscow is just protecting 3 IPC (unless if you hold Irak and the African territories) and the troops and the Allied planes sitting there can be tied up at pretty minimal cost for Germany (stack of troops strong enough to hold near Moscow which is is being reinforced with cheap units, + planes + fast movers sitting elsewhere).

Russia holding Bryansk for as long as possible is important. After that, not losing Russia while keeping pressure on Stalingrad and Caucasus seems to be the strategy. Many of the German players build lots of mechs and later add some tanks that can head south and really cause big problems. Ideally Russia is able to keep this mass busy long enough (e.g., trading territories and chipping away at it, or forcing that force to stay north) for the UK to get their act together.

UK fighters are particularly valuable because they can shift from protecting the Russian front to protecting the Middle East and they also add to the strike value of the Middle East stack.

@ShadowHAwk:

I never had that result, first the UK takes 1 or 2 hits on the carrier you got 21 defence and 5 hitpoints vs 22 attack and 9 hitpoints.

A game with a bid will normally add a sub. You mention taking hits on the planes which is about what I said. If the Cruiser is there and SZ96 then yes, you are exceedingly unlikely to get the NO.

if anyone is interested in taking on a league or non leage game for 0 bid to show I am wrong I am up for it. I am not a very good axis player but feel confident at this one. text me

I am betting that nobody takes you up on that offer, Oysteilo.  My experience with people running around saying that the game is balanced also insist on playing Axis, or they are more casual gamers who balk about a TripleA game where you can more carefully plan your moves and calculate the probabilities.  They also don’t realize the quality difference between people who play 10 games a year in local groups compared with the hardcore League players who are doing an order of magnitude more matches and has in depth experience with a much wider range of game situations.

@ShadowHAwk:

If i got time ill take you on Oysteilo as i like a challenge and i still think i could make it happen.

Most experienced leage players are experienced with exactly the same game over and over again with little variation, i prefer to think more outside the norm.

That would be fun to do! Let me know. If you like we could start a non league game and just have it run in the background and you can post whenever you have time. When I play with one of my friends we never use bids either, but we drink beer and wine and then after a few rounds it is a balanced game  :-D :-D

Just start the thread here if you don’t want it to count for league: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?board=40.0

@ShadowHAwk:

@oysteilo:

@ShadowHAwk:

If i got time ill take you on Oysteilo as i like a challenge and i still think i could make it happen.

Most experienced leage players are experienced with exactly the same game over and over again with little variation, i prefer to think more outside the norm.

That would be fun to do! Let me know. If you like we could start a non league game and just have it run in the background and you can post whenever you have time. When I play with one of my friends we never use bids either, but we drink beer and wine and then after a few rounds it is a balanced game  :-D :-D

O yes on the forum i guess, will have to see how to handle that, guess we can post tripleA save files or something?

I think what I need is your email and you need to register that email here http://dice.tripleawarclub.org/register.php
This is to ensure autentic dice and that neither of us are using fake dice. I can set up the game and we can take it from there.

If you haven’t played by forum before look at this thread: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=27127.0

@ShadowHAwk:

@oysteilo:

@ShadowHAwk:

@oysteilo:

@ShadowHAwk:

If i got time ill take you on Oysteilo as i like a challenge and i still think i could make it happen.

Most experienced leage players are experienced with exactly the same game over and over again with little variation, i prefer to think more outside the norm.

That would be fun to do! Let me know. If you like we could start a non league game and just have it run in the background and you can post whenever you have time. When I play with one of my friends we never use bids either, but we drink beer and wine and then after a few rounds it is a balanced game�  :-D :-D

O yes on the forum i guess, will have to see how to handle that, guess we can post tripleA save files or something?

I think what I need is your email and you need to register that email here http://dice.tripleawarclub.org/register.php
This is to ensure autentic dice and that neither of us are using fake dice. I can set up the game and we can take it from there.

O yes i think i did this before ( i normaly play in tripleA lobby or Offline )
Just use tripleA with dice server and then post the savegame right?

exactely, let me know when you are ready.

The Safe Russia strategy?

Play Axis against someone who thinks the Allies have even odds

No need to taunt taamvan. It is possible to win with zero bid. Skills and luck plays into it, but I will say this, low luck and equal (good) skills=allies are doomed.  But maybe my opponent has some fancy moves I am not prepared for. In any case I think we play dice and no tech

Been gone for a while. I will gladly play someone as Allies without a bid. I’m not afraid to lose and tend to play outside the box so maybe someone will see something they missed and can incorporate into their games. I prefer to play a live networked game. It might take us a while to play but we’ll figure it out a few turns at a time. PM me and I will send contact info.

@seancb:

Been gone for a while. I will gladly play someone as Allies without a bid. I’m not afraid to lose and tend to play outside the box so maybe someone will see something they missed and can incorporate into their games. I prefer to play a live networked game. It might take us a while to play but we’ll figure it out a few turns at a time. PM me and I will send contact info.

You’re a good sport, but I hate to tell you the allies have no chance. GL! :) This map has a couple egregious errors that are just too hard for the allies to overcome.

I wasn’t really trying to taunt you, oytello, but rather offer something important up

I have noticed that exploiting your opponents (mis)conceptions or idiosyncrasies is a very important part of winning.  I have talked with people who say

1. I don’t SBR, ever
2. I don’t intercept, ever
3. I don’t bid, ever
4. I don’t build MiC in X place
5. I prefer KGF/KJG
6. I only play (one team)

etc. and I have found that once you know your opponents preferences, it can dramatically alter your play because you can tailor your predictions to his predilections.    If he HATES SBR, you don’t need to leave planes protecting your factories.  Some people even say “We don’t play with SBR (or something else) because that’s broken”;  if that were somehow true, it gives a big advantage to the Russians and UK (as bombing out the Russians/London/India is crippling);  the rules permit SBR whether any given player likes it or thinks its a good idea or not.  As a further example, if you don’t personally do SBR, or think it is worth it, then the Axis is weaker (because they have lost a tool that they can normally exploit simply because you don’t like it), so that would make me tend to want to play the allies (since I will SBR with either team).

So, know your opponent, its the path to victory. (sez Sun Tzu).

another example would someone who says “I always/never invade Russia with Japan”…if they tell you that, you’ll know exactly what you need to do to protect that region (in some cases, if they wont cross an invisible border NO MATTER WHAT; leave nothing behind).

I think you are talking about weak opponents Taamvan. A good player doesn’t use the term “never” when describing how they play. You have to be malleable and adjust your play according to what your opponent does. Most of the time there are good moves and bad moves, and if your opponent leaves themselves open to be exploited than you exploit them regardless of the fact that in most games a good opponent won’t allow you that option.

I have never seen a good League player pass up an easy opportunity to bomb Moscow or other critical factory if left unprotected.  You risk losing 12/6 =2 PUs for an average return of 5.5*5/6 = 4.6 PUs.  You rarely see that kind of 2.3:1 payback ratio for any attack.  The only reason not to do the raid is if there are better uses for the bombers.  I also don’t see any good League player fail to scramble/intercept if the payback is good.  Those kind of rookie mistakes are not seen for people who have played 50+ matches.

Bombing Moscow is usually a critical part of capturing the city or enfeebling the country.  If you send 4 bombers and necessary fighter escorts, you will do 17-20 points of damage and have a 2/3rds chance of losing a 12 point bomber.  That will reduce the defensive stack on Moscow by 6 infantry = 12 pips, while potentially losing 4 pips of attack.  That is a huge game changer.  The main way to prevent the raid is funneling UK fighters to Moscow.

Thank you Bomber Harris. Couldn’t say it better myself. I wish bombers had a 2 attack value. That way they would be used more for the purposes of strat bombing and not be an all around amazing unit. Well not an amazing defensive unit, but an a good offensive kind of equates to a good defense since you deprive your opponent of being offensive by having the bombers that can reach everywhere! lol.