I can’t believe I’m going to draw myself into this debate, but…here goes.
I come at it from the opposite perspective, mantlefan. I’ve been looking for quite awhile, and I have not seen a single Axis strategy posted either here or on Larry Harris’ forums that leads to a solid chance of an Axis victory. Even on the few play-by-forum games I’ve skimmed, Axis wins are usually either (a) fluke dice, or (b) bad Allied decisions. Die rolls are part of the game, but if you require them to have a chance at victory I wouldn’t call that game balance.
I can say from our own games that Russia has never fallen. Ever. It’s been an unbroken string of Allied wins. Even with Germany making ~60 and Russia making 25-30, Moscow has held for long enough. We haven’t even tried Sea Lion first and given Russia the extra buildup time…our games have all been variants of Barbarossa. The Axis have attacked G2 (once), G3, G4, and even G5, and still Moscow has never fallen. We’ve had tank/mech builds, ICs in Romania, no ICs in Romania, air force with artillery/infantry, Leningrad first, Stalingrad first, ignoring both and heading for Moscow. All no go. To your point: we don’t routinely see Russia in Norway or even Finland, but it hasn’t ever mattered.
The worst off Russia has ever been was last game, when my regular opponent decided to smash through Turkey to get to the Middle-East/Caucasus and then come up from the south in addition to coming from the west. That was pretty close, and the UK actually had to send some units up from India to reinforce. Of course, by then, Germany had already lost Western Europe, Italy wasn’t anywhere near Cairo anymore, Russia WAS in Norway, and most of the true neutrals were Allied territories thanks to the invasion of Turkey. Taking Moscow would have prolonged the game, but that’s about it. Still, it was a close (if ultimately meaningless) fight. :-D
Now, the US has pretty consistently been spending something in the Atlantic in all of those scenarios (except on US 1). Even without 100% Pacific spending, though, Japan has still had major problems. I don’t know how much detail you are looking for in outlining strategies, and I don’t really understand why you need specifics for the US spending 100% in the Pacific (build a giant fleet, sink the Japanese fleet, throw some transports in to retake islands). However, I can outline what I do do. It’s not 100% Pacific spending, but it’s been working just fine…
When I play Allies, first turn US is two carriers and a battleship for the Pacific. This immediately brings the US up to near-parity with the starting Japanese fleet. Fleet moves from Hawaii back to the Western US, stuff on the Philippines starts heading back too. Planes from Honolulu and the continental US land on the new carriers. After US 1, you basically only have to slightly exceed Japanese naval builds, though I do often spend more than that depending on the European situation. ANZAC and the UK can handle the rest.
US 2 everything sails towards Hawaii, including the stuff from the Philippines (via the Solomons) if it doesn’t get sunk. US 2 buys depend a bit on what Japan does…a few destroyers/subs or maybe strategic bombers depending on where their fleet is. The Atlantic gets destroyers, transports, and maybe a land unit (exact mix depends on which naval forces are still afloat in that theater). I spend about 60/40 Atlantic/Pacific on US 2, with the goal of landing 4 transports on the European half of the map on US 4.
US 3 Japan generally loses the Carolines…committing to its defense really hampers their ability to escort transports and keep pressure on everywhere else. Even if Japan parks their whole fleet in the Carolines and I don’t think the US can win the fight, it’s often worth attacking anyway. It opens up a lot of opportunity for ANZAC and the UK if the Japanese fleet is trivialized, and the US can rebuild their lost fleet a lot faster at this stage of the game. I only stay away from the Carolines if Japan has been spending significantly on naval units to reinforce it, or if they’ve tried something unusual like going for Alaska. In the Atlantic it’s time to go grab the free infantry on Brazil. US 3 buys are generally split about 50/50 between a Pacific fleet and an Atlantic mix of air, sea, and land + transports.
Once the Carolines are gone, Japan is in trouble. Going to India in force means not defending most of the Pacific for 3 rounds. Japan loses the Philippines, followed by their DEI NO. Australia is easier for Japan to take if you do it quickly, but harder to hold and there’s not as much strategic advantage to owning it once you’re there. Japan crumbles incredibly quickly once they hit the tipping point and can’t hold the DEI. It’s usually only 2-3 rounds after that before they can’t sustain an offense, and maybe another couple after that until they are trivialized.
On US 4+, if Japan is still floating a navy, I generally buy a new loaded carrier or replacement airplanes for empty carriers, depending. Throw in 1-2 subs or destroyers as cheap support, and that leaves somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of your income for the Atlantic depending on NOs. I don’t generally have many active US transports in the Pacific…I leave that to ANZAC and the UK, as they need the income more. If Japan has lost their navy and can’t or isn’t rebuilding, I might throw loaded transports out there instead of the cheap naval units.
Turn 4 is when the US starts taking targets of opportunity if Japan is out of position. If the Japanese fleet is sitting on the Philippines or some other standoff location, that’s also fine. The US still has more income at this point as well as two additional allies running around the Pacific. Just keep building up until you can smash their fleet…the more they spend on offense in Asia, the quicker they fall behind at sea and get crushed.
Now, how can Japan match the US naval builds and still post some kind of credible threat on land? They have to be spending about 40 just to keep up at sea, and that doesn’t even include ANZAC’s purchases. They need another 20+ to keep some kind of offense going vs. China and India. How are they making 65-70IPC (or, I suppose, eliminating a mainland opponent) by J 3? We can’t find a way for Japan to get it all together fast enough without either (a) bringing the US into the war on J 1, or (b) buying a bunch of carriers to get their air force out to sea. Either of those strategies creates a bunch of other problems. Getting the US into the war early lets them stick a giant fleet in the Pacific (or even SZ 6) very quickly while still landing in the Atlantic by US 4 or 5. Buying carriers and moving the Japanese air force out to sea seems to work better, but it slows them down in Asia and time isn’t on their side with a lower income. You’re counting on Germany to win in that case, and as I mentioned Moscow has always held long enough for the UK and the US to be landing in Europe in force.
If there is indeed a sound Axis strategy, I’d love to hear it. It’s my turn to play Axis next and I’m sick of seeing them lose :-) I’m almost desperate enough to try Sea Lion, though if G3 Sea Lion is the only viable German opening I’d still argue that this version of Alpha has problems (and I’m not at all sure that G3 Sea Lion has a bright future).
Incidentally, I can’t believe some people this thread wanted to make China more powerful. CHINA. Japan faces four opponents, and even the least powerful of them is supposed to put up some kind of fight? Where is Japan supposed to make progress if every one of those four opponents is a legitimate source of resistance? That’s like saying France should be able to stick around until G3-G4. The Axis start with fewer units on the board AND less income. They need to make progress rapidly somewhere to stand any chance at all.