L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3

[axis-dominion]

not worth continuing this one, when 110 gets only 1 hit lol

i’ll post. gg

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion wow. Those were quite the dice. Both 110 and also 106. Happy to do a rematch on the same terms, obviously.

[axis-dominion]

@farmboy said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

@axis-dominion wow. Those were quite the dice. Both 110 and also 106. Happy to do a rematch on the same terms, obviously.

nah i’m done lol

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion fair enough. But when do you want a rematch, let me know. The dice here cheated me out of a good game!

[axis-dominion]

with that full gamble scramble the game is way too luck based especially if it goes extreme one way or the other like it did here. if it went extreme the other way it’d be gg for the allies. not sure how to fix that other than for G to go ultra conservative and only attack 110, then the game opening options become much more narrow and less exciting… i think i need to go back to giving this game a rst for a while, after i wrap up my two other games. results like this really turn me off from an otherwise very fun game.

[axis-dominion]

i’ve only lost 3 games out of like 25 this year, and TWO of them were ended in the first round like this with extremely bad luck. the only other loss was a very good game against adam

[axis-dominion]

and that loss to adam was something like 37 rounds

[gamerman01]

@axis-dominion said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

not sure how to fix that other than for G to go ultra conservative and only attack 110, then the game opening options become much more narrow and less exciting…

You experienced a ridiculous G1 and it’s frustrating, and I risk irritating a frustrated player, but I think you might appreciate:

Attacking only 110 is a good option

In the 2014 championship game, Axis player attacked 111 only (even skipped 110 entirely) and won the game (but was OOB and bid 21 and a long time ago).
Strategy involved hammering Paris with overwhelming air and sneaking mech/armor to Yugo G1, with a slingshot to Romania accomplished
2 subs at 106 (no bid there) and 2 subs at 91 (bid sub there), so safe attacks all around. Subs freed up from 110 hit other targets, 109 DD can’t hit the subs in both places

This strategy avoided both a disaster in 110 and also Paris.

Skipping 110 avoided the risk and allowed subs and planes to go elsewhere. Unconventional, but safe and effective. 110 + 111 is aggressive and very popular because it usually works.

[gamerman01]

@axis-dominion said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

i’ve only lost 3 games out of like 25 this year, and TWO of them were ended in the first round like this with extremely bad luck. the only other loss was a very good game against adam

That’s nearly perfect

I admire you for being a pure A&A player,
not tweaking or
house-ruling or
doing the 1 re-roll per game thing
(that people decide to do after experiencing a horrid G1 battle, but you had several)

Resigning and counting it as a complete league game - that’s purist, but I think the honorable way

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

@axis-dominion said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

not sure how to fix that other than for G to go ultra conservative and only attack 110, then the game opening options become much more narrow and less exciting…

You experienced a ridiculous G1 and it’s frustrating, and I risk irritating a frustrated player, but I think you might appreciate:

Attacking only 110 is a good option

In the 2014 championship game, Axis player attacked 111 only (even skipped 110 entirely) and won the game (but was OOB and bid 21 and a long time ago).
Strategy involved hammering Paris with overwhelming air and sneaking mech/armor to Yugo G1, with a slingshot to Romania accomplished
2 subs at 106 (no bid there) and 2 subs at 91 (bid sub there), so safe attacks all around. Subs freed up from 110 hit other targets, 109 DD can’t hit the subs in both places

This strategy avoided both a disaster in 110 and also Paris.

Skipping 110 avoided the risk and allowed subs and planes to go elsewhere. Unconventional, but safe and effective. 110 + 111 is aggressive and very popular because it usually works.

yeah, sadly choosing only 110 (or any other super conservative alternative) is the only really safe way to go in top competitive play, especially a playoff game, as that scramble basically allows the possibility for the dice to decide the game right away, without there being any skill involved at all. i think this is very unfortunate and further limits the variety of openings that are feasible, which i already feel has gotten fairly narrow over the years due to the high bids that are typically made with heavy emphasis in the atlantic.

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion Of the 3 wins I’ve had against you, 2 were based on G1 scramble decisions. The other one in 2020, you were allies and the scramble was pretty disastrous (although moreso in 111). So I have only had one win not determined by the dice.

I’m sure these dice are very much on the margin of possible outcomes. So a small fraction of 1% I’m sure. The reverse (the British get diced this badly) is, probably a relatively more likely outcome, but still a rare one.

In most cases though the outcome will be closer to the average, that the British lose their fleet and air and the Germans lose their subs and 3-4 air. And that trade is definitely worth it. Even taking 2 german air is good enough (even though that is a worse TUV outcome than if I don’t scramble).

I thought it was worth walking through how I’m thinking about this. And maybe that speaks to what are some other possible options for the axis are that don’t simply ignore 111 (or 110).

I go for it for the above reason that the likely outcome is a trade for air. But also knowing that I have a 10% chance of winning a game decisive battle (and that this battle can be pyhrric for the axis even in victory). So the odds of turning the game dramatically in my favour on this battle are somewhat higher than 10%. So I have a small chance of a game deciding disaster, a not insignificant chance of winning the game outright and a likely outcome of trading my air for 2-4 German air.

Also since I know 111 is likely one you are going to retreat from before I lose that fig, I should have at least one UK fig still alive if 110 goes more poorly. In situations where I think you are fighting to the end in 111, I have to think seriously about whether I can handle losing all 4 air.

Had the Battleship been sacrificed and gone to 110 instead of a sub, I would have to rethink this since it might absorb the hits from my air and save your air. Or had you not done 106, you could have added a sub to 111 and a fighter to 110, and I probably don’t go for it either. The odds are worse, the TUV outcome is comparable to not scrambling, and so the chances of you getting through this with the loss of only 1 or 2 air are much higher.

I scrambled last time too with the G1 transport build. It wasn’t nearly these dice but it wasn’t a bad result for the allies. I lost all 4 air but was able to take out 5 of yours (We both had phenomenal 111 roles). Nonetheless, had you gone the same route, I was going to think about that again since I thought losing that air made my UK1 decisions more difficult.

Another reason to do it though is to force the Germans to play more conservatively and let me save the fleet. If my opponents know that I will and so that becomes information that shapes their play in future games.

I agree to that the allied focus on the atlantic bid limits the game. But I don’t think htere is anywhere else to go unless one knows that their opponent favours a J1 DOW. The atlantic is the only place where one can be sure that the bid is relevant round 1.

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion @gamerman, I was looking at our game history and I’m listed as winning another game on April 13th 2022 against AD. Don’t recall that and don’t see it in the league history. I was trying to see if I could figure out what that is referencing, but thought it was worth flagging.

[gamerman01]

I don’t see it either.
It’s possible a later post brought it to a different point in history, but if you or AD keep records of your own games, let me know and it’s easy to add back.

So I deleted it.

There was that game a couple weeks earlier between you and it’s in there, and there was our game that was the same day. I’d chalk it up to confusion but the bid amount is different.

ANYWAY - 2022 was entered in the early days of entering all the past games and a zealous volunteer went through 2022 before I got a chance. It was supposed to be verified, but hasn’t been.

There have been more than a few errors in that time span. Apparently I need to double check all those.
Oh shoot, we have from 2019 to 2023 that were not officially double checked and they were entered before we were recording initials of the player who did the data entry.

Would be fun to check them and correct errors! If you verify entries, just enter your initials in the data checked column

For now, that should have bounced AD even higher in the stratosphere

[gamerman01]

@farmboy Dittos to the 95% that I understood

[axis-dominion]

thanks @farmboy for pointing that mistake out and @gamerman01 for correcting it. i haven’t had a chance to verify my games, i know adam had found a mistake in one of the matches between us as well. i’ve played so many games that it doesn’t surprise me there’d be a few errors lol

also, just for fun, i asked chatgpt to calculate the odds of that 1st round combat in 110 and after a lot of calculations this is what it computed:

[gamerman01]

Does that probability include the tiny chance that the result was even worse, or is it the probability of that exact result only?

<ducks for cover>

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Does that probability include the tiny chance that the result was even worse, or is it the probability of that exact result only?

<ducks for cover>

yeah it’s simplictically just that exact result… so it doesn’t include if it was the worst possible outcome lol

[GovZ]

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

There have been more than a few errors in that time span. Apparently I need to double check all those.
Oh shoot, we have from 2019 to 2023 that were not officially double checked and they were entered before we were recording initials of the player who did the data entry.

Would be fun to check them and correct errors! If you verify entries, just enter your initials in the data checked column

Now that my work deadline is over, I can go back to checking the data. July 2019 is checked - the only change needed was a missing game on 7/16/19 - BM3: AtV (L+0) over Dawg (X).

For now, that should have bounced AD even higher in the stratosphere

Umm, so either I’m really baked, or all of August, September, & October 2019 are missing from the data. That would be one more win for AD and several more for FB.

[gamerman01]

I thought I’d lost you for awhile, shoulda tagged you but you sniffed it out anyway

3 months of 2019 not even entered. Guess that would have been found soon since we were going to start double checking, but good grief.

I never played a game in 2019 so didn’t notice.
Some of those recent years were done (or not done, as the case may be) by volunteers when Roboto opened up the entry task to anyone who wanted, like wikipedia style or something

OK, GovZ will dive back in and maybe I will sometime too.
3 months more data will make things more accurate. No one has noticed their games weren’t all in there.

Let’s get 'er done before 12/31, playoff implications.

[JDOW]

@GovZ said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

Games like this is why I prefer no low luck.
Gamblers ans those who watch the gambles need being reminded from time to time that aggressive play can lead to quick game losses:-)

@axis-dominion game on, we await #4.
play a safe opener this time and show if you can beat the champ the „boring“ way or whether good dice early on are required to stand a chance vs Farmboy‘s deadly Allies.