The new ELO-based ranking system

[farmboy]

For playoffs, we can try it and see how it goes. I continue to have concerns though. I understand that if someone new wins 8 games in a row their ranking may jump into the top 8 or if someone normally strong loses a bunch of games, they will drop down. But I still think given the small number of games played in a year we may find that things get more locked in. Players that don’t quite do that well might still have done well enough in a year to join the playoffs (but may still end up on the outside). And I don’t expect top players to ever do that badly.

And I expect that as we go back in time, we are going to see a few players ELO moved into the low-mid 2000s. I understand that ELO growth slows as players move up, but between 2018-2020, JDOW wins 34 and loses 1, Adam wins 55 and loses 5, and AD wins 88 and loses 24. Maybe I don’t fully appreciate how an ELO will accommodate that data (and minimize its impact), but I suspect it will make catching those players close to unreachable in the short term.

We also might find with the numbers that are interested, and the number of players that move on each year, that newer players aren’t trapped on the outside so we may not need to over think it.
But one option, if there are issues, is to use ELO to determine one’s ranking (and one’s tier), but PPG in a year is still used to determine playoffs (where the points per game would be tied to the tier produced by the ELO ranking). If the sheet is automated, maybe that doesn’t complicate it too much.

[Stucifer]

but I suspect it will make catching those players close to unreachable in the short term.

As long as they get a game with them the ELO recalibration will be quick. If a player with 0-3 games completed beat one of them with a 600 rating difference that would result in about -65 points for them and +130 for the new player. Do this three times and the points reduce somewhat but they should still be around an 1800 ELO after just 3 games, clearly a top-tier player with a rating similar to GeneralDisarray, Ghostglider, ksmckay, and Pejon_88

[farmboy]

@mr_stucifer I agree that if someone plays the top players and has a winning streak, I’m sure they can get in in just a few games. But if someone plays at the level of the top players then they might win 4 games and lose 4 games. In the current ppg system they would likely be competitive enough to make the playoffs. But in an elo I suspect that very good players would need more games because they are going to also lose some games.

[gamerman01]

@Adam514 said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

I don’t think rating changes should be dependent on bid. Both players consented to that bid, presumably for balance reasons. It’s what both players are satisfied playing with. No need to put a rating factor on that.

Of course I totally agree with this about ratings and bids.

I’d be interested in getting a higher rating for how fast my opponents give up, but that’s a bit problematic as well.

🤓🤐💪

[MrRoboto]

Some concerns about the ELO system, particularly for playoff ranking, are absolutely understandable.

And I absolutely have to admit: that particular case that farmboy created (a new, unknown player going 4-4 against the top players) would be slightly better represented by the old/current PPG system!
He would collect 4x4 + 4x8 = 48 points = 6.0 PPG and would put him in Tier M, on rank 7

And unfortunately, in ELO he would probably be rated a bit too low for achieving 4-4 against the best players:!

However, as someone (I think it was even farmboy itself) already pointed out:

• There is ALWAYS a case where a system doesn’t work perfectly, you can always create special circumstances.
• For example in the PPG system, Karl7 is #2, which is certainly questionable since all of his wins are against mediocre or low-skilled players (myself included!)
• I do think that this particular case is very theoretical and not very likely to happen (but you can correct me if I’m wrong and it happened before!).
• That player would still be #4 (of the active players) and rightly make the playoff. Even if Gamerman, Pejon and Bombsaway all manage to complete 6 games, that player would still be included
• I admit that the system works best for players who complete around 15 games or more so with more games coming in for that newcomer, the system won’t fail him over time

Concerning bids impacting the rating or not:
You convinced me! Enthusiastic and energetic me thought this was a cool idea and I wanted the system as sophisticated as can be. But I agree: it’s overcomplicating things and bids are (at least so far) not used to balance things, but to agree on sides.
Scratch that idea!

[MrRoboto]

One more thing:

I designed the specific math and factors (K-factor and F-Factor) with the results I have seen and the experience I had here.
What I’m saying: This particular ELO system is not a simple 1:1 copy of chess, in fact I got inspired by the old League-of-Legends system (LoL is the most popular esport-game).

So it is designed on real, past results. But if we notice that it doesn’t serve our particular purposes or if we see some players ranked unfairly, we can always tweak the math behind it to better represent our community!

[gamerman01]

It’s hard to get it right with a new player.

Dawg just defeated donutgold and with ELO, got a lot of points. No matter what donutgold goes on to do, Dawg has the points (for lack of a better way of putting it)

So Top players could prey on new players because 1500 is probably higher than they would normally be (in all my years of experience), and bottom players could prey on them as well.

Actually, all players could benefit from getting to the new player, if new players are below average skill/experience.

It’s an issue in “my” system as well, just handles it differently.

Maybe it’s what we want - everyone wanting to break in the newbie.

[gamerman01]

@MrRoboto Agreed - great post

[oysteilo]

I think maybe it is apropriate to do a recap of where we are right now. Are we proposing to start everyone at 1500 on jan 1 or are we using past history?

How are we handling play offs and different versions?

In the spread sheets i see unknown players with few games and fairly hig rankings. It is not really a concern, but maybe you should stay at 1500 rating until you have 3 games? Is that possible to include?

[gamerman01]

Right now we’re definitely on track to roll out 1/1
Everyone starts at 1500 for their first league game, so what you see is going back to 2020. We’re going to go back farther.

Continuing ->

[gamerman01]

In other words, we don’t start at 1500 each year.

Discussion has started about how to look at year by year, version by version like we’ve had the last 3-4 years. From what I’ve read, it’s already shaping up. We’ll have it well before 1/1

The unknown players (to YOU!, not me!) you’re seeing are probably inactives who played a few years ago. They are irrelevant for 2023 and 2024.

[gamerman01]

So results are being entered to get data in and see how things look. These are lifetime results, and we’re only back to 2020 so far.
The capabilities are there to determine who was best during 2024 and make playoff matchups, by version. We’ll have it before 12/31. Probably involves some combination of looking at lifelong history and current year results. It’ll be awesome, we’re only beginning to discuss this important topic though.

[gamerman01]

@oysteilo said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

In the spread sheets i see unknown players with few games and fairly hig rankings.

Gray bar means it’s been over a year since their last game result. (Another sweet feature from MrRoboto)

[MrRoboto]

@gamerman01 said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

It’s hard to get it right with a new player.

Dawg just defeated donutgold and with ELO, got a lot of points. No matter what donutgold goes on to do, Dawg has the points

Right now, games against complete newcomers might be over- or underrated.
These are just momentary snapshots though. Yes, dawg received a lot of points for winning against a player who was probably overrated at 1500. But it won’t take long before he is back to his old rating.

Same would happen if you lose against a 1500 newcomer, who is actually a top gamer in disguise. At that exact moment, you’ll unfairly lose too many points, but the system will bring you back to where you belong reasonably fast.

HOWEVER:
I realize this is an issue on some people’s mind. And there is a simple solution for that. As I said, we can always tweak the math to serve our needs. I just didn’t implement a failsafe against this, because personally I didn’t deem it necessary - but I might be wrong and gamerman has vastly more experience with this community and he seems to think this could be an issue.

I can easily tweak the formula so that games against newcomers give only 50% of the usual points. Or 30%. Or whatever.
What value do you think makes sense?
For how long should a newcomer have that “newcomer” status for opponents?

[gamerman01]

@MrRoboto said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

Right now, games against complete newcomers might be over- or underrated.
These are just momentary snapshots though. Yes, dawg received a lot of points for winning against a player who was probably overrated at 1500. But it won’t take long before he is back to his old rating.

Ah, right, very true for someone who keeps on playing

Same would happen if you lose against a 1500 newcomer, who is actually a top gamer in disguise. At that exact moment, you’ll unfairly lose too many points, but the system will bring you back to where you belong reasonably fast.

Yes, assuming I keep on playing

HOWEVER:
I realize this is an issue on some people’s mind. And there is a simple solution for that. As I said, we can always tweak the math to serve our needs. I just didn’t implement a failsafe against this, because personally I didn’t deem it necessary - but I might be wrong and gamerman has vastly more experience with this community and he seems to think this could be an issue.

It would be if someone is trying to maximize their points and looks for opponents with 0 to just a couple games done, but I’m not too worried about that.

The (somewhat minor) concern is more for entering playoffs. If 6 remains the minimum for qualifying (BM), then conceivably someone could inflate their score by playing several or all of their games against the unknowns (newcomers).

I can easily tweak the formula so that games against newcomers give only 50% of the usual points. Or 30%. Or whatever.
What value do you think makes sense?
For how long should a newcomer have that “newcomer” status for opponents?

Shoot… probably no adjustment after thinking a few seconds. Because none of us want to discourage someone getting going in the league. If they’re worth full credit as a win over a 1500, that’s OK because there actually is a little incentive to feast on their 1500. This factor of making it easier and not harder for a newcomer to get games overpowers the concerns above.

No change!

Thanks!

[MrRoboto]

And some clarification on the ranking itself.
Here is the current one for Balanced Mod:

You can see the legend on the right hand side. This should explain every colour, besides white.
White means a player is active but has not yet completed the necessary amount of games to qualify for the yearly playoffs.
Maybe I’ll add an explanation for white or just colour code it differently. It’s important to me that everyone should understand it without needing an explanation. So I might have to improve the UI here.

The rank in the very first column is relevant for the playoffs!

So if you check out the sheet you’ll see that Sovietishcat occupies the last (8th) spot, with @elche missing it at #9.
However, @Sovietishcat will drop out when some of the white lines above him complete 6 games this year, which seems very likely: @Pejon_88 , @GeneralDisarray , @Booper and @BombsAway all have 5 already (although they could also drop below Sovietishcat)

[MrRoboto]

@gamerman01 said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

If 6 remains the minimum for qualifying (BM), then conceivably someone could inflate their score by playing several or all of their games against the unknowns (newcomers).

True, but those players would also take a risk: After all, the newcomer could be a secret god in disguise and then they would lose a lot of points against a 1500.

It’s far from a sure way to game the system and I also doubt that we have players who choose their opponents this strategically to maximize their ranking

[gamerman01]

@MrRoboto Have been meaning to say something about the white, and I’ll go ahead and say it on the board -

I really prefer the colors on everyone who’s “active” so the tier for each is clear. The white is difficult to distinguish from the grey.

I know you’ll think of a different way to show a player hasn’t finished 6 yet. Ready, set, Go!

[farmboy]

@MrRoboto I’m not worried that it will fail to capture the exceptional case. Its just that I’d like the system to ensure that players (new or otherwise) make the playoffs in a given year based on their performance in that year with little influence from games played in prior years. Another example would be if players starting a year with a 1500 ELO, a 1800 ELO and a 2100 ELO all have the same record in that year, I expect we are often going to still see a difference in their ELO at the end even though the lower ranked players have closed some of the gap. With enough games, that difference should more or less disappear but I’m worried that it will be more than the 6 games needed for entry into the playoffs.

But again, happy to give it a try and see how it works. And I do really like this ELO for a bunch of other reasons that your work has illustrated.

[pacifiersboard]

@gamerman01 @MrRoboto

I don’t know the term in English but you can include “Zahlenformat (?) in die bedingte Formatierung” so that in cells (of the column with players’ names) that are colored white they also display something like “less than three games so far” behind the name