Some good advice here – I like the idea of Japan coming for Russian’s far eastern territories, and I agree that Leningrad is a ‘must have’ not a ‘nice to have’ for this strategy to go well for Germany.
I’m not sure I understand the part about waiting for J2 to declare war so that the US doesn’t reinforce Gibraltar – US Atlantic fleet at start of game is only one transport, one cruiser, one fighter, and one strat bomber – there’s no Allied carrier in the Atlantic, so the planes would have to land on Gibraltar itself. Britain doesn’t have enough ships to protect SZ 91 against both German subs and German planes, even if you add that one American cruiser. Italy should be able to take either Morocco or Gibraltar on I1, depending on situation, so German planes can land. So anything the Allies send to SZ 91 on turn 1 will die on G2, I think. If America wants to head over a turn early and get itself killed, great!
Finally, people are talking about saving the German BB, building German carriers, etc. – that really is not the intent of this opening; I’m not even trying to control the surface of the water; it’s undersea warfare and commerce raiding only. Obviously you can’t leave 8 subs sitting in SZ 109 with no escort; they’ll just get killed. And, yes, I agree with you that it’s not economical for Germany to try to maintain surface control of SZ 109 because Germany can’t afford to keep up with US/UK spending there. But if you are using subs and planes only, then you can kill anything the Allies put in the water while doing some convoy damage here and there. Maybe you have 3 subs in SZ 109, 1 sub in SZ 119 (Scotland), 1 sub in SZ 106 (Canada), could even send a sub or two south along the west coast of Africa; plenty of convoy zones there. They’re not all going to hit every turn, but it’s a way of reducing the UK economy to the point where it can’t compete with Italy. If the UK builds Atlantic destroyers, you sink the destroyers, convoy, bomb, and that uses up the entire UK budget. If the UK doesn’t build Atlantic destroyers, your subs are safe, you go a little heavier against Russia, maybe take Ukraine, and you don’t have to worry about Allied landings in Europe ever. True, you’re not taking any capitals, but you get the total Axis income up above 135 IPCs (60 Germany + 25 Italy + 45 Japan), you knock the total Allied income below 145 IPCs (70 USA + 30 USSR + 20 UK Europe + 10 China + 15 ANZAC), and at some point the fact that the Allies have to keep paying for transports to get their troops into combat but the Axis can just dump their troops right onto the front lines provides an advantage and the Axis can just slowly push forward and keep taking one territory at a time until they win, not by sacking a capital but just by taking and holding 90% of the mainland Eurasia/Africa landmass. If India falls, or China collapses, or Siberia goes for the Japanese, or Germany breaks into Stalingrad, that’s all you need to tip the world economy for the Axis. The Axis aren’t taking any capitals – but neither are the Allies.
Or, if the US charges hard into the Atlantic to rescue Britain, then Japan should be able to win in the Pacific.
And I’m no expert; I’m still new at this map, and maybe the strategy totally doesn’t work. I just wanted to make sure you guys see what I see before you decide. :-)