CSUB solution to the German Baltic Navy Problem; "the Un-Baltic"

I think you not check odds in Anglo-Egypt with no Libya bid.  If Germany have both Balkan and Ukraine S.S.R. Fighter, Germany win Anglo-Egypt with Tank 97%.  Germany lose 1 Fighter or more 70% of time in fight.  If Germany lose Ukraine S.S.R. Fighter to Russia move, Germany take Anglo-Egypt only 81% with 1 Tank.  Germany lose Fighter 77% of time and Germany lose Fighter and Bomber 40% of time.

Bid as Submarine in Sea Zone 8 not good change to Un-Baltic strategy.  Make cascade dice failure problem for Germany in Anglo-Egypt and lose aircraft that Germany need to make Sea Zone 7 threat strong.

You wont have the Balkan and Ukrainian Fighter on Germany 1.  You’ll have the Balkan one, but not the Ukrainian one.

Also, been thinking about it, and I’d rather have the fighter in Egypt than in SZ 15. Yes, the destroyer COULD kill the battleship and transport and even survive maybe and thus, kill Egypt, but those odds are really bad.  The odds that your armor are being driven by the boys sent to school with the football helmet (you know the ones that need to ride the short bus?) are incredibly higher than the destroyer winning in SZ 15 and thus, you’ll need the fighter for any hope of winning in Egypt.

With Sea Zone 14 Fleet to Sea Zone 13, no way to take Anglo-Egypt convincingly.  Even with 1 bid unit to Libya United Kingdom can retake Anglo-Egypt.

Bid unit as Submarine to Sea Zone 8 make Un-Baltic not ideal.  Paper is better as written then with Submarine bid.

Rule for strategy for all nation is check back door.  Un-Baltic with Submarine bid leave back door open to United Kingdom.

@F6FHellcat:

With Sea Zone 14 Fleet to Sea Zone 13, no way to take Anglo-Egypt convincingly.  Even with 1 bid unit to Libya United Kingdom can retake Anglo-Egypt.

Bid unit as Submarine to Sea Zone 8 make Un-Baltic not ideal.  Paper is better as written then with Submarine bid.

Rule for strategy for all nation is check back door.  Un-Baltic with Submarine bid leave back door open to United Kingdom.

not a problem.

Germany can take Egypt with 1 arm most times when hitting it with 2 inf, 2 arm.

Uk counterattack makes asia fall faster for Japan anyway.

japan will be in africa by J4 (5 max)

Germany will hit egypt G2 if needed.

UK/us wont dare touch Algeria due to inferior fleet/air assets. making baltic fleet either getting hit by UK air with potentially disastrous result for uk as consequence.

The big issue with this is the Russians.  It was mentioned in the paper but I think it requires a bit more detail to understand the real threat Russia can bring.

The first warning sign for Germany should be if Russia buys any arm on R1.  For example 3 inf, 3 arm (or 5/1/1) could provide a very aggressive R2.  You also could (and should) see UK coordination with Russia on UK 1, meaning the UK ftr to Cauc or Trj (dd to sz 14 to block amphib), or UK fleet stationed of Egy in Sz 34.  If Egy isn’t counquered on G1 (left open for UK) this is an absolute disaster for the Axis.

Naval wise UK will go with the Defensive Navy (or strike Sz 7) option(s), possibly AC+DD buy with US reinforcements.  On Russia 2 they will stack Ukr heavy.  I prefer the R1 Wrus attack only (but will work with Wrus + Ukr - only bring 2 arm to ukr).  Now Germany is confronted with a major issue - they cannot strike both the UK fleet and Russian stack in Ukr.  At this point the Allied fleet is irrelevant to Germany b/c the Russian army is a direct threat on Berlin/SE on R3.  The UK dd can block an amphib on Egy so that leaves 1 inf, 1 rt (plus possible planes) to push out the UK in the Egy otherwise UK can hit Balk and open up a Russian blitz option.  This also weakens the potential air assualt on the Atlantic fleet or Ukr by Germany.  The UK also can just hit Balk with air only - ftr + bom (bom should be moved to Cauc on UK 1), letting Russia still have an option to blitz with up to 7 arm, 2 ftrs, if Berlin is open.  SE can also be open for the UK if Egy is not reclaimed and if the Ger BB/trn take out the DD in Sz 14 the UK can potentially sink those with air pending the rest of UKs round 1 moves.

not sure i follow you, darth… germany is opening itself up to the russians by spending all its money on non-ship purchases and landing fighters closer to the west coast?  or are you referring to laying out $15 for the bomber?  Russia can certainly be an aggressive factor in any game and i guess they can “force” germany to take the opportunity to crush their entire army by using heavy german air support against ukraine instead of taking out the uk fleet… but i think that’s a pretty good choice for germany to be making.

Generally speaking, particularly if you don’t take out ukraine, I think germany is very well equipped in terms of manpower to face the russian front in this scenario.

My concern is the assumption that the aggressive German naval moves somehow put the Allies in a bunch of no-win situations.  It is certainly a viable strat but I think a good Russian player will stack Ukr with 15+ inf (give or take losses on R1), 2 rt, 7 arm, aa on R2 and have 4 more inf in Wrus and 4 inf in Cauc (from R2 purchase).

Now Germany has 2 arm tied up in WE (can’t reach Ukr), so they have something like 9-11 inf, 1 rt, 7 arm (2 were bought) in range.  That requires Germany to bring in all 6 ftrs and 2 boms just to take.  They’ll end up clearing with about 3-5 units which are easily countered by Russia (if Ger sacked air to take with arm) and Germany is left with no offensive units and a short stack of inf.  The point is UK’s first turn isn’t altered that much.  They can even bait the German attack in Sz 8 saving the Russian stack for sure or UK does a more traditional naval buy (AC+trn) and swoops into WE once Ger sacks its airforce on Russia.  And this again can leave the UK with the canal open.  1 inf, 1 rt vs. 2 inf is a pretty even battle there assuming Ger planes are tied up in the Atlantic or Ukr.  And with the Canal open, UK can counter Ukr if Ger wins.

@eumaies:

not sure i follow you, darth… germany is opening itself up to the russians by spending all its money on non-ship purchases and landing fighters closer to the west coast?

I think Germany always has to be concerned with this.  By going light in Egy and sending the trn/BB west you also lose the ability to help deter a Russian move to Ukr with 2 extra inf via trn and a BB shot, which would normally be available on G2 if you killed the UK dd on G1.

I actually like the Unbaltic or a Channel dash if your intention is to leave WE empty and move everything East to put max pressure on Russia by either stacking Kar or Ukr heavy.  It takes away the threat to London, but to me that is an empty threat, so I tend to ignore that part of it and go straight for Russia.  This works particularly well if Russia goes Wrus + Ukr and gets hit hard with the dice.

2 arm tied up in WE

if you kill Uk navy in sz2 there are no reason 2 arm should be in Wester europe thought.

Ok, I get your basic principle, but I’m not sure the numbers add up that way.

the two tanks in western are less available, but no tank or artillery was taken from southern europe, so that’s one in its favor.

Other than that, german needs to be equally cagey here but i think they’re ok.  If they take karelia with just norwegian troops, and russia musters the exact army you describe (all hit ukraine for maximum defense), germany ought to have anticipated this danger, left one guy in ukraine, and so have remaining and in range of ukraine:

13 infantry, 2 artillery, 6 tanks, 6 fighters, 2 bombers, plus any tanks they built on turn 1 (this is an important aspect players often ignore when they build all infantry armies, the importance of viable threats).  So assume 2 (or 3) tanks added to that to make it 8 tanks.

this has an overwhelming chance of victory, with a likelihood of clearing with most of the air force intact and 6-7 tanks alive (according to frood, and that’s without any unnecessary loss of airpower – which is always an option if you want to double down).  You’ve also captured an aa gun.  Russia can retake, but with appropriate difficulty.

(Since the german is basically changing direction, the battleship and transport carrying an extra infantry, western europe tank, and bombard ability can also join in, making this a much bigger rout with 9 or 10 surviving german ground forces, a force that may not be worth attack-able for the russian)

So i agree in this example UK wasn’t forced to make a really hard choice, but russia i think was.  Anytime germany can have a decisive battle reducing russia to (ultimately) just the few units they build new each turn I think it’s a good situation for the axis. Germany has the greater budget, and japan can have a bigger impact by rushing in even with limited numbers of troops supported by air, since russia has less flexibility to counter.  Russia is the power that the allies can least afford to have hanging by a thread, IMO.

Anyway, all of this is to say I think russia can pretty much always force a big fight if they want to, and this strat doesn’t leave germany particularly weak since it doesn’t divert much cash.

@eumaies:

Other than that, german needs to be equally cagey here but i think they’re ok.  If they take karelia with just norwegian troops, and russia musters the exact army you describe (all hit ukraine for maximum defense), germany ought to have anticipated this danger, left one guy in ukraine, and so have remaining and in range of ukraine:

Very key phrase here.  As long as they do then you’re right they are fine and Russia won’t make the move to Ukr on R2.  But too often I’ve seen players over defend WE early, ie 3-4 inf, 2 arm or something similar.  And this can be costly against a well positioned and aggressive Russia.

yeah i agree.  i suppose players can be tempted to leave a stack infantry in ukraine thinking “infantry defend well, so why not use them” but german infantry in this case are too precious and the russian attacking stack too overwhelming.

I think it’s pretty standard operating procedure on the german russian front, though, to just leave 1 guy in any square which you’re not defending in force (unless a big battle has already been fought and you’re trying to bleed the other player dry with too many targets).

I’ve tried this twice.  I like it for germany.  The fleet in the atlantic provides UK a tough decision to make.

I’ve only played with no bidding though.

I buy 2 tanks, and 10 infantry (i think).  All land units anyways.

2 fighters and the bomber take care of the UK Battleship in the MED.  I’ve considered sending an addtional fighter to seal the deal but each time I’ve destroyed the battleship in one round and only lost a fighter.  The german battleship and transport go take care of the destroyer and land an addtional tank and infantry to take care of Egypt.  I’ve considered sending an additonal fighter to ensure this fight as well.

I usually take Kariliea and deadzone the rest to tempt the russians to extend to far.

The fleet consolidates off the coast of W Europe.  And 3 or 4 fighters plus the bomber are sitting in W Europe ready to punish the british if they try and attack the fleet.

Seems solid so far and if I had any bid units would only make the whole thing easier.

Africa is ripe for the taking and the UK and US has to deal with the fleet to start moving any units into action.

Japan concentrates on opening up a russian front and I almost always kill the American fleet at Hawaii.

::edit::

Oh yeah, first post.  Hello all!

Howdy.

Just read this thread; thought I’d post a couple notes.

From Jen: England can chose to retreat before your submarines can chose to submerge thus pulling out of the danger zone of SZ 7.

Nope.  In a Caspian Sub paper you must assume Caspian Sub rules which clearly state the decision to submerge comes before the decision to retreat.  I believe that is also the rule for standard TripA, though it has been a long time since I checked.

The best tactic so far has been to hit it with 2 fighters, bomber, battleship for one round and retreat.

That is a very problematic response.  How often do you lose the btl?  Against 3 subs you lose the btl at least 26% of the time.  That is a classic CDFR setup to try and eliminate a capital ship on the cheap.

I agree with a couple of points from Darth M about the resulting weakness on the Russian front being a potential problem, but of course that is the trade off of every German anti-KGF opening  :-D  How much can you afford to slow down the US/UK vs USSR or vice versa?

I’m not quite sure what to do G2 with this open.

Invariably, the UK builds the carrier and the US sinks one sub and lands a fighter on the carrier, then invades Algeria with the DD and 2 trannies.

Assuming USSR takes Karelia and Ukr R2, what’s the best German move then?

I try this in game.  1 Infantry bid to Ukraine S.S.R., 1 Infantry to Libya.  I lose 2 Fighter, 1 Bomber in Ukraine S.S.R. on Russia 1 and in Anglo-Egypt on Germany 1.  United Kingdom build Battleship out of range of Western Europe Fighters in Sea Zone 2 and bring Transport from Sea Zone 1 with Russia Submarine.  Odds bad to attack United Kingdom navy on Germany 2 so I not attack.

Sent Sea Zone 7 fleet to Brazil with 2 Infantry instead.  Sea Zone 13 fleet to Anglo-Egypt to re-take.  United States destroy Sea Zone 18 fleet but take many losses on United States 2.  Germany collect 48 IPC on Germany 3.  United Kingdom have Norway.  United States have Algeria.  Russia have to easy time Russia 1, 2, 3.  Russia now have enough forces to hold out long time against Japan and Germany.  To long with dice I have this game and United Kingdom 3 battleship fleet.

Anglo-Egypt and safe sea zone building by Allies on United Kingdom 1 and United States 1 is problems with Un-Baltic strategy.

It’s a good strategy.  The main benefit is it prevents the Allies from landing Algeria on Turn 1-2.  Another thing to like about it is you’re credibly harassing the Allies without losing any IPCs on naval units.

I’d probably attack the fleet with the RAF and probably also with the BS and trannies (which I’ll retreat to 8).  If Germany submerges, I take a shot with the American bomber.  So odds are there’s only 1-3 subs left over to go to the Med.  Meanwhile the combined fleet is in 8 (UK buys an AC and a fighter), and I put my Russian sub in 12.

At that point, if Germany moves to the Med I can go to Norway with the combined fleet, while the United States builds up air power to knock out the Med fleet.  If the Med fleet moves to Egypt or the Black sea I can land Algeria, which signals the beginning of the end for the Med fleet unless Germany invests in an AC.

Possibly the better move for Germany if 2-3 subs survive in SZ7 is to attack the combined fleet in sz 8 with 5 figs, 2 bombs, and 2-3 subs.  However, this is a good battle for the Allies unless Germany has 3 subs.  Nonetheless if Germany has 2 subs it might still be Germany’s best option to attack and hope for good dice.

I think this opening has enormous chances of success against non-experts.  Against experts I’d prefer to go to Egypt strong and get 5 infantry instead of a bomber.