CSUB solution to the German Baltic Navy Problem; "the Un-Baltic"

[eumaies]

the posted strat is i think a very good one.  the only down side for germany is the small opportunity cost of the sub not partaking in gibralter or similar, and thus the risk of 1 german fighter loss (+ need to use fighters in gibralter fight, but that’s typical in any case).  You also lose the opportunity to ship ground forces to karelia, if that’s your plan one approach.

In general, while this is a strategy i’d like against a very skilled opponent (for reasons argued in the article), the reasonable odds that the uk just hits the boats with planes and still manages to win makes it not my ideal strategy for most games.  That is, if I’m going for the atlantic contest I do tend tend to invest in a little extra hardware.

I don’t play with bids and the bid is very helpful to this strategy, since you risk very little by not pitching in in egypt and thus can contest atlantic without needing to have a strong chance of winning.  Without bids, when I contest atlantic, it has to to be more cautious for germany becuase that’s central to the game.

Anyway, if going for a KGF type game, I would probably have the uk attack, and build the carrier (assume the batleship survives the battle).  US air power can then hit sz 8 and hurt the subs and land both their plane and bomber successfully.  Retreating before submersion is another good option pointed out by Jen.  Alternatey since I usually do KJF I would probably ignore the fleet and take the chance to fly fighters and bomber towards asia, putting aside dealing with germany until later.

amending it to have a sub in sz8 i think defeats the point – then the uk can attack the sz7 fleet with impunity (per typical sitting in baltic except the subs survive in a better spot) and the us air power can hit the remaining subs in sz 7 and the sub in sz8 with air power, at no risk.

[Jennifer]

The loss of yet another fighter is a concern, but I think Germany can afford it.

BTW, assuming no bid for Germany, Here’s my thoughts on it:

1)  2 infantry, artillery, armor, fighter, bomber to Egypt
2)  Battleship, transport to SZ 15
3)  4 Fighters to SZ 13 (should be every last plane that is NOT going to Egypt you have left)
4)  Possibly take Karelia and Liberate Ukraine (you;ll have to make that choice when you see the board.)

NCM:

Couple infantry from Norway to W. Europe
Pull all the tanks and guys you can East ward
Land the fighters in France (4 or 5 Infantry, 3 fighters, AA Gun should be enough to discourage an attack)
Fleet from SZ 5 to SZ 7
Submarine never left SZ 8, keep it there!

Build: IMHO, 5 Infantry, 2 Armor, Bomber in Germany.  (Gives you 4 Fighters, 2 Bombers to attack SZ 7, 3 Fighters, 2 Bombers, 2 Submarines, Destroyer to attack SZ 8.)

I am assuming you lose the fighter in Ukraine to Russia 1 and a Fighter to the Battleship in SZ 13. (67% chance he’ll hit one.)

[murraymoto]

the whole idea is progress in that at least it gives another look for the German navy.

Often I think a number of players with UK are in the mode of attack attack attack or prep the convoy route.  You throw a bunch of German warships out into the Atlantic on Rd1 and some of those UK players are gonna double-take.  No carrier, no destroyer, what’s going on, and they built a plane–hahaha, they are so dead, and then they don’t adjust.

Really I think there’s a lot of thought put into this plan and many players on the UK side are not going to take a good look at it until they have it go sidewise on them a time or two.  --They will not change their plans or way over-react, and yeah, either is probably fine with Germany.  They have opportunity to get some mileage out of the Baltic Fleet.

[Nix]

tbh thought this is a better move combined with a sub bid in sz8 abd killing the sz 2 navy.

[Croggyl]

@Cmdr:

1)  2 infantry, artillery, armor, fighter, bomber to Egypt

Why not attack Egypt without the fighter and add it to the SZ 15 attack? You should win Egypt with artillery and tank left in both cases, and the SZ battle seems much safer now…

[Funcioneta]

@Nix:

tbh thought this is a better move combined with a sub bid in sz8 abd killing the sz 2 navy.

Ugh… that hurts …

[F6FHellcat]

If bid is Germany Submarine in Sea Zone 8, Anglo-Egypt battle lose.  United Kingdom gain advantage in Mediterranean that reverse Germany gain in Atlantic.  Germany then have 3 fleet to face:  United Kingdom Atlantic, United States Atlantic, United Kingdom Mediterranean.

Bid better to Libya to make sure of Anglo-Egypt for this move.

[Nix]

@F6FHellcat:

If bid is Germany Submarine in Sea Zone 8, Anglo-Egypt battle lose.  United Kingdom gain advantage in Mediterranean that reverse Germany gain in Atlantic.  Germany then have 3 fleet to face:  United Kingdom Atlantic, United States Atlantic, United Kingdom Mediterranean.

Bid better to Libya to make sure of Anglo-Egypt for this move.

Germany only needs to kill Egypt, and take it with 1 unit to prevent uk escape to miditeranian.

Japan will take Africa from round 4 anyway.

And UK will be sitting still on their island building expensive capital ships because they don´t dare move against the luftwaffe…

And a attack on Baltic navy can go well or horriably wrong for uk, so the German possition is a strong one with such an act.

[F6FHellcat]

I think you not check odds in Anglo-Egypt with no Libya bid.  If Germany have both Balkan and Ukraine S.S.R. Fighter, Germany win Anglo-Egypt with Tank 97%.  Germany lose 1 Fighter or more 70% of time in fight.  If Germany lose Ukraine S.S.R. Fighter to Russia move, Germany take Anglo-Egypt only 81% with 1 Tank.  Germany lose Fighter 77% of time and Germany lose Fighter and Bomber 40% of time.

Bid as Submarine in Sea Zone 8 not good change to Un-Baltic strategy.  Make cascade dice failure problem for Germany in Anglo-Egypt and lose aircraft that Germany need to make Sea Zone 7 threat strong.

[Jennifer]

You wont have the Balkan and Ukrainian Fighter on Germany 1.  You’ll have the Balkan one, but not the Ukrainian one.

Also, been thinking about it, and I’d rather have the fighter in Egypt than in SZ 15. Yes, the destroyer COULD kill the battleship and transport and even survive maybe and thus, kill Egypt, but those odds are really bad.  The odds that your armor are being driven by the boys sent to school with the football helmet (you know the ones that need to ride the short bus?) are incredibly higher than the destroyer winning in SZ 15 and thus, you’ll need the fighter for any hope of winning in Egypt.

[daggaz]

yeah send the fighter as well to egypt.  You have more than enough firepower to take the gilbratar bb (its almost ímpossible to lose this fight, and incredibly bad odds you lose your bb), but you really need to take out the english in africa and do it convincingly, so that any attempt to retake egypt will be very costly and will completely drain english forces on the japanese front.  Ive had egypt go poorly enough times now to know better.

Interesting idea on the sub in sz 8, jen.  Will have to look at my board some tomorrow, but I will say that I usually hope for a US invasion of algeria turn 1, especially with all my air sitting in strike range (this alone is usually enough deterent that US waits another round for more protection).  I will gladly lose a fighter in order to sink some of the US navy, especially those early trannies and a tasty destroyer.  Just delays them all that much longer, its a cost germany can afford, even if it means not using air to retake russian landgrabs on G2.

As for the bid… hmm we never get to play with more than 7 as getting an extra boat can really change the game…  it might actually be worth it to weaken egypt attack if you can honestly sink all the UK navy on G1.  With two trannies surviving and ready for the med, africa should be retakable even if you lose egypt…  especially since germany could afford the units now that its going to be a few turns before the english even think of hitting norway. Hmm…  Oh well, not like I will ever get to play with an axis bid-boat anyhow. =P

[F6FHellcat]

With Sea Zone 14 Fleet to Sea Zone 13, no way to take Anglo-Egypt convincingly.  Even with 1 bid unit to Libya United Kingdom can retake Anglo-Egypt.

Bid unit as Submarine to Sea Zone 8 make Un-Baltic not ideal.  Paper is better as written then with Submarine bid.

Rule for strategy for all nation is check back door.  Un-Baltic with Submarine bid leave back door open to United Kingdom.

[Nix]

@F6FHellcat:

With Sea Zone 14 Fleet to Sea Zone 13, no way to take Anglo-Egypt convincingly.  Even with 1 bid unit to Libya United Kingdom can retake Anglo-Egypt.

Bid unit as Submarine to Sea Zone 8 make Un-Baltic not ideal.  Paper is better as written then with Submarine bid.

Rule for strategy for all nation is check back door.  Un-Baltic with Submarine bid leave back door open to United Kingdom.

not a problem.

Germany can take Egypt with 1 arm most times when hitting it with 2 inf, 2 arm.

Uk counterattack makes asia fall faster for Japan anyway.

japan will be in africa by J4 (5 max)

Germany will hit egypt G2 if needed.

UK/us wont dare touch Algeria due to inferior fleet/air assets. making baltic fleet either getting hit by UK air with potentially disastrous result for uk as consequence.

[DarthMaximus]

The big issue with this is the Russians.  It was mentioned in the paper but I think it requires a bit more detail to understand the real threat Russia can bring.

The first warning sign for Germany should be if Russia buys any arm on R1.  For example 3 inf, 3 arm (or 5/1/1) could provide a very aggressive R2.  You also could (and should) see UK coordination with Russia on UK 1, meaning the UK ftr to Cauc or Trj (dd to sz 14 to block amphib), or UK fleet stationed of Egy in Sz 34.  If Egy isn’t counquered on G1 (left open for UK) this is an absolute disaster for the Axis.

Naval wise UK will go with the Defensive Navy (or strike Sz 7) option(s), possibly AC+DD buy with US reinforcements.  On Russia 2 they will stack Ukr heavy.  I prefer the R1 Wrus attack only (but will work with Wrus + Ukr - only bring 2 arm to ukr).  Now Germany is confronted with a major issue - they cannot strike both the UK fleet and Russian stack in Ukr.  At this point the Allied fleet is irrelevant to Germany b/c the Russian army is a direct threat on Berlin/SE on R3.  The UK dd can block an amphib on Egy so that leaves 1 inf, 1 rt (plus possible planes) to push out the UK in the Egy otherwise UK can hit Balk and open up a Russian blitz option.  This also weakens the potential air assualt on the Atlantic fleet or Ukr by Germany.  The UK also can just hit Balk with air only - ftr + bom (bom should be moved to Cauc on UK 1), letting Russia still have an option to blitz with up to 7 arm, 2 ftrs, if Berlin is open.  SE can also be open for the UK if Egy is not reclaimed and if the Ger BB/trn take out the DD in Sz 14 the UK can potentially sink those with air pending the rest of UKs round 1 moves.

[eumaies]

not sure i follow you, darth… germany is opening itself up to the russians by spending all its money on non-ship purchases and landing fighters closer to the west coast?  or are you referring to laying out $15 for the bomber?  Russia can certainly be an aggressive factor in any game and i guess they can “force” germany to take the opportunity to crush their entire army by using heavy german air support against ukraine instead of taking out the uk fleet… but i think that’s a pretty good choice for germany to be making.

Generally speaking, particularly if you don’t take out ukraine, I think germany is very well equipped in terms of manpower to face the russian front in this scenario.

[DarthMaximus]

My concern is the assumption that the aggressive German naval moves somehow put the Allies in a bunch of no-win situations.  It is certainly a viable strat but I think a good Russian player will stack Ukr with 15+ inf (give or take losses on R1), 2 rt, 7 arm, aa on R2 and have 4 more inf in Wrus and 4 inf in Cauc (from R2 purchase).

Now Germany has 2 arm tied up in WE (can’t reach Ukr), so they have something like 9-11 inf, 1 rt, 7 arm (2 were bought) in range.  That requires Germany to bring in all 6 ftrs and 2 boms just to take.  They’ll end up clearing with about 3-5 units which are easily countered by Russia (if Ger sacked air to take with arm) and Germany is left with no offensive units and a short stack of inf.  The point is UK’s first turn isn’t altered that much.  They can even bait the German attack in Sz 8 saving the Russian stack for sure or UK does a more traditional naval buy (AC+trn) and swoops into WE once Ger sacks its airforce on Russia.  And this again can leave the UK with the canal open.  1 inf, 1 rt vs. 2 inf is a pretty even battle there assuming Ger planes are tied up in the Atlantic or Ukr.  And with the Canal open, UK can counter Ukr if Ger wins.

@eumaies:

not sure i follow you, darth… germany is opening itself up to the russians by spending all its money on non-ship purchases and landing fighters closer to the west coast?

I think Germany always has to be concerned with this.  By going light in Egy and sending the trn/BB west you also lose the ability to help deter a Russian move to Ukr with 2 extra inf via trn and a BB shot, which would normally be available on G2 if you killed the UK dd on G1.

I actually like the Unbaltic or a Channel dash if your intention is to leave WE empty and move everything East to put max pressure on Russia by either stacking Kar or Ukr heavy.  It takes away the threat to London, but to me that is an empty threat, so I tend to ignore that part of it and go straight for Russia.  This works particularly well if Russia goes Wrus + Ukr and gets hit hard with the dice.

[Nix]

2 arm tied up in WE

if you kill Uk navy in sz2 there are no reason 2 arm should be in Wester europe thought.

[eumaies]

Ok, I get your basic principle, but I’m not sure the numbers add up that way.

the two tanks in western are less available, but no tank or artillery was taken from southern europe, so that’s one in its favor.

Other than that, german needs to be equally cagey here but i think they’re ok.  If they take karelia with just norwegian troops, and russia musters the exact army you describe (all hit ukraine for maximum defense), germany ought to have anticipated this danger, left one guy in ukraine, and so have remaining and in range of ukraine:

13 infantry, 2 artillery, 6 tanks, 6 fighters, 2 bombers, plus any tanks they built on turn 1 (this is an important aspect players often ignore when they build all infantry armies, the importance of viable threats).  So assume 2 (or 3) tanks added to that to make it 8 tanks.

this has an overwhelming chance of victory, with a likelihood of clearing with most of the air force intact and 6-7 tanks alive (according to frood, and that’s without any unnecessary loss of airpower – which is always an option if you want to double down).  You’ve also captured an aa gun.  Russia can retake, but with appropriate difficulty.

(Since the german is basically changing direction, the battleship and transport carrying an extra infantry, western europe tank, and bombard ability can also join in, making this a much bigger rout with 9 or 10 surviving german ground forces, a force that may not be worth attack-able for the russian)

So i agree in this example UK wasn’t forced to make a really hard choice, but russia i think was.  Anytime germany can have a decisive battle reducing russia to (ultimately) just the few units they build new each turn I think it’s a good situation for the axis. Germany has the greater budget, and japan can have a bigger impact by rushing in even with limited numbers of troops supported by air, since russia has less flexibility to counter.  Russia is the power that the allies can least afford to have hanging by a thread, IMO.

Anyway, all of this is to say I think russia can pretty much always force a big fight if they want to, and this strat doesn’t leave germany particularly weak since it doesn’t divert much cash.

[DarthMaximus]

@eumaies:

Other than that, german needs to be equally cagey here but i think they’re ok.  If they take karelia with just norwegian troops, and russia musters the exact army you describe (all hit ukraine for maximum defense), germany ought to have anticipated this danger, left one guy in ukraine, and so have remaining and in range of ukraine:

Very key phrase here.  As long as they do then you’re right they are fine and Russia won’t make the move to Ukr on R2.  But too often I’ve seen players over defend WE early, ie 3-4 inf, 2 arm or something similar.  And this can be costly against a well positioned and aggressive Russia.

[eumaies]

yeah i agree.  i suppose players can be tempted to leave a stack infantry in ukraine thinking “infantry defend well, so why not use them” but german infantry in this case are too precious and the russian attacking stack too overwhelming.

I think it’s pretty standard operating procedure on the german russian front, though, to just leave 1 guy in any square which you’re not defending in force (unless a big battle has already been fought and you’re trying to bleed the other player dry with too many targets).