Russia needs every piece, and the other allies need all those factory nodes. There may be some more breathing room with a bid placed in favor of Russia, but plans that vary from the extremely vanilla (stack moscow) seem like temptations…and nothing more.
The game is still dynamic and changing because player perception about what is optimal still has some room to move. I contend that having a vast experience and playbook is key so that you don’t go into the game with a rigid strategy that is easy to sniff out. A year or two ago leaving UK with a fleet was taboo but other players have left me with a fleet on turn 1 and then dealt with the rest later.
All why I like weddingsinger’s plan of a Play Option Sea Lion–you only commit to sea lion once you see what UK buys turn 1. Placing or leaving the necessary units West does cost a turn (or turn and a half) of russian advance if you decline the Sea Lion, but its much harder to discern what the German player is trying to do than if he buys CV or TT on turn 1 or steps out into SZ 112. Even the best UK players are tempted to spend money away from the Home Islands starting turn 1–the crazy part is that Germany can conquer UK in the later game if its poorly and inconsitently garrisoned, and especially if all the fighters left/tarantod/died.
Sea Lion is still a poor move–even when this gambit worked and I took UK with a fair number of units left, it doesn’t give you that much money, you need to add men and planes to defend it, it doesnt count towards 1 of Mark Movel’s VCs, and America knows what it has to do.
Thats also why 2 SB is the ultimate Germany buy–it doesn’t telegraph a specific strategy, not even dark skies, but 4 SB can be used to accomplish any germany objective and you can decide on G3 what the actual plan is.