In reference to https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/post/1724617
I have a couple gems in current games:
@Stucifer said in L24 OOB Stucifer (X) v Booper (L+48):
J1 attack on Yunnan stack
Battle in Yunnan
Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
Chinese defend with 5 infantry; Russians defend with 3 fighters
Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/8 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Chinese roll dice for 3 fighters and 5 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 7/8 hits, 3.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Japanese, 3 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 artillery owned by the Japanese and 1 bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Yunnan
1 bomber owned by the Japanese retreated
Chinese win with 3 fighters and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -46
Also this one. The BB was damaged which is why I pursued until the end.
10,000 simulations: 99.39% Chance of Victory, 0.26% Draw, 0.35% Loss
@Stucifer said in L24 PtV Stucifer (X+10) vs Adam514 (L):
Battle in 107 Sea Zone
Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers
British defend with 1 battleship
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 battleship in 107 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in 107 Sea Zone
British win with 1 battleship remaining. Battle score for attacker is -30
Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers
–
Nerded out on the stats for the Yunnan battle.
Chance to get 4 hits on 5 infantry (4.11%) x Chance to get 3 of 3 on the fighters (29.63%)
1.22%
-and-
Chance to get 5 hits on 5 infantry (0.411%) x Chance to get 2 of 3 on the fighters (44.44%)
0.18%
So a ~1.4% chance to get 7 hits, which is actually higher than I expected
Chance to whiff completely with my units:
(2 Infantry @1: 69.44%) x (Inf + Art @2: 44.44%) x (Fighter @3: 50%) x (Tac + 2 Bombers @4: 3.7%)
0.57%
Total chance for this outcome: ~0.008%