Gentlemen.
On February 20th I was at a game of Global war 1936. This is the third day long session we’ve spent trying to finish the same game. It was a 16 hour day lol; and the game still isn’t done….
Anyways;
There was a HUGE debate, over a simple statistical question, (That occurred TWICE in the game) that lead to a number of nasty comments -
#1. that my mind is too stupid to comprehend basic statistics, and
#2. that because I mentioned I attended church on occasion, sometime 5+ years ago, that I must not understand ‘science’ because I’m religious.
Please appreciate we were about 15 hours deep the 2nd time it happened :)
Humorous elements aside lol… I want to post the question to the community of what happened so here goes.
THE NOTES:
- This occurred on two occassions
- The game is played with D12’s
- Britain attacks a German position with 3 infantry 1 artillery 1 marine or other unit…
- Infantry attack at 2 on a D12
- Artillery attack at 3 on a D12
- The Artillery is designated to support the marine/other unit.
THE EVENT
Britain rolls it’s attack and makes an error, instead of rolling 3@2 and 1@3 separately, Britain has accidently rolled all four dice together.
The Result of Britain’s roll is as follows: 8,9,6,3
BOTH parties agree a full reroll is not required,
BOTH parties agree that a simple statistical roll can determine whether or not the “3 result” would associate with the artillery and be a HIT, or associate with an infantry piece and be a MISS.
THE DISPUTE
My Interpretation:
Roll a D12. on a 1,2 or 3, the artillery would be considered a hit; and the odds IMO are exactly the same as just rerolling the artillery attack. The chance being 1 in 4.
I envisioned this as reaching in to a bag and removing a random die. You would have a 1/4 chance of pulling the “3” result.
My Opponents interpretation
Please bare in mind that I do NOT understand my opponents position; so it’s hard to do it justice. (perhaps someone can elaborate?)
But in plain words it was his interpretation that on the reroll dice, that any roll from 4-12 would be a hit, a 3/4 chance.
I believe this came from his inverse look at the question, that because there were so many infantry, its a fact they will get 2 misses+; and therefore its more likely that an infantry will get the undesirable dice; and that somehow from that look at the question - it is more likely the artillery would get the “3” result dice.
My opponent rolled a 12, and demanded that the hit stand despite my expressed intent that only a 1,2 or 3, should be a hit.
MEDIATITION
To move the game forward I begrudgingly let the hit stand on both occasions this occurred. My opponent also apologized profusely for his over the top commentary. An Apology I accept.
FINAL COMMENT
We probably spent upwards of 40 minutes to an hour disputing this stupid and mostly irrelevant debate; I said I would post this question on the community boards for comment, and my opponent insisted that he has a degree in statistics, and that unless a PROFESSOR told him he was drunk, that he didn’t care what anyone else had to say.
So before I pursue a professor’s comment, I’m opening this up to the community for review. -in the event my interpretation is somehow wrong!?
Please let me know what you guys think!
