Merry Jewmas!
China and North Korea vs. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan
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Alright this has gone off topic.
Point is if China decides to make a play at Taiwan, unlikely that anyone could stop them, but they would suffer heavy casualties shortly after taking the Island. The Western allies surge their Navy/Air Forces to the Western Pacific - 6+ American Aircraft Carrier groups, 1-2 European Aircraft Carrier groups, dozens of Submarines and landing craft. That’s over 500 advanced carrier based aircraft alone. Not to mention air based in Okinawa and the Philippines. There is no way China will maintain local sea superiority and Taiwan can be retaken.
If this situation were to occur, China would be embargoed and the world economy would suffer. Other countries around the world would take up the slack, more than happy to produce cheap goods for western investment- Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, India, etc. This is a no-win for China.
North Korea is another story- if they made a play for the South at the same time (presumably the world would be distracted by China), there are three scenarios I can see:
1. China aides them. Unlikely, but would be extremely difficult to prevent a complete overrun of the South. Do South Korea/US have enough bullets? It could also depend on whether South Korea/Japan/US could get air superiority. China has gotten better fighters recently, some of which technically can go toe-to-toe with our modern fighters. Can South Korea/Japan/US win in the air while outnumbered?
2. China doesn’t aide them. North Korea runs out of supplies in a month and South Korea/Japan/US push back to the original line and another ceasefire results. Status quo here.
3. China doesn’t aide them. South Korea/Japan/US decide to push all the way to China to unite Korea and remove the dictatorship in the north. Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons in a desperate attempt to win and thousands of South Koreans/Japanese/Americans die depending on his target. The US retaliate and North Korea is a nuclear wasteland.Anyway, its how I see it.
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My post is back on topic.
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What constitutes “Winning?”
I see an armistice after a million or so deaths.
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What constitutes “Winning?”
I see an armistice after a million or so deaths.
Winning is a relative term. Rarely are there winners in war.
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N.O.T.A
None of the above will happening, Dogs who bark don´t bite!
And, IF N.-Korea drops the bomb ,then a retaliation like dropping the Bomb back from the U.S. side doesn´t make any sense at all.
S.-Korea is allied with the U.S. ,IF the U.S. retaliate with a Nuclear strike then S.Korea will get a big load of that and China and all near other Neighbors will be then not so amused about it.
Next Step is , The U.S. is kicked out of the Nato because such backstabbing move will not be tolerated.So Kim yong will show off?? Let Him.
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@aequitas:
N.O.T.A
None of the above will happening, Dogs who bark don´t bite!
And, IF N.-Korea drops the bomb ,then a retaliation like dropping the Bomb back from the U.S. side doesn´t make any sense at all.
S.-Korea is allied with the U.S. ,IF the U.S. retaliate with a Nuclear strike then S.Korea will get a big load of that and China and all near other Neighbors will be then not so amused about it.
Next Step is , The U.S. is kicked out of the Nato because such backstabbing move will not be tolerated.So Kim yong will show off?? Let Him.
So if North Korea uses a nuke on, say, Seoul/Busan, or Tokyo… No retaliation even conventionally? That’s just giving them a free pass.
No, I don’t think the US would drop dozens of nukes, but a conventional bombing in North Korea may be in order- or even a small nuke in a low population area- that would not have much impact on South Korea or China radiologically, just psychologically.
South Korea may be begging us to take out the rest of North Korea’s nukes. Not sure China would back North Korea if they used a nuke on Tokyo or Seoul/Busan.
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No.
I`m saying that N.-Korea is only threatening and tries to provoke so who ever shoots first gets the blame.
Un knows that if He is starting first no one got his back, If he get´s someone to take the first shot on Him, then He is coming in BIG with China and whoever wants to see the U.S. goes down.It´s like the extended version of the IRON CURTAIN…or IRON CURTAIN 2.1
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Oh ok, yeah I don’t think anyone wants to fire nukes (or be the aggressor in a conventional war) in the Korea’s or Taiwan. However, it seems that North Korea is a bit of a loose cannon, who knows what they will do.
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@Imperious:
This would likely happen. BUT what if Russia joins China and N. Korea?
Russia does not do that anymore. They only support UN with block votes with middle east nations that have warm water ports. They block our votes and remain silent on human rights issues, so those regimes can stay alive. They won’t “join” China in anything because that will trigger a world war. All they care about is their own interests, not helping China. If anything they would be on the UN’s side IMO.
It’s entirely possible that China will make a play for Taiwan and in this time N Korea might invade the south, but to link them as allies in a common front won’t happen. China wants to ship her goods and look presidential. Korea is a rogue nation and already isolated. China wants no part of that.
So what will likely happen is N Korea invades south, China does nothing with Taiwan. Result is Korea gets overthrown and defeated once their crappy army gets thrown back and logistical lines get cut.
http://www.foxnews.mobi/quickPage.html?page=38321&content=88968363
Well….
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There’s a difference in playing ‘chicken’ and saber rattling than actually joining a war.
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WE would win a war in Asia between Asians. They would die. We would live.
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We will not send in our Guys into a conflict, wich asian guys better solve them selfs…
…ah what was his name again?!?.. 8-)
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