No N.O: Why not take Caucasus on G2?

[Bronstein]

This is how I did it:

G1:
Build:
1 carrier, 1 bomber, 1 tank

combat moves:
2 tanks, 3 inf, 2 art from Bul/Rom to Ukraine
4 tanks, 2 inf, 1 art from Czech + Poland to East Poland
3 inf, 1 art, 2 fighter from Berlin via transport + Poland to Baltic states
1 fighter, 1 sub from NW Europe to SZ 6 (UK destroyer)
2 subs, 1 fighter from Norway to SZ 2 (UK battleship + trn)
2 tanks, 2 inf, 1 art, 1 bomber from France/Morocco via transport + Libya + Berlin to Egypt

noncombat moves:
1 fighter from SZ 2 to Norway
2 fighters from Baltic States to Bulgaria/Romania
1 fighter from SZ 6 to SZ 5 (carrier)
1 bomber from Egypt to Libya
2 inf from Germany to Balkans
1 inf from NW Europe to France

R1:
Try to attack Ukraine?
Germany has at least 2 inf, 1 art, 2 tanks left. Russia can attack with 5 inf, 1 tank. This is a 22% chance of success. I suppose Russia will not do this but rather boost the defense of Caucasus. This is the build that give the highest possible defense to Caucasus, although infantery + artillery would probably be better to ensure retaking Caucasus on R2:
2 fighters, 2 tanks to Caucasus

noncombat moves:
1 inf from Eastern Ukraine to Caucasus
1 Inf from Belorussia to Eastern Ukraine
2 Inf from Kazakh SSR to Caucasus
2 Inf from Novosibirsk to Kazakh SSR
3 Inf, 1 tank from Russia to Caucasus

UK, US1:

They cannot reach Caucasus with defensive units except 1 bomber. I suppose UK will not do this.
UK can attack the baltic sea but will only have about 27% chance of success if you managed to sink the destroyer.

I1:
build:
1 trn, 1 inf.

Attack Caucasus with 1 inf, 1 art, 1 battleship, 1 cruiser

G2:
Attack Caucasus with 2 bomber, 2 fighter, 7 tanks (1 from Egypt via transport), 3-4 inf (1 from Balkans via transport), 1 arty.
Chance of success is above 95%. Number of surviving attackers depends on how ferocious the Allies did defend Caucasus. If the British did not land their bomber and the Russians built infantery+artillery instead of fighters + tanks, up to eight(!) units will survive the battle. If you sacrifice the two fighters, depending on Allied strategy two to six tanks will stay in Caucasus.

noncombat move:
1 tank from Germany to Balkans.

Possible continuations include an italian attack on Caucasus with two loaded transports, 1 ftr, 1 battleship and 2 cruisers on I2, reinfoced by a German shipment of 1 inf, 1 tank.

I have tried this opening in an internet game. In G3 I had a 95% chance at Moscow but failed. The concentration of tanks in Eastern Poland allows you to shift targets to the north in case Russia does not take back Baltic States. But even if Russia does so - the 3 inf. in Finland plus your transport and the carrier loaded with two fighters can put considerable pressure on Karelia, and it is possible that you will take Karelia and Caucasus at G2.

What do you think?

[Imperious Leader]

In G3 I had a 95% chance at Moscow but failed.

what? how do you have 95% and how do you fail with these odds?

[Bardoly]

Well, if I am the one playing Germany, then I won’t capture Egypt.  The last 3 games that I’,ve played as the Axis, I’ve only been able to capture Egypt with the all out attack 1 time with 1 armor and no bomber.  Then on UKs turn he attacked with the 2 Trj infantry and liberated Egypt, so no armor, no bomber.  :-(

Actually, to make it clear, you are saying that if you can capture Egypt with 1 arm and save the bomber, and the other battles go okay, then Germany should have about 3 inf, 1 art, 7 arm, 2 fig, and 2 bmb.  That is 41 punch with 15 hits vs Russia’s 10 inf, 1 art, 3 arm, 2 fig, and aa.  That is 39 Punch with 16 hits.  This is NOT a 95% chance of success.  This is basically 50/50 battle depending on what (if any) the aa hits.

Now, yes, I didn’t count Italy’s hits which would be 2 if you’re lucky. which makes Caucaus 35 Punch with 14 hits.  Still not good odds for Germany.  And if UK takes Algeria on turn 1, then the US can hit the German bomber on Liberia if it is not defended.

With tweaking, this possibly could be a good plan, but I don’t exactly understand why you are building the cv in the Baltic.  If you really want the game to go so fast, then why not position all 4 of your fighters to be able to attack Caucaus rather than 2 of them?  And why not build 2 bombers and 1 arm or 2 inf?
With these builds and positions, you can greatly improve the punch/hits ratio in your favor.

With this plan, you can still hit the sz6 dd, and the sz9 dd and tr.

[jemo81]

@ bronstein, i like your initial plan and idea. Especially with Bardoly’s thoughts of buying two bombers which i would also consider myself. However, have any of you considered the ramifications for italy if you follow Bardoly’s plan a let the UK cruiser + destroyer survive. then the UK will have 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer + 1 bomber to hit the italien fleet with. I know the chances aren’t that great, but I don’t think that it is unlikely that the UK player would do it for the chance to prevent italian assistance for caucasus and secondly if the were to manage to kill the italian fleet, then the allies are in a really good position for the remaider of the game. Especially since france would be easy to take and provide the allies with a heavy bonus of 21 (UK 11 with the NO + 6 from france. US 5 from NO).

If italy fleet survives the UK turn and then build the 1 transporter + 1 inf, then it can become difficult to build up a proper shield against future allied attacks on that account since neither germany and italy have build much fodder for the atlantic shores. Finally there is not much supplementary forces that can be send in to support the caucasus attackforces if the first try fails or is recaptured. Finally there is of course also the down luck that you don’t get egypt in the first place.

this is not meant as critique of you bronstein, but more as me highlighting what is percieve as obstackels to overcome to make the “fast caucasus kill” a good approach in my eyes.

[Hobbes]

I’m looking at the odds here and they are not as good as you set them:

Russia has 11 Inf, 3 Arm and 2 Ftr at the end of its turn.

The Italian attack should remove 2 units, leaving 9 inf.

On G2 it attacks with 2 bomber, 2 fighter, 7 tanks (1 from Egypt via transport), 3-4 inf (1 from Balkans via transport), 1 arty. = 64% (attacking with 3 inf) - 76% (with 4 inf), and those percentages might even drop more if the AA gets more planes.

[U-505]

So what is stopping the UK from sinking the german TP in sz15 before the attack? That eliminates 1 inf, 1 arm from the equation.

Since sz5 is too strong to attack, the UK bomber is free to sacrifice itself to prevent the attack.

This particular strategy seems like a one shot gambit to me because Germany builds no infantry to defend it’s core territories on G1 which means that the UK will probably be landing in France on UK1 and just about every turn after that.

And it also means that with only 1 armor built on G1, there will be almost zero German reinforcements to the Russian front for quite a few turns so if the attack is thwarted or fails, Germany is probably doomed.

[Pvt.Patterson]

You really need 3-4 fighters and 3 bombers and its do able. With 7 tanks 3-4 Inf 1 art
R2 Russia buys 4 tanks and puts them in Causuas or 4 Inf in Caucus

Germany                            Russia
2-3 bombers                      1-5    tanks
3-4 fighters                        10- 13 inf 
7    armor                          1 -      art
3-4 Int
1    Art

2 * 4=8  or  3 * 4=12        5 * 3= 15  1 * 3= 3
10* 3=30 or 113= 33        10 2=20  14* 2= 22
2 * 2=4  ->        =4
2 * 1=1  or 3 * 1=3     
–--------------------  -------------------------
        43            52                    35            25

So round one  :-D Taking biggest possible loss rounded down.

43/6 = 7.1  52/6=8.6      35/6= 5.8          25/6= 4.16
30/6 = 5    39/6=6.5      19/6= 3.1          15/6= 2.5
21/6 = 3.5  30/6= 5        3/6  = .5            7/6= 1.16
18/6= 3      27/6= 4.5        gone                  gone

Left?

2-3 bombers
a few tanks
maybe a few fighters

Now Lets see Russia counter attack with a few units!
Let say Caucuas falls back to Russia in R2
I-ties attack
I2
2 tanks    =6
1 fighter  =3
5 inf        =6
1 art      =2
2 CA
1 BB

bombard
10/6 1.6 will die in bombard
17/6 = 5.66
yah… causaus falls I2

Japan reinforces with 2-3 fighters. German reinforce with fighters and 1 tank 2 if from Afrika.

Afrika would be pretty open but Russia would be in the bag by G4 or I4 or the waves of Japan from India and china

If you took Karil in G1 and nocom one tank and only attacked with 6 tanks in caucus i think it might work too.
Then the Russians would have to try to take back 2 cities with just Moscow.

[Bronstein]

Taking Karelia on G1 is no option, if you ask me.

1. Without the fighter in Norway, you won’t be able to sink the British bs + trn. This means that Britain will take back Karelia and Russia can focus on other fronts.

2. If you use the trn in the baltics to attack Karelia, you will be weaker in Baltic States and East Poland. Russia will be able to attack your tank force in East Poland and destroy up to two tanks. That means 4 instead of 7 tanks in Karelia, far too little.

[gebs99]

where do you play this game online???

[Jennifer]

@Bronstein:

Taking Karelia on G1 is no option, if you ask me.

1. Without the fighter in Norway, you won’t be able to sink the British bs + trn. This means that Britain will take back Karelia and Russia can focus on other fronts.

2. If you use the trn in the baltics to attack Karelia, you will be weaker in Baltic States and East Poland. Russia will be able to attack your tank force in East Poland and destroy up to two tanks. That means 4 instead of 7 tanks in Karelia, far too little.

No, it won’t take back Karelia.

Germany can move the Cruiser to SZ 3 blocking the Transport/Battleship from invading Karelia.

Germany could still attack the BB by using submarines in SZ 7 and the bomber instead of tying up the cruiser

Just a couple of things.

[Lucifer]

@gebs99:

where do you play this game online???

In the triplea lobby, but its not supported for the stable version yet.

http://triplea.sourceforge.net/mywiki

The last triplea unstable (AA50) version must be hosted outside the lobby.