@Arthur:
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I would much rather lose control of SZ6 and have the Allies convoy raid the adjacent territories, compared with having either a single Money Island fall firmly into Allied control.�  The economic and strategic swing is significantly bigger.� Â
I totally agree with this.
Lets just say this is the scenario.
Japan holds the money islands and USA has subs parked in SZ6 and SZ19, those two SZ are worth 20 IPC to Japan. So, the worst case scenario is that the USA hits Japan for 20 which results in a wash for the money islands.
note this is a dice game…Variance of dice rolls could only result in a loss of 14 IPC for both SZ…Japan nets a +6 gain then in IPC on that turn for the USA all sub plan.
As long as the USA cannot threaten to take out the Japan homeland with a naval invasion they are still in the game.
If you want to really hurt Japan the Allies need to focus totally on the money islands early and deny them not just the 5 NO bonus but also the IPC for the islands themselves.
Knocking out the money islands and then hit SZ 6 and 19, well that is the death of Japan. Subs alone cannot achieve this goal.