The critical turn for Germany is G5 since they need to have enough protection to move to Bryansk. If I didn’t lose many planes in the opening couple of rounds and Russia hasn’t spent a vast majority of their money on defense, there might be a chance to assault Moscow on G6 or G7. With your Middle Earth strategy bringing a bunch of planes to Moscow early on, I likely would instead move my infantry to Rostov and fast movers to Volgorad. A few fast movers go to the Caucasus for that bonus I should have around 30 fast movers at that point so it is highly unlikely that you would have enough forces to counterattack either of those big stacks. None of these moves that I stated require much luck and the only way to slow down this time table is to put a big stack of Russian infantry as a sacrificial roadblock in the path of the Italian canopeners.
If there is a crisis in Rome, Italy can build an airbase in Bryansk on I5 and the German planes can fly back to S. Italy on G6. Usually I don’t need to spend the PUs on this one-turn gambit, but it is an option if necessary. Likewise the airbase could free up the planes to return to W. Germany if absolutely necessary. Otherwise the planes can be used on G6 for some minor skirmishes and then land in Ukraine and Novgorod, positioning them for further use the next term.
If the Allies are spending a majority of their money in the Europe side of the board, I am looking for an economic victory. Once the economy of the Axis reaches that of the Allies, it is going to be a win for the bad guys in almost every match. Germany is going to try to hold Volgograd, Novgogrod, and the Caucasus, while exchanging units with Russia and UK. I will build 9 land units a turn to support that sector, leaving 40-50 PUs a round to protect W. Europe. Eventually the US will get a foothold in W. France but it takes a long time to have enough forces to withstand a potential German counterattack. Meanwhile Japan should have conquered all of China, forced India to retreat to their capitol, held onto the money islands, and hopefully landed infantry in NG. My next target would likely be Siberia since that can quickly become an 18 PU swing of production.
Nothing I stated is difficult or unlikely. It takes careful execution, but does not rely on any crazy dice rolls. This is certainly not guaranteed victory for the Axis, but neither will I be crushed during the first eight rounds. Sure I see a bunch of novice players get their butts whipped by Russia invading Germany, but that kind of event rarely happens at the upper half of League play.