Looking for Axis ideas against my clan's new Allies campaign

@mobius1:

You know, maybe you’re right. My countering Japan strategy is mostly a throwback to the old version. But now it may be a better choice to have Russia go all out against Germany, since I think I have a good chance of pulling it off.

There have been many times that I could have secured Poland if I had enough tanks…

Put some allied (UK/USA) fighters with that stack of forward Russian troops and you should be able to safely get to/hold Eastern Poland.  That territory is a key piece in the theatre of war.  Whoever controls that (Germany/allies) can effectively dead zone 6 territories that it borders.  Also, those allied fighters are not out of play based in EPL.  In conjunction with the a/c strategy that Argothair posted for an allied navy, the ftrs can even hit france.

As this topic has fallen asleep, I want to discuss the allied bidding strategies in aa50-41, no tech, low-luck, bid: 13 IPC

I - Russian fighter

a) fighter on the western front, maybe on Caucasus to eventually kill the German transport in the med or to Karelia to make a German assault to expensive (high losing risk and forgoing too many other targets) and eventually killing the lone German transport (if the cruiser attacked the UK destroyer)

The 3 IPC left can be used for any allied country, e.g. an infantry in Egypt

b) fighter on the eastern front to Buryatia to kill the transport in SZ 62

b1) With 3 IPC go to the US and buy an infantry on the Philippines, land the fighter there. 3 Inf + 1 Fighter is hard for Japan lacking one transport and having no shore bombardment
b2) With the 3 IPC go to UK, e.g. Egypt, land in Yakut und go to the western front against Germany
b3) With an infantry bid in Burma or India: land in Yunnan. Yes, this is a sacrifice, but 3 Inf + 2 Fighters just allow the Japanese to clear the country, but probably not conquer it. This will slow the Japanese very much in moving against India.

II Anti-Manchuria

Bid: 1 Inf to Buryatia and 1 tank to Soviet far east and one to Stanovoj C.

attack Manchuria with 4 Inf + 2 Tanks - 2,5 units left is the expected result in low luck, means 2 tanks or 2 tank + 1 inf
a hard punch against Japan but no bid for Africa/Europe

III-UK fleet

IIIa destroyer in SZ2

While SZ 2 is still attractive, only 2 subs + fighter + bomber is a safe deal.
Which means Germany has to sacrifice one fighter in SZ 12 for at least one battle round to secure the Italian fleet.

IIIb destroyer in SZ12

in SZ 12 the italien fleet is endangered severely so Germany must attack here.
both attacks, SZ 2 with 1 sub+fighter+bomber and at the same time SZ12 with sub+2 fighter make both somewhat risky, probably losing a fighter for Germany too.

the 5 IPC remaining will probably be a UK tank in Egypt or a Russian tank on the front against Germany

IIIc a sub in SZ12 and a sub in SZ 35

the one in SZ 12 is to threaten Italy, while the one in SZ 35 wants to harrass Japanese ships or lone transports

Buying both at the same time is one option, the other is buy only of of those subs and some ground units

IV - pro Russia

buy any units for Russia for 13 IPC placing them on the front with Germany

V pro UK

buy any units for 13 IPC for UK, maybe to strengthen either India oder Egypt/Africa

Have I missed some good allied bids ?

Early SBRs can slow the Axis war machine if America engages in them, but America also only has the two bombers on Round 1.  That’s 7 IPC usually.  Italy has 23 IPC after Round 1 and Germany has 45 IPC after Round 1.  I don’t see 7 IPC being a huge impact in comparison to the 68 IPC the Europeans have.  It’s barely more than 10%.

If America goes heavy bombers then they are also not going fleet (meaning Japan owns the Pacific and America only gets 1 NO, England none and Russia probably only 1 and Japan gets 3, Italy gets 2 and Germany gets 2.)  If America does not go fleet, then their SBR campaign is offset by the excess IPC the axis are pulling in that the Allies are not. (You need a lot of bombers to dry up the extra 25 IPC the axis will be pulling (possibly 30 IPC if Germany gets the 3rd NO as well) and make up for the cost of lost bombers AND on top of all that, do damage to the enemy.)

I just don’t see it being a winning move.

If a bomber does 1.5 IPC more damage than it costs to replace the bomber in the time it is expected the bomber to be shot down and the axis have 25 IPC in NOs MORE than the Allies (That is 35 IPC in NOs - Allies 10 IPC in NOs = 25 IPC in NOs in excess of the Allies) then it you would need 17 bombers to show a profit.  (16.67 to negate the extra income the Axis are getting and .23 to enter into positive territory.)

If you had 17 Bombers, doing 3.5 IPC each (assuming 3 are shot down by AA Guns before they can fire) you would have:

14 * 3.5 = 49 IPC in damage to the Axis.

Since this, invariably, means in Europe only, you are really limited to 32 IPC in maximum damage you can do.  (12 to Italy, 20 to Germany.)

To recap:

IF the allies do not go into the Pacific and focus on a bomber campaign you have the following:

Axis 7 to 8 NOs
Allies 2 NOs
Net Gain (Axis): +25 IPC

Maximal Damage to Axis Industry: 32 IPC (12 for Italy, 20 for Germany.)
Average Bomber Damage: 3.5 IPC
Average Damage to Bomber: 2 IPC
Net Benefit of Bombing Run: 1.5 IPC

To negate 25 IPC, the Allies need 25/1.5 = 16.67 Bombers
Most likely scenario of 17 Bombers attacking in SBR: 3 Bombers shot down to AA Fire
17 Bombers - 3 Bombers lost to AA Guns = 14 Bombers left
14 Bombers, doing an average of 3.5 IPC each = 49 IPC in combined damage

Maximum Damage Italy/Germany can take: 32 IPC.  Damage from Bombers: 49 IPC.  17 IPC in bomber damage wasted.

And I guess I need not say a word, just read the above post. Little do I post but it seems like I’m obliged.

@atarihuana:

ive seen many people hit sz56 yet often i refuse to do this and rather send 4 fighter to the BB for a clean kill. i dislike sending my only naval fodder unit to get killed round 1. also the british DD / TN off india gets kiled and the planes are in range.  the CA would  be at phillipines or at sz51 with the carriers.  so even if it is a tradeoff and i loose my BB, CA, DD  i still have 3 carriers + my naval builds while US has its remaining subs. not good.

since US has invested most to all of its money in the pacific its no big deal if it takes one more turn to take australia or india.

I had considered this as well.

I have even attempted it a couple of times.

I even thought of keeping the destroyer out and using only the fighters.

My conclusions:

The kill in SZ 53 is virtually assured.  It’s a matter of if you lose only the destroyer or also a fighter, if you send Destroyer, 2 Fighters in to attack the Battleship.

If you keep the destroyer, you risk a fighter, however, you have 9 fighters at the start of the game and 3 carriers, so you have some to spare.  Also, if you keep the destroyer, you can use it, in conjunction with at least 6 of your fighters, to attack SZ 56 if America puts submarines in the water.  This is a plus in my opinion because it means America either does not put only submarines in the water, puts them in SZ 10 instead, or builds surface ships which are more costly giving you an edge to get into position.

However, the added transport and Destroyer gives the American’s too much of an edge, IMHO.  Besides, when are you going to have a 33% chance to trade a fighter for a destroyer AND a transport (10 IPC for 15) and a 67% chance to lose nothing and get a destroyer and a transport in this game?

This is one of many strat suggestions which obviously will not work against decent players.

Okay, tin.  I can buy turn four given the plan goes without hitch and the dice land in Germany’s favor in most of the battles.

Just glad you agree that turn 3 was a little exaggerated. :)

Anyway, turn 4 is pushing the envelope, it could theoretically happen, but realistically speaking, even with building as many tanks as possible with Germany (I say as possible since it’s safe to assume Germany is losing 10-20 IPC a round to SBRs thus reducing Germany’s available income to 30ish IPC) you might be able to break Russia’s back.

I am not saying Germany will lose.  I am saying it would be more realistic for Germany and Japan to plan a tank dash to Moscow with the goal of taking Moscow on Round 6.  This would account for some bad dice and the loss of income to Germany.

imho if japan hits india j2 ,  he can easily set up a southern front against russia. much faster from here, than through china or up north :D much faster than wus attack. can pop out 5 units each turn at burma/india at j4. he doesnt need to defend theeseIC’s against chinese cannonfodder so 25 ipc each round go rolling to caucasus from then on, leaving japan enough for pacific/china

how fast can uk/us set up serious invasion of france/ italy ?