Should Germany take Egypt first turn?

@Imperious:

Italy has a fighter and 2 CA so add two threes.

You are only transporting 2 units so only 2 ships can bombard (1 BB, 1 CA) and the Italian fighter can’t reach Trans-Jordan unless Egypt is taken by Germany on G1 which it wouldn’t be if Germany attacked Trans-Jordan on G1 and UK counterattacked T-J on UK1. UK would still own both T-J and Egypt at the beginning of Ita1 so the Italian fighter couldn’t participate in any battle for T-J.

Germany lands a tank and inf in Libya

So lets say Italy lands a tank and inf in Libya and builds a DD

Uk builds 3 bombers ( in 41)

Germany takes out egypt on G2 ( this includes landing another tank and inf and all planes in range. UK does not survive this no matter what.

Uk takes its bombers (thats all they have left) and hits italian fleet. Italian fleet is 4,3,3,2, and another hit from bb, so 5 hit fleet.

UK has 4 bombers: 4,4,4,4

This is basically an exchange at best, with japan taking care of strangler bombers. , but also remind you I will keep each transport in a seperate sea zone so that UK cant sink some ships.

Now because i have wiped out UK in egypt with great odds i have most of my forces.

If uk, does a thing where they leave a token force in Egypt and backs up to Jordan on UK1, then Italy will kill egypt on I1 and Germany will still hit jordan on G2 but with what basically amounts to a somewhat equal outcome than a G1 attempt

Japan mops up the trash if they fail

Yes, Germany can take T-J with that large British stack on G2 if the Italians soften them up first and the bulk of the Luftwaffe is positioned on G1 to be in range of T-J. And yes again, Japan can also deter the UK from stacking in T-J if they move their sz61 fleet to sz37 to threaten an amphibious landing on J2.

My point is that the UK turn is not static, it’s fluid. If I see Germany move the bulk of their aircraft within range of T-J or Japan moves their sz61 fleet to sz37 then UK can do something else.

Neither one of those moves are the best they can make so I’m not going to argue if the Germans and the Japanese don’t make the best possible opening they can because of a perceived threat that I can act on or not at my discretion.

loses: 48 IPC for UK air plus the allocation of G1 alternative German attacks gets 20+7+12+8=47 off uk naval and loses 2-3 subs

20+24+8+7=59 for Italy naval lost

95 UK loses compared to 59+18=77 lost for axis forces.

I understand that the initial cost is high for the UK. But 95 for 77 isn’t very much difference. That’s only 18 IPC’s. But what you aren’t calculating is how much is the Italian fleet is worth if it is allowed to live those 2 extra turns by not sinking it on UK2.

Can I, as the Allies, save myself the 18 IPC difference by sinking the Italian fleet on UK2 instead of giving it at least 2 turns of continued action before the US sinks it on US3 at the absolute earliest?

Is the Italian fleet operating for 2 extra turns going to make the cost imbalance to sink it higher than the 18 IPC’s it would take for the UK to sink it on UK2? I think it would. Just in the fact that being able to transport 4 more units to Africa will allow them to hold onto their NO’s and conquered territories for a lot longer, enabling them to not only earn more money but also taking money away from the UK for a longer period of time. In addition, the Allies can spend more early game money on ground units and less on navy since they won’t have to blockade the Italian navy in the Med until they can sink it. It also allows the Allies to focus much more attention on Germany because they don’t have to divert nearly as many resources to deal with the extra Italian units in Africa. That is where the real value is, not in the up front cost imbalance.

This does not include land combats, but the exchange is still in the axis favor
now compare that to a 30% success rate for a G1 Egypt attack.

I compare all exchanges to the 80% success rate that a G1 attack on Egypt gives me when I bring the bomber for support because I think that it is the best option for the Axis.

now also consider, if you take Egypt on G1 at 30% ratio, and you also managed to take Jordan, you only bought another turn for the Medd fleet because the determined UK player will reload bombers and send it to Caucasus and wipe you out not matter what. Plus as A. Roll has point out USA will bring 3 bombers in US3  So your trading a very risky attack for the potential of saving the Italians for one extra turn, when you could be taking out 4 naval units on G1 with minimal loses and stocking up for a better attack on Egypt for turn 2, because no matter what Egypt will fall on G2 and you can also spread out your Italian fleet as follows:

sz14- 1 AP-1CA
sz15- 1 BB- AP
sz16- 1 DD
sz17- 1 CA

I think you made a mistake. sz17 is west of FWA. I think you are thinking of sz13.

If Italy spreads out it’s navy, I would go after the ships protecting the transports and ignore the others because the transports are most important.

@a44bigdog:

Japan goes before the UK so I don’t know what you are talking about as far as CVs needed at the Philippines and such. that is under the banner of the Rising Sun J1. At the end of J1 I have 2 CVs in SZ51 and 1 in 37 no problem to move these to 38 and 34 for the 1 in 37. The Italian Fleet may not last long anyway. If the UK wants to trade their 1 IPC heavy build for the luxury of saying they sank it it is fine by me.

And I will let you put token fleets into SZ12 just as fast as the Luftwaffe can sink them also. And the Italian Navy will not even be included in that consideration.

When did I say that CV’s were needed at the Philippines? I said that most of the sz61 navy usually goes to sz50 and the Philippines attacks on J1 and by moving even a few of them to sz37 instead of participating in the Philippines attacks it may allow some Allied units that otherwise die to survive.

There is only 1 CV capable of reaching T-J with it’s aircraft on J2 and that is the one in sz61. But that isn’t even what I was referring to. I was saying that if you want to be able to threaten the UK from stacking in Trans-Jordan, then you would have to bring the sz61 TP’s to sz37, and since those TP’s don’t usually move to sz37 on J1 then you would be adjusting J1 into a weaker opening than Japan would normally make. I didn’t say Japan had to make this opening, I didn’t even say that Japan must move anything to sz37. All I said was that if Germany doesn’t attack Egypt on G1, the Axis would need to have Japan move navy and units into sz37 to threaten a landing if you want to prevent the Italian fleet from being sunk.

If you think that the Italian fleet getting sunk in trade for UK bombers on UK2 is advantageous to the Axis, then you are entitled to that opinion. I don’t share it. Clearly I value the Italian navy more than you do because I think that it needs to be protected in the initial few turns whether the Allies make a concerted effort to sink it or not.

And just for the record, I would never put an inadequate navy in sz12 for the Luftwaffe to sink. I would put just enough navy in sz12 to make it a 50/50 battle and judging by your previous posts you seem to be fast and loose with your German air force so I’m pretty sure you’d take that bait. And you may even get lucky dice and walk away with a bomber or 2, but the Allies, and the US in particular, can produce navy a lot faster than Germany can produce aircraft so you wouldn’t be making too many of those air raids on Allied shipping after that initial one. In addition, Germany throwing away the Luftwaffe for Allied shipping makes Russia very happy.

Look if you want to play a game so I can prove how much it would hurt the Axis to lose the Italian fleet on UK2, then we can do that. I rarely turn down a challenge.

I’m starting to lean towards a Destroyer buy for Italy early on.  A second transport eventually won’t hurt since now you can fire all three broadsides at enemy combatants, but the destroyer at least protects you from Sub-stalling! (About the ONLY thing that Russian submarine is good for!)

@Cmdr:

I’m starting to lean towards a Destroyer buy for Italy early on.  A second transport eventually won’t hurt since now you can fire all three broadsides at enemy combatants, but the destroyer at least protects you from Sub-stalling! (About the ONLY thing that Russian submarine is good for!)

There is NO substalling in this game

You can always ignore the sub just like you can ignore a transport

Really, the russian sub is pretty worthless in this game now.

Really?  The submarine doesn’t even stop the transport from moving into the sea zone, picking up units and moving out?

@Cmdr:

Really?  The submarine doesn’t even stop the transport from moving into the sea zone, picking up units and moving out?

nope.

You can only block this activity with a DD, a/c, CA, or BB

Wish I had known that a bit earlier….coulda saved me some headaches I have now…oh well.

@Cmdr:

Wish I had known that a bit earlier….coulda saved me some headaches I have now…oh well.

Old habits are hard to break…

I’ve read many a player admit to leave unescorted tpts on mistake as well

I do believe the new naval rules make it a much better game.

Oh I agree!  Navy is more fun now, and I’ve always been a big navy girl! (Hence my title as Fleet Killer.)  The new sea zones in the Pacific really help too.

U-505 I would welcome the chance to play you but at the moment I have 6 games going on with another one probably about to start. Perhaps soon as some of these games finish up we can play a game. I honestly think you are making too many assumptions of Axis troop dispositions and positions.

I’ll take you up any time, 505.  Just let me know. :)

Then again, I’m hungry for games because once Feb hits, I’m gunna have to cut WAY back again.

Ok here is the new take and it has nothing to do with this attack or not attack Egypt on G1 strategy.

UK can easily wipe out the entire Italian fleet one turn latter and your just doing a risky battle ( with 30-40% success) to allow it to survive one EXTRA TURN.

UK just builds in Caucasus after another turns worth of purchases.

So Under my system i stock pile 4 land units ( 2 tanks and 2 inf) and take Egypt on G2 and i take it strong and w/o huge loses.

Also the allocation of German air assets to sink the UK fleets (5 ships gone) is achieved w/o major loses, but lost if played any other turn.

Under the G1 Egypt you get massacred and lose most of your units only to forestall the survivability of Italian fleet for ONE extra turn.

If a very simple choice.

How are you taking Egypt “strong?”

You don’t take Egypt on Germany 1.

England reinforces with 2 Infantry (at least) and sinks the SZ 14 Italian Fleet on UK 1.

Now it’s 2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor vs 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter(s)

Your odds just got worse!

MY plan:

Now it’s 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter(s)= 17

vs:

3 tanks, 1 art, 4 infantry, 1 bomber, 3 fighters on G2= 29

followed by Italy with 3 infantry, 1 tank, 1 fighter= 9

your plan:

UK: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 tank, 1 fighter= 13

VS:

2 tanks, 2 inf, 1 art, 1 bomber plus ? 15?

Your plan can lose the entire Italian fleet by UK3

My plan can lose the entire Italian fleet by UK2

You plan allows the landing of 2 extra land units, while my plan is a much better attack and saves the potential defeat of the battle itself for africa, and also for greater loses performing a risky battle. I suspect in your battle you will lose at least 2 more pieces than i will and gaining just 2 IPC for these efforts, while i take out 5 UK ships for a few lost subs.

Also, since i take egypt strong on G2 the UK bombers also die because landing in Jordan commits them to die on Italian 2 or G3.

Also, consider the italians buy that destroyer, and the ensuing battle its 4,4,4,3–-vs. 4…3.3.2, which is kinda worse that your own Egypt G1 attack in terms of success. ( remember the Italian BB is 2 hits)

How are you getting the extra infantry and tank?

And you are positioning your fighters in Bulgaria?  So you are leaving France/NW Europe, Scandinavia and SZ 5 open to England?

How are you getting the extra infantry and tank?

On G1 the Germans medd tranny drops off a tank and inf. The morroco inf moves right
On G2 Germany lands 1 tank and 1 inf, plus all the junk from Libya

And you are positioning your fighters in Bulgaria?  So you are leaving France/NW Europe, Scandinavia and SZ 5 open to England?

2 fighters land in morroco from killing SZ 12 and third German fighter in france, bomber is out of reach actually because it must land in Norway, but i can switch out the allocations to allow a bomber in Sz12 and include the Bomber, but its not the best move IMO.

3 tanks, 1 art, 4 infantry, 0-1 bombers, and 3 fighters on G2= 29, but also remember i can build an additional German bomber on G1 for additional safety for the attack.

Okay, but don’t forget, England’s going to see you stacking Libya like no tomorrow and you’ll have to have equipment in Italy or Bulgaria to use to invade.

England’s not just going to sit there and watch.  They’ll most likely pull out of Egypt and build up bombers to sink the Med fleet.

You’ll have 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter(s) in Jordan instead of Egypt, and you’ll have 4 Bombers prepped and on the tarmac to hit Egypt next round if they don’t get a juicy Med Fleet target.

Really, you only have that first round to hit Egypt.  You are not getting a second chance at that fighter.

BTW, the ensuing SZ 14 battle is miscalculated on your end:

If Italy buys the Destroyer:

Italy: 4, 3, 3, 2
England: 4, 4, 4, 4, 3
(4 Bombers, 1 Fighter)

Assumes no ships in SZ 12

I think if Italy sees a 3 bomber buy on UK1, they should just go and be the best little brother they can be and support Germany in Ukraine (in what ever capacity is needed: add units or offshore into caucasus)

With $36 spend on planes, there won’t be much bad door pressure on Germany.

Germany can also pull some units from africa on G2 to Bulgaria/ukraine/caucasus.

Okay, but don’t forget, England’s going to see you stacking Libya like no tomorrow and you’ll have to have equipment in Italy or Bulgaria to use to invade.

England’s not just going to sit there and watch.  They’ll most likely pull out of Egypt and build up bombers to sink the Med fleet.

well thats also true, but if i saw that id have Italy take out both Egypt and Jordan and if they fail at one of these G2 will finish the job and deny the bombers landing space. IN any event the Italian fleet dies on UK2 or UK3…

and then there is the new idea about dispersing the fleet which has yet to be looked at. I advise to move the two transports separately from the warships because they are not hit allocations: so its 1 AP, 1 AP, and 1BB, 2CA, 1DD

Now thats forces 1 bomber  and another bomber to allocate on both transports and 4,4,3 against 4(2),3,3,2…which means i save my fleet and UK loses its bombers, because Japan has fighters at threes hitting bombers that may escape, unless they go to Caucasus.

You’ll have 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter(s) in Jordan instead of Egypt, and you’ll have 4 Bombers prepped and on the tarmac to hit Egypt next round if they don’t get a juicy Med Fleet target.

Well on I1 we take Jordan and on G2 Egypt falls… bombers have no home. If you retreat to Jordan entirely, then on I1, Italy takes Egypt and the German tanks blitz and Germany now has somewhat less: 3 tanks, 1 inf, 3 fighters, 1 bomber= 23

Really, you only have that first round to hit Egypt.  You are not getting a second chance at that fighter.

I agree with this, but i am trading that one fighter for 5 UK ships on alternative G1 air allocations and targets.

BTW your also correct on your other post, but the battle results in pretty much mutual destruction and id like to see that.

If i was UK i would wait a turn and get my bombers in Caucasus anyway, which also gets my bombers away from Japanese intentions.

Unfortunately, UK bombers in Caucasus takes away money from Russia so it is to be avoided if at all possible.

And you have to take into account that if Egypt and Trans-Jordan are taken by the Axis, Allied bombers built in UK on UK2 can’t reach the Italian fleet on UK3 so you would only have the initial UK aircraft and the UK1 builds to contest the Italian fleet. And if the Italian player is smart, their turn 1 build is a fighter and their turn 2 build is a CV making the fleet impervious to all but the most desperate attacks. That’s why the Allies have to play for the UK2 kill or the Italian fleet will get their CV and air cover and survive for 2 more turns, at least. Not the 1 turn like you suggest.

And you also have to account for an Allied attack on Algeria. If you leave 2 German fighters without fodder sitting in Algeria prepared for a second round attack on Trans-Jordan, I would abandon the UK bomber build and take my remaining UK TP with 1 inf, 1 arm supported by the UK bomber and possibly the Egyptian fighter and attack Algeria.

That’s a double bonus for the Allies because it not only kills two German fighters but it also possibly takes Algeria and eliminates an Italian NO unless they send units away from Egypt and counterattack Algeria. That right there weakens the German position because you have to allocate German ground units to cover the fighters.