@Lynxes:
- India reinforcement, 2 inf
Italy: 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, bombard: 1 BB, 2 CA= 10 shore bombard, 16 attack.
UK: 4 inf, 1 tank, 1 ftr= 17
Probable end result: Italy takes Egypt with 1 arm, 1 ftr.
Huh? How? 1st, only 2 ships can bombard because you’re only landing 2 ground troops. 2nd, the chances of taking Egypt with that attack are very small…if you hit 0/2 bombards it’s not gonna happen, 1/2 bombards gives a 13% chance to take, 2/2 bombards gives 37% chance to take…And I forgot to mention the UK can move his India destroyer through the Suez before i1 making bombardment impossible.
@Lynxes:
- No india reinforcement:
Italy: 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, bombard: 1 BB, 2 CA= 10 shore bombard, 16 attack.
UK: 2 inf, 1 tank, 1 ftr= 13
Probable end result: Italy takes Egypt with 2 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr.
Again, only 2 can bombard, if 0 hit it’s again 37% to take, 1 hit = 69%, 2 hits = 93%. So yes, in this case if UK does not ship units from India and does not move the destroyer through the Suez you should make that attack. But that would be a bad move by UK. If he will neither move the units from India to Egypt nor move the destroyer to prevent bombardment then he should move out of Egypt, either toward SAF (if he wants a SAF complex?) or toward India. Or he could still reinforce TJ and then counter-attack Egypt on UK2 because your 4 ground troops won’t be able to hold it vs. what he can bring and you have no German troops to help defend it because you threw their trans away.
@Lynxes:
I doubt if UK actually can take 2 inf from India and build an IC, since then it won’t be defended. And I wouldn’t pour troops into India to be killed and lose India in the process. UK will fight Africa either from a South African IC or from landings in North or West Africa.
So nr 2) is the probable scenario, and here Italy can afford to leave the BB outside of Italy and build a TRS safely and not fear attacks by that BMB, and still win the fight.
I can’t see why Germany needs to get troops into Africa. This is an italian theater of war!
1: As I said Japan might not even have anything to threaten India until J3, and then maybe not much. By then UK can move troops back from Egypt to India if he held Italy off, and that 1 round of stalling is worth a lot. With Japan having to deal with Russia in the north, China in the west, and the US probably building a decent Pacific navy, I’m not sure how heavy he can go after India.
2: As I said, UK can bring the bomber down to the Mid-East on UK1, and then the BB+trans in sz 14 are threatened by fighter+bomber, good odds for UK.
3: I agree that Italy is going to be focusing on Africa much more than Germany, but I do not agree that Germany should not care about reserving its Med. trans to move guys to Africa if need be. If the battle for Africa goes poorly for Italy in the the 1st 1-2 rounds then a German trans moving a couple guys can really help in a theater where a small amount of troops means a lot more than a dense area like Europe.