L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3

axis-dominion

thanks @farmboy for pointing that mistake out and @gamerman01 for correcting it. i haven’t had a chance to verify my games, i know adam had found a mistake in one of the matches between us as well. i’ve played so many games that it doesn’t surprise me there’d be a few errors lol

also, just for fun, i asked chatgpt to calculate the odds of that 1st round combat in 110 and after a lot of calculations this is what it computed:

gamerman01

Does that probability include the tiny chance that the result was even worse, or is it the probability of that exact result only?

axis-dominion

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Does that probability include the tiny chance that the result was even worse, or is it the probability of that exact result only?

<ducks for cover>

yeah it’s simplictically just that exact result… so it doesn’t include if it was the worst possible outcome lol

GovZ

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

There have been more than a few errors in that time span. Apparently I need to double check all those.
Oh shoot, we have from 2019 to 2023 that were not officially double checked and they were entered before we were recording initials of the player who did the data entry.

Would be fun to check them and correct errors! If you verify entries, just enter your initials in the data checked column

Now that my work deadline is over, I can go back to checking the data. July 2019 is checked - the only change needed was a missing game on 7/16/19 - BM3: AtV (L+0) over Dawg (X).

For now, that should have bounced AD even higher in the stratosphere

Umm, so either I’m really baked, or all of August, September, & October 2019 are missing from the data. That would be one more win for AD and several more for FB.

gamerman01

I thought I’d lost you for awhile, shoulda tagged you but you sniffed it out anyway

3 months of 2019 not even entered. Guess that would have been found soon since we were going to start double checking, but good grief.

I never played a game in 2019 so didn’t notice.
Some of those recent years were done (or not done, as the case may be) by volunteers when Roboto opened up the entry task to anyone who wanted, like wikipedia style or something

OK, GovZ will dive back in and maybe I will sometime too.
3 months more data will make things more accurate. No one has noticed their games weren’t all in there.

Let’s get 'er done before 12/31, playoff implications.

JDOW

@GovZ said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

Games like this is why I prefer no low luck.
Gamblers ans those who watch the gambles need being reminded from time to time that aggressive play can lead to quick game losses:-)

@axis-dominion game on, we await #4.
play a safe opener this time and show if you can beat the champ the „boring“ way or whether good dice early on are required to stand a chance vs Farmboy‘s deadly Allies.

axis-dominion

@JDOW said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

@GovZ said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

Games like this is why I prefer no low luck.
Gamblers ans those who watch the gambles need being reminded from time to time that aggressive play can lead to quick game losses:-)

@axis-dominion game on, we await #4.
play a safe opener this time and show if you can beat the champ the „boring“ way or whether good dice early on are required to stand a chance vs Farmboy‘s deadly Allies.

well this last game that wasn’t decided by dice, i wouldn’t say i had good dice in particular, the battles were ok, i mean i did lose 5 german air so i felt the battles weren’t too bad either way. sounds like you’re implying that game was decided by good dice, and i don’t believe that’s the case at all.

axis-dominion

and yes we’re currently negotiating a 4th game, but this time with some small tweaks we’d like to try out that might make it a bit more interesting and different.

farmboy

I’m sure dice played a role in the earlier game (in that they always do) but I don’t recall ever thinking that the dice were bad for me. There were combats where I would have liked a better outcome, but there were ones where I did better than I could have reasonably expected too. I do think I made a pretty poor and consequential choice in round 1 and AD was able to capitalize on it. The game that resulted though was quite fun in that we both had to play quite differently as a result.

farmboy

But I don’t like low luck either. And its precisely because I think these decisions around odds are an important of the game (at least for me). And actually in this situation, a low luck game would give me more reason to scramble since I’d have certainty I would take out German air that are going to be badly needed elsewhere on the board. Its going to lead to more boring, conservative play.

axis-dominion

yeah for the record as upset as i get about any given dicing, i wouldn’t have it any other way… low luck is not for me. live by the dice, die by the dice lol

GovZ

@axis-dominion said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

yeah for the record as upset as i get about any given dicing, i wouldn’t have it any other way… low luck is not for me. live by the dice, die by the dice lol

I totally get it and probably agree. I’m just still bitter about losing back to back alpha series games after I failed to take Paris on G1 both times. One of these decades I’ll get over it.

@gamerman01 said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

3 months of 2019 not even entered. Guess that would have been found soon since we were going to start double checking, but good grief.

OK, GovZ will dive back in and maybe I will sometime too.
3 months more data will make things more accurate. No one has noticed their games weren’t all in there.

The data I’ve checked has been very accurate - I think I’ve found only 5 errors in over 700 games. I am interested to see how adding 3 months of data at once will change things. The players that are still around since 2019 have played so many games, I don’t think it will have much of an impact at all.

Let’s get 'er done before 12/31, playoff implications.

I’ll have the 2018 - present games checked long before then. It’s the pre-2018 games I’m wondering about.

L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3

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