@VictoryFirst said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):
However regardless of the outcome it will not convince me of anything. A game will never be completely average, there will always be some up and downs for both sides in some cases and that also has an effect on the balance.
Oh YES! Don’t think for even a second I am thinking games will be average. In fact, we KNOW they will not. Therefore, with even Dice, the Allies HAVE to win, otherwise the game is definitely unbalanced in favor of the Axis.
Just like Global 1940 the Allies have to win more than the Axis. In Global 1940 the Allies have to win on BOTH sides of the board; whereas the Axis only one to win on ONE side of the board. Thus, in Global 1940, for the game to be even, the Axis can only have a 37% chance of winning on either side. (37% plus 23% = 50%)
It is even worse in DDay. For me, I think there are 4 parts:
Early game (Rounds 1, 2 and 3)
Cherbourg
St. Lo
Caen
The Allies have to win in all 4 parts, the Germans only have to win in one. BTW I think an argument could be made that Caen and St Lo might be 1.5 instead of 2 due to they are kind of close but only tanks can move back and forth so I like to count it as two separate areas.
Therefore, the question is how much bad luck can the Allies take and still win? That is what the testing is for.
For example: Let’s assume the Allies win 100% of the time when they get fair dice. But they lose 20% of the time when they get bad dice in one area and they lose 60% of the time when they get very bad dice in any one area.
Looking at the Bell Curve = 15% low, 70% even, and 15% high. If we define Bad dice as getting less than your opponent and Very Bad dice as getting 2 levels of dice below your opponent then using this matrix we get:
45fff90e-eee2-4964-b6b4-03dbb996e5e6-image.png
Bad Dice = 10.5% + 2.25% +10.5% = 23.25% x 20% = 4.65%
Very Bad Dice = 2.25% = 2.25% x 60% = 1.35%
4.65% + 1.35% = 6%
Times four areas = 24% of the time the Axis wins.
So, the testing is really to try and give us an idea of how easily the Allies win with fair luck to see how much bad luck they need to lose.