@AndrewAAGamer said in Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer):
Hi @crockett36. Thank you for the comment. I assume you are referring to this section of my article.
Risky Attacks: I see plenty of people do risky attacks to gain an advantage. One example is the J1 attack on the ANZAC SZ62 fleet. The goal is to kill the ANZAC destroyer and transport and thus remove the capability of ANZAC to take Dutch New Guinea on A1. Let’s look at that battle:
• 40% of the time the Japanese destroyer dies. (-8)
• 40% of the time the ANZAC destroyer and transport dies (+20)
• 20% of the time both the ANZAC Destroyer and Japanese destroyer die (0)
• 13% of the time the Japanese destroyer kills the cruiser on the counter attack (+12)
• Total Average TUV = $6.3
So that looks like a pretty good battle. On average for an $8 investment I can get a $6.3 return. Dang good! So, the battle makes sense to conduct. Right? Maybe; it depends. The real question is do you need to win that battle to win the game? Are you the weaker Player, the stronger Player or are you both the same caliber of Player? If you are the weaker Player you may need to take more risks than your opponent. But if you are not then why make the attack? Let’s look at the battle from a different perspective. If you need to kill the transport to win the game than you have already lost the game 60% of the time. And if you can win without killing the transport why risk your overall game 40% of the time when you get nothing out of the attack? What we want to achieve is consistent winning. Not winning only when we get lucky dice; but due to our good play.
As I mentioned many people will do a Risky Attack to gain an advantage. One normally wants to gain an advantage so they can win. :)
If you perform a risky attack to gain an advantage are you not trying to improve your chances of winning? If the risk fails than have you not reduced your chances of victory because not only did you not gain an advantage you created a disadvantage for yourself?
The whole overall theme of my article was to try and teach a Player to be better so they do not have to rely on the dice. In fact, alleviate the dice as much as possible because dice are random. While trying to gain an advantage by making what is a reasonable risky attack on AVERAGE you will increase your odds of winning. However you will also harm your chances of winning when the dice are not average. If your style of play requires making good risky attacks than you are limiting your total possible winning percentage.
Let’s look at this another way. Let’s say we use a strategy that requires average dice to win. That means I will win my games 66.6% of the time. Good dice of 33.3% plus Average dice of 33.3% = 66.6%. I am only losing when I get Bad dice of 33.3% of the time. Now a Player may be happy to win 66.6% of the time but what I want to do is to win 75% or more of my games againsts good players. And to do that you need to remove dice from the game as much as possible.
So if you need to make reasonable risky attacks to win then do so. I am not saying they are bad I am saying only make them if you need them to win. If you do not need them to win then don’t do them and risk losing. Why take risks you do not need to?
I remember one face to face game where I was Germany and I had a 98% chance of taking Moscow, to essentially win the game. My partner asked me if I was going to make the attack and I said “No. Why should I? Next Turn I will have a 99% chance and there is nothing that will change on the board forcing me to make the attack now.” I did not need to take that 2% risk so why do it? In another face to face game I only had a 48% chance to take Moscow and end the game. I was not planning on taking it. However, my Partner suffered an excruciating loss of the IJN on his Turn and suddenly we had no choice. It was either attack now at 48% or next Turn it would only be worse odds and things would go downhill for us all over the board. So I made the attack at 48% because I had to; it was a reasonable risk. BTW I won. :) Geez that pissed off our opponents.
Nicely written, BUT!
In the end, two Things remain.
A.) It will be a 50/50 chance each time, b/c either you won or you lost.
B) even if you play as much as possible without taking risks, if your opponent makes a risky move, doesn’t this call off your whole riskfree playstyle and awareness??
I understand what you are saying, but you also have to consider that it will be a Philosophie of each and everybodys playstyle.
I used tp play taking a lot of risks bc I wanted to make “neccessary” shortcuts.
Most of the time I lost my games.
Today, I try to make good calls, but when opportunity arises, I still may consider them in my thinking.
And when I take a risk now, it will come with a back up plan.
G1 is a very risky move when you plan on to knock out two sz at once.
106 is a straight 50/50 gamble when you hit it with one Sub only.
And you just increase your chance for an additional 50/50 outcome by taking a second Sub with you!
The best way to engage combat is,
When you take enough force to combat that you should easily wipe out your opponents units in the very first round.
So you are right on to wait for another round to get a full 100%-110% of a kill instead of an 86 to 9? % in crucial battles.
You want to have that, everything else is cold coffee if you ask me.
