2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666

666

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 2

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 2

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 5 fighters and 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Politics - Germans
        Germans takes Political Action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese
            Germans succeeds on action: Political Action Germans To War With Chinese: Changing Relationship for Germans and Chinese from Neutrality to War

    Combat Move - Germans
        2 bombers, 4 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 92 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to 92 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 mech_infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux

    Combat - Germans
        British scrambles 3 units out of Gibraltar to defend against the attack in 92 Sea Zone
        Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans attack with 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            French defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans, 1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from French with 2 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in 92 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the British Submerged
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/12 hits, 7.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/9 hits, 4.83 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the British, 1 destroyer owned by the British, 2 cruisers owned by the British, 3 fighters owned by the Germans, 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 1 carrier owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 3/6 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 4 fighters and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 3 : 4/4 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 3 fighters owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 transport in 92 Sea Zone, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in 92 Sea Zone
            British win with 1 fighter and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -40
            Casualties for Germans: 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 5 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for British: 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
        Moving scrambled unit from 92 Sea Zone back to originating territory: Gibraltar

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Romania
        5 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Romania
        2 aaGuns moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        6 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from France to Yugoslavia
        1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 114 Sea Zone to Poland
        1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 submarine moved from 106 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Germans
        5 fighters placed in Western Germany
        3 infantry placed in France
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 46 PUs
        Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 51 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -4.50
British : 3.17
French : 1.00

Savegame

oysteilo

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

and the dice gods say FU to me…LOL, couldn’t hit with a 3 or a 4…well my 90% wasn’t so good now was it…I think I may resign and not carry this dicing into next year…stay tuned. Office party today.

All right. At least enjoy your office party. I must admit i had overlooked/not really considered this an option. I will put this on hold for now

JDOW

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

Hi Jim,

I took a look at the map and I can tell you, this kind of aggressiveness is not beneficial for the Axis for 2 reasons:

90% odds is a deceptive number. I would see the battle outcome as follows
From bottom to top percentiles:
1-10: Total fail, Allies win
11-30: Phyrric victory. Axis may have won this battle but the Luftwaffe is crippled. This causes way more trouble than the fleet in 92 could have caused.
31-70: Well, not sure who is better now. You may have eliminated a threat but lost plenty of planes. You were supposed to by 15+ fast movers that march towards Moscow and you bought zero.
71-100: That went well, the Axis are ahead now.

If you look at the outcomes like this, you are a 2 to 1 underdog to come out ahead after this attack. In addition, the top and bottom 30% are not equal. Top 30 give you an edge but there is LOTS to do still, bottom 30% and you are wrecked.

The battle did not give you major strategic gains even if you won. You always have to consider the strategic implications this battle could have. You can take a look at my 2nd game I played vs Simon this year. I made the same attack at 92, too but with the following differences.

I had 2 subs in 91 that could attack
Odds were 100%
Winning the battle would give my Gib AND Egypt.
–> I went for it, lost 1 plane more than I should have, got Gib AND Egypt and Simon resigned in turn 2

The problem here, in your game, was: There weren’t any major strategic gains on the table.
You would have neither gotten Gob nor Egypt with that move and that makes a HUGE difference.
IF you go for such a risky battle, the reward must be more than just killing the fleet. If it is not, the attack is not a good idea.

Bottom line: I would say you can be happy that MARTI made it easy for you. Axis are screwed now and you can resign. Worse outcome would have been if you would have hit in round 3 in that battle. Then you would have won with lousy bomber remaining and would have fought a long uphill battle that would have ended in defeat after a long misery.

JDOW

And btw: DON’T put your boats in 114 after G1 but in 113. In this case, UK would not have been in the position to make such a greedy move in UK1, as a G2 sea lion with 1 TT would be on the table in that case, plus a G3 sealion would have become a bigger threat, too.

simon33

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

And btw: DON’T put your boats in 114 after G1 but in 113. In this case, UK would not have been in the position to make such a greedy move in UK1, as a G2 sea lion with 1 TT would be on the table in that case, plus a G3 sealion would have become a bigger threat, too.

What about if you’re intending a G2 DOW on USSR? 114 prevents blockers in the Baltic. I personally like 112 if at all possible because you can also go over the top.

I will correct one minor point. I conceded our game after G3. So not a turn 2 concede. Thankfully.

oysteilo

@simon33 i think @JDOW s point is, look how aggressive the british are when you put your boats in 112. No units bought for London and no planes in london either on british 1. If you are worried about the USSR cruiser blocking you, i think in this situation you have to commit italian planes

oysteilo

114, sorry

simon33

Hmm, Italian planes are always an option I suppose but I don’t like it much when a BB can absorb the potential hit.

JDOW

I prefer a g2 Dow against Russia but I don‘t mind blockers. Russia can defend Novo anyway against a possible amphibious invasion so the Russian boats don‘t bother me.

In fact, I used to put the tt in 114, too back then just to bring to extra inf to Poland.

In general, this is not too crucial. Uk can have. Greedy UK1 if they like. Not the end of the world.

And sorry re turn 2/3 Simon: but the game was basically over after turn 2 as losing both, Gib and Egypt was inevitable.

simon33

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

And sorry re turn 2/3 Simon: but the game was basically over after turn 2 as losing both, Gib and Egypt was inevitable.

True enough.

666

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@oysteilo said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

@666 full scramble. Looks like i messed this up :(

the dice gods get their say first…I decided to be more aggressive this game.

Hi Jim,

I took a look at the map and I can tell you, this kind of aggressiveness is not beneficial for the Axis for 2 reasons:

90% odds is a deceptive number. I would see the battle outcome as follows
From bottom to top percentiles:
1-10: Total fail, Allies win
11-30: Phyrric victory. Axis may have won this battle but the Luftwaffe is crippled. This causes way more trouble than the fleet in 92 could have caused.
31-70: Well, not sure who is better now. You may have eliminated a threat but lost plenty of planes. You were supposed to by 15+ fast movers that march towards Moscow and you bought zero.
71-100: That went well, the Axis are ahead now.

If you look at the outcomes like this, you are a 2 to 1 underdog to come out ahead after this attack. In addition, the top and bottom 30% are not equal. Top 30 give you an edge but there is LOTS to do still, bottom 30% and you are wrecked.

The battle did not give you major strategic gains even if you won. You always have to consider the strategic implications this battle could have. You can take a look at my 2nd game I played vs Simon this year. I made the same attack at 92, too but with the following differences.

I had 2 subs in 91 that could attack

Odds were 100%

Winning the battle would give my Gib AND Egypt.
–> I went for it, lost 1 plane more than I should have, got Gib AND Egypt and Simon resigned in turn 2

The problem here, in your game, was: There weren’t any major strategic gains on the table.
You would have neither gotten Gob nor Egypt with that move and that makes a HUGE difference.
IF you go for such a risky battle, the reward must be more than just killing the fleet. If it is not, the attack is not a good idea.

Bottom line: I would say you can be happy that MARTI made it easy for you. Axis are screwed now and you can resign. Worse outcome would have been if you would have hit in round 3 in that battle. Then you would have won with lousy bomber remaining and would have fought a long uphill battle that would have ended in defeat after a long misery.

good analysis…you take this way deeper and with much more thought than I do and this is why you have such a consistently strong record…You are right. I would have been happy with killing his fleet for the loss of 6 fighters which I purchased to replace the ones I expected to lose. losing all aircraft and not even taking out the Brit trn was more than I could bare…appreciate your analysis

666

@JDOW said in 2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666:

And btw: DON’T put your boats in 114 after G1 but in 113. In this case, UK would not have been in the position to make such a greedy move in UK1, as a G2 sea lion with 1 TT would be on the table in that case, plus a G3 sealion would have become a bigger threat, too.

this makes sense as well, recently I have been bringing two extra G inf onto the R border for a G2 attack into Russia but the G2/G3 sea lion threat might be better at keeping the UK spread out.

2020 BM3 - Oystello (allies +6) v 666

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 2

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