Allied bid placement strategies

@ErwinRommel:

There is only one way allies should bid in 41.
Bid should be:

inf egypt
rest goes to soviet, use it only against germany

No fishy bids against japan, no navy bid for uk, if axis knows what to do you have lost already. Germany will hit Karelia, Egypt, Baltic, EP and Ukraine on the same time, game over…

If anyone disagree ill show the move.

Sounds like more of a gambit to me, especially with the Karelia AAA being a huge variable.
Too many battles that can go wrong.  I’m sure when they all are successful, Germany wins easily.
How often does that happen?

Does Germany attack ANY UK shipping?

@axis_roll:

Sounds like more of a gambit to me, especially with the Karelia AAA being a huge variable.
Too many battles that can go wrong.  I’m sure when they all are successful, Germany wins easily.
How often does that happen?

Does Germany attack ANY UK shipping?

I was going to respond earlier, but thought I’d prefer if someone else weighed in on this one first.
I agree with axis_roll.  Attacking Karelia with everything available (except bomber which is going to Egypt) is a very aggressive move.  Sure, if all these battles work out well Germany would be in a great position.  But you can’t effectively attack the UK warships without any aircraft, and Karelia could be a disaster.  When you lose 2 or more planes there, it’s a major backfire.  Egypt is not a sure thing either.
Anyway, I do disagree, Erwin.  If I really want to make sure I win the game I will never attack Karelia on G1, and certainly not Karelia and Egypt at the same time.  When your 5 attacks work, you no doubt look like a genius.  But according to the odds, many times it will fail, and then you look incompetent, and might lose, too.
Enjoyed considering your idea, but no thanks.  There are reasons I have almost never seen anyone attack Karelia G1.  One of them is AA.  Another is reduced odds on BSt, EPl, and Ukr, Z6 (you have no air support).  If you lose one of them you lose the NO which would offset the one you get if you win in Karelia.  Another is no attack or less effective attack on Z2 and Z12.  If you don’t take down Russia fast, you will have severe issues with a powerful UK fleet with many transports.

Do you know how to play online?  :-)

Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
      2inf and 5tnk

CM:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

attack zone 6 with sub

attack zone 9 two subs

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

attack EP inf,3tnk

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…

Thanks for the details, Rommel
I look forward to reviewing your opening again when I have a few minutes…

@ErwinRommel:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

Upper 25% result - Lose 1 infantry, 1 fighter
Median result - Lose 3 infantry, 1 fighter
Bottom 25% result - Lose 3 infantry, 2 fighters
So if you get “seriously unlucky”, you might lose all your ground units and a couple of planes and not even take Karelia.

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

OK.

attack zone 6 with sub

40% chance you win, 40% chance you lose, 20% chance you both lose boat.  This is one of the things you’re giving up with your Karelia attack.  Using a fighter makes it highly unlikely the UK destroyer survives.

attack zone 9 two subs

40.7% chance you sink them both, 57% chance you lose both subs and the cruiser (or both) survives, 23.6% chance that you lose both subs and sink nothing at all.

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

OK

attack EP inf,3tnk

OK…. but you could lose 3 tanks this way after the counterattack…

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

OK…

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

Depending on how unlucky and where and how many battles you lose, you could have huge problems.  It is pretty likely the UK will have a battleship, cruiser, destroyer, and 2 transports to start with (could have 3 destroyers if you are unlucky).  AA could shoot down a plane or 2 in Karelia, and/or you could lose a plane or two trying to take the territory.

This is a very aggressive and risky opening - not just for the G1 dice you will roll, but it’s also risky because you’re likely leaving the UK with too many starting ships.  Anyway, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone try attacking Karelia on G1, and definitely not Karelia and Egypt at the same time….

Again, you would “look like a genius” if you get good dice, and like a greedy novice if you don’t.   :-)

@ErwinRommel:

Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
      2inf and 5tnk

CM:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

attack zone 6 with sub

attack zone 9 two subs

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

attack EP inf,3tnk

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…

Since Allies will place thier bid in egypt since keeping egypt has many  benefits and the discussion has led to a Kare attack.

If you go for Karelia(which i HIGHLY disagree with)
Any thought to…

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk

CM

attack sz6 with a sub and a cruiser
attack East poland 2 inf 3tanks
attack Kare 4fighters 3 inf, art
attack Ukraine, 2inf 1 art
attack baltics 3inf 1 art 3 tanks
attack 9 one bomber
attack 12 with two subs,

problem with egypt is if you lose(chances are there is a bid there) the italian navy is going to be attacked and the axis will never see africa so you need one hit in 12 to solve that problem
you need to hit 9 to get a transport.

A bomber on a destroyer is not a sure thing.  It’s only a 57% chance that you sink both boats, and even if you do your bomber is exposed on Algeria.  One out of 7 times you will sink nothing and lose your bomber over Z9.

Rommell’s idea of attacking Karelia and Egypt at the same time was assuming no bid to Africa or Western front of Russia.  He did not say to attack Karelia and Egypt if there were bid units in Egypt.

@Gamerman01:

A bomber on a destroyer is not a sure thing.  It’s only a 57% chance that you sink both boats, and even if you do your bomber is exposed on Algeria.  One out of 7 times you will sink nothing and lose your bomber over Z9.

Rommell’s idea of attacking Karelia and Egypt at the same time was assuming no bid to Africa or Western front of Russia.  He did not say to attack Karelia and Egypt if there were bid units in Egypt.

Alright just throwing some ideas out, if your bomber goes 9 a tank moves libya to morroco and on italy’s turn inf too if britts didnt get it… IMO you spread too thin in general on a Kare opening and any variation will be left with flaws.
Karelia isn’t a good move IMO.

where do ya’ll stand on russia’s bid if they get 10… 2inf 1 art or two tanks

2inf 1 art pros, one more unit and in the end more defensive forces…cons less moving options

I have playd about 100 AA41 games online. As I said before allies need to bid egypt and russia if they would like to play long game… Or they will drop on the rankings very fast… (loosing round 1 70%chance, even if germany fail a attack axis would still have 50% of winning the game)

Kill russia first, dont mind UK, NEVER buy a carrier! UK have to buy a carrier anyway… Meet me in triplea, bid a destroyer, watch me steamroll you.

@ErwinRommel:

Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
     2inf and 5tnk

CM:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

attack zone 6 with sub

attack zone 9 two subs

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

attack EP inf,3tnk

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…

While I think this deployment has promise if you want to play the odds and make a big gamble early, it’s too risky for my taste.

1. SZ6 is only 50/50 with this deployment.  You need the cruiser to be sure, but that would lower your Kar odds.
2. SZ9 has decent odds of success but usa can counter the surviving subs USA1.
3. Yes Kar is 89% to ‘win’, but the odds are only 76% that G survives with 2 or more units remaining, and 63% to survive with 3 or more units remaining.  That means, 37% of the time G will lose either 3 inf art fig or 3 inf 2 fig.  Or more.  Not worth it imho, when you could have used that air to get expensive British naval units out of the game.

Since on average G will lose a fig to the aa gun anyway, Germany loses more ipcs in this exchange the majority of the time.  Now if you add in the +7 ipcs you get for taking Kar, then that puts the balance back in G’s favor.  However G has also sacrificed alot strategically…for example R can retake Kar R1 and then UK can destroy whatever you have left in Scandinavia on UK1.  And G will be down 1-2 fighters, with the bulk of the Brit navy still intact.

4. Egy is 25% to not work, and if G fails to kill that Egy fig they wont be able to ferry any more units to Africa.

IMHO this G1 has some statistical data in its favor but ultimately its a big gamble. If either Egy or Kar fail, then G will be vulnerable to KGF.  In my experience playing TripleA live, I saw G1s like this alot, and very often one side or the other ends up surrendering after G1.  If everything works Allies surrender, and if things go wrong Axis surrenders.

If Erwin’s larger point is that Allies are taking too big a risk if they don’t bid to Egy/Russia then I’m inclined to agree.  The fact that you can make these attacks and all of them outside sz6 are favorable is a good argument that you have to place some bid units in Egy and/or Russia.

I don’t have to worry so much about it because I’m usually going to put that bid unit in Egy, which reduces G’s odds to 40%, meaning that if they went with the above deployment they’d be risking losing the Italy fleet on UK1 too.

You didn’t read my reply #30?  I said a lot of the same things.

For example, Z6
Actually it’s not really “50/50”.  It’s 40-40-20.

@Zhukov44:

IMHO it’s a gambler’s G1.  If either Egy or Kar fail, then G will be vulnerable to KGF.  In my experience playing TripleA live, I saw G1s like this alot, and very often one side or the other ends up surrendering after G1.  If everything works Allies surrender, and if things go wrong Axis surrenders.

I believe it.  And most players don’t want their A&A game to be decided after G1.  The Allied player hasn’t even made a decision yet, other than placing a bid…  :roll:

@Gamerman01:

You didn’t read my reply #30?  I said a lot of the same things.

For example, Z6
Actually it’s not really “50/50”.  It’s 40-40-20.

Sorry, I missed all the discussion the original post started lol.  For some reason I thought page 2 was the end of the thread.

:-)
I’m enjoying your posts anyway

The point is that bid must be placed the same way every time.

It’s funny to see people coming and saying “there is only one truth”…

I agree that putting one inf in Egypt is very good for a 3ipc investment. But after that… I believe there are plenty of options. And to my mind putting the rest of your bid to Russia is very far away from being mandatory…

I can ensure you that putting a sub in sz35 is not a bad idea. That can really slow down Japan, and increase your options early on.

Of course, if axis roll perfectly on round 1 the game is almost decided… but this is the case whatever the bid is ; the point is… what are the odds of that happening ?

Honestly, I still dunno if there is a best strategy for the allies, and I too played a lot of games. I like playing KJF (or better said, I do not enjoy KGF), but nonetheless I already changed my plans to a KGF when I saw that my opponent was anticipating my moves in a way that would cost me the game. There are so many options, and so many early rolling… maybe the only viable strategy is to adapt to dices and opponent strategy :)

Terrific post, Yoshi -

and I completely agree (for what it’s worth)

You wont see that bid in the league though…

I just opened the nine first league thread with a bid at 9 or more (one can assume that you prefer to put the inf in Egypt before thinking on the sub) - this is at the current time the two first pages of the league forum, and two of them used this bid… I think one can see it.

(and I do not claim that the sub bid has to be ; just saying that’s an option, and not a bad one).

@ErwinRommel:

You wont see that bid in the league though…

I played alot of TripleA live and I was quite successful with inf egy ss 35 as my standard bid in dice games.  I’ve also used that bid in most of my ladder games and generally I’ve done well except against the best of the best.

I’m not so high on the ss 35 any more because opponents have learned how to react/counter it.  And that’s perfectly natural–placement bids ought to change up as people get used to countering them.  Then we get new placements as players try to innovate and create new strategies.

However if one’s opponent doesn’t know exactly how to deal with the ss in 35 then sometimes it’s better than bidding the 6 to Russia.  Particularly in dice games, that ss can have a decisive impact, because it usually forces Japan to take some additional risks J1, opening up the possibility of “cascade dice failure”.

All your previous post demonstrated was that Allies are taking a risk if they don’t bid to Egy.  Nothing was established about bidding to Russia.  Don’t get me wrong–bidding land units to Russia is a good bid, and very reasonable considering how many NOs are at stake in Eastern Europe.  It’s just not the only bid.