Lol, I hope my previous opponents will not read your post as this is exactly what happened to them :-D.
They 100% believed we went for Barbarossa and this is what the Uk did:
*1DD (from sz109) + CA (sz91) 1FTR (London) -> sz106, attacked 2GE subs there
*2FTR (London, Malta) + 1STR (London) 1TAC (CV) + CA + DD + CV -> Attacked Taranto
*1FTR (Gibraltar) -> attacked sz96.
UK placed a TRS in Canada, a FTR + MECH in South Africa and 2inf in London. 2 ‘Original’ FTR remained in London (including the French). All the rest really doesnt matter, GE took London with 19 survivors…. We even did not bomb anything in London. At all.
The number I mentioned is a calculation of what GE needs against what I know the US can come up with as a liberation force US3 without building anything else in Europe in later turns. The number of German units surviving may vary a bit according to what the US is doing (or can do, given that Japan is also doing evil deeds). If the US cannot mount a large liberation force, 13 German survivors may be enough. If the US can, 15 to 18 German survivors are needed to keep the USA out.
If Japan goes for India, the USA has an easy job. It needs 2 turns to form a good liberation taskforce, but it needs elements of the pacific fleet for it. With Japan bullying India this is NP. The trick is, USA must spend (near) 100% of its income from turn 3/4 and on in the Pacific again, untill able to defend Hawai/Sydney. The hard part for the USA may be when Japan goes for Hawai and Sydney right away, somewhat ignoring India. But can the Japanese take both Hawai and Sydney and hold it, when USA starts 100% Japan from turn 3/4 and on? Japanese income should be a lot lower than usual in this approach (with Hawai taken, that of the USA is also a bit lower) but India + China are having a good time and cannot be ignored for long (Japan must hold its VCs there as well).
Russia cannot take Berlin indeed (unless GE spent too much on ships!), but it can grow so strong that it can hold off GE + IT a very long time before it gets in danger (giving the USA, say, 10+ turns, a lot of time). If GE lost a lot of Luftwaffe in London, Russia may even never need to retreat anymore… It can also at the same time liberate China if need be.