Allied bomber bids

[DarthMaximus]

This came up the league forum.

Is it a good idea to bid a bomber for Bry?

I’d rather have the 4 units a 12 bid will get you then one bomber b/c I think leaving Germany alone prior to G1 is bad.  Its an agreesive move, but Germany can hit Sz 6, Sz 2, Sz 9, Sz 12 really settting the Allies back in the Atlantic.

It also appears the Allies are bidding too low based on recent league tourney results with the Axis racking up victories?

Where do you see bids going?  Strongest Allied bid Play?

I think the Allies must bid some ground units to Russia.  With nothing placed there, Germany can again be ultra aggressive on G1 with little downsside if a battle goes south for them.

Thoughts on Bids in general?

[Witt]

I do not know what the bid system is. Keep reading about it. Is it because no one wants to be the Allies. How does it work?

[gamerman01]

Thanks for starting the bid thread, Darth.  I will summarize what I’ve been observing and saying in other places where I don’t want to clog up the threads (League discussion thread, my ranking thread).

First, the stats.
I have a spreadsheet that I upload regularly in another thread, under “League” / “Gamermans rankings” that you can download and look at.
The third tab in the spreadsheet is a tabulation of game results in the 2011 tournament and the 2012 league.
I should add to that the 2012 tournament results as they come in.  I just thought of that, because I am passing on the 2012 tournament.

If you don’t download it, I’ll summarize the results for you here.
In the 2011 30 man tournament, the Axis have gone (with 1 game remaining) 14-6, which is a .700 win pct
In the 2012 league to the current date, the Axis have gone 32-15 which is a .681 win pct

And these games have all been bid, so the Allies have had extra units in ALL but ONE game that was played straight up with no bid (guess who won?).
The average bid in 46 Axis victories was around 8
The average bid in 21 Allied victories was around 8.5

Obvious conclusion: We are all bidding too low for the Allies to have a 50% chance of winning.

As a side note, I am the only player to ever grant my opponent a bid higher than 13.  I did it twice, at 19 and at 21.  I won the game at 21, and I will win the one at 19 (it is very close to done and the outcome has been obvious for several rounds now)
Darth has pointed out that my opponents didn’t pick the optimal use of their money (probably felt guilty), as 7 more infantry added to Russia and possibly North Africa (21 bid) would really make it tougher for the Axis (for example).

But that is a side note.  After reviewing 67 game results over the past year, year and a half, everyone is bidding around 6-11 and everyone is losing over and over again with the Allies.
To put it in perspective, a DOMINANT NBA or MLB team plays .700 ball.  Currently the best record in baseball is the Dodgers at .611.  In basketball, the Miami Heat (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Bosh and Company) went .696 and the OKC Thunder (another stacked team) went .712. 
So taking the Allies in 1941 even with a bid of 9, against the Axis has the same chance of winning as an average basketball team playing OKC or the Heat during the regular season.  A lot of people won’t even watch  :lol:

Folks, it is time to stop bidding below 12, for sure.  No one knows at what average level of bidding the Allies will achieve a .500 win pct, but it must be significantly higher than 9.

Anniversary has been out for almost 4 years now, so spare me the “people don’t know how to play the Allies yet” point, please.  :-)  Many of these games have been played by veterans of the game and of this website, from both sides of the table.  The Allies just plain need more help than 9 to have a 50/50 shot.

[DarthMaximus]

That’s some good info Gamer.

I think bid placement is a really important factor since not all bids are the same. � I really think it is a [i]must[/i] to bid at least two units to Russia. � The reason being without the threat of a counter to Ger on R1, Germany is free to be ultra aggressive. � It’s really a no brainer that Ger will win in Bst, Epl, and Ukr, but with some Russian units you can at least take adv of some weak dice or strengthen your stack and add some armor on your round 1 buy.

I’m not sure if 12 is the threshold or not. � I don’t know if I’d be willing to give the Allies 12 and then see 4 inf added to Russia, but I would give 12 if it was 2 inf Egy, 2 inf Ind.

I think placement is vital. �

At the moment I personally won’t go lower than 11. � I’ll take Allies with 11 b/c I can get an armor for Russia. � I’d love to get bids of 13-15, but still not sure if I’d just randomly grant 12. � But it might just be a matter of playing a few games giving 12 to get used to it, but it hasn’t come to that yet. � As is, I’ve been playing a lot of games as Axis recently.

[i][quote author=wittman link=topic=27499.msg968690#msg968690 date=1338748744]
I do not know what the bid system is. Keep reading about it. Is it because no one wants to be the Allies. How does it work?
[/quote][/i]

It’s a way to balance the game. � The general perception is the out of box set up favors the Axis. � Bids are used to try and level the playing field. � We use an auction style here:

Player A - I’ll play Allies with 15
Player B - I’ll take them with 13
Player A - I’ll go 11
Player B - 9
Player A - okay you can have them with 9.

Then the player will get to place up to 9 ipc worht of units on the board.

[b]Edit:[/b]
not sure why the quote didn’t work.

[Witt]

Thank you. Does not come up as I play with friends. Anniversary is usually won by Axis though.

[Battlingmaxo]

I’ve been playing the Allies almost exclusively for a year or so with bids in the 6-10 range. Against good players I find it is not enough even with average axis dice. Gamerman gave me 21 which I used for a russian ftr and infantry to egypt and india. The bid prolonged the inevitable for maybe 2 rounds as I was able to deadzone a little with russia as Japan had an average J1 and Germany pitched a near shutout for the first 3-4-rounds. I haven’t had as much experience with the z35 ss bid but after rd 1 it doesn’t seem to add much.

Probably the Russian front is the way to go since that is where the action is less 1 unit to egypt but with bids less than 10 I don’t see that doing much either. It may be better for a small bid to go total UK so they can keep their income up.  Pehaps we should do a series of games in the 15-18 range and see how that plays out.

[axis_roll]

I still don’t understand why the auction bid is for the weaker side in a progressively lower bid.

I know it won’t happen, but an axis bid (stronger position) bidding progressively more to the other side.  An example:

P1) I will play the axis and give the allies 8
P2) EIGHT!?? HA!  I can win with the axis giving the allies 10
P1) Well I think the axis are unstoppable, I will give the allies 11
P2) Axis will give 15
P2)  Ok, I will take the allies with 15

[axis_roll]

@DarthMaximus:

Is it a good idea to bid a bomber for Bry?

The game becomes a crap shoot if this is done/allowed: Japan can lose DD and two transports, approx 56% of the time.

In our own FTF games, we do not allow this R1 attack.

We also do not allow more than 3 russian bid units when the bid is over 11.  It is too strong for the allies when the russian front is won by the allies, in conjunction with a strong KGF by the Atlantic allies.

[gamerman01]

Very interesting.
A limit of 2 Russian units on the Western front would be reasonable as well.

Interesting idea to bid up as Axis
Would it be significantly different though?

Using your idea, if 1 player thinks Allies need 9-12 and the other thinks Allies need 13-16, the bidding will stop in the 9-12 range.
If the same pair bid down as we have been, the bidding would stop in the 13-16 range…

Or, if one player thinks the Allies need only 0-3 and the other thinks 15-18, then the bidding will stop in the 0-3 range if bidding up, but if bidding down will end in the 15-18 range…

So under your system of bidding up, games would have even lower bids on average, which I would think would mean even more Axis wins than we’ve seen…
Right?
It’s confusing, and it’s late.  I’m going to bed.

[gamerman01]

Every game of A&A is a crap shoot if the bid is fair and the players are even.  If the players are even and they don’t want the game ruined on R1, then neither would take a bomber to Bry and attack Z51 anyway, even without the restrictive rule.  I don’t see the need for further restrictive rules on the bid.  Of course, with your F2F if those house rules make you happy, that’s all that matters.
If a player thinks it’s too much for Russia to have 4 extra infantry on the western front, then that player should bid accordingly and take the Allies himself.

Seems self-regulating to me.

[DarthMaximus]

@axis_roll:

I still don’t understand why the auction bid is for the weaker side in a progressively lower bid.

I know it won’t happen, but an axis bid (stronger position) bidding progressively more to the other side.  An example:

P1) I will play the axis and give the allies 8
P2) EIGHT!?? HA!  I can win with the axis giving the allies 10
P1) Well I think the axis are unstoppable, I will give the allies 11
P2) Axis will give 15
P2)  Ok, I will take the allies with 15

It’s probably b/c people like playing the “weaker” side b/c it is more of challenge.  All of us here are strategy game players and it’s always more satisfying to win as the “underdog” so we can claim it was our superior strategy.  :-D
Its one of the reason the weaker side tends to get under bid.  “Oh I can win with 7!  I’ll take the Allies with 7.”

I know for myself I’d rather win a game as the Allies getting 10 then as the Axis giving up 10.  Afterall the Axis should win…

@axis_roll:

@DarthMaximus:

Is it a good idea to bid a bomber for Bry?

The game becomes a crap shoot if this is done/allowed: Japan can lose DD and two transports, approx 56% of the time.

In our own FTF games, we do not allow this R1 attack.

We also do not allow more than 3 russian bid units when the bid is over 11.  It is too strong for the allies when the russian front is won by the allies, in conjunction with a strong KGF by the Atlantic allies.

But I don’t know if that battle is all that relevant.  The bom placement may be overrated.  So what if you slow down Japan.  Sub bid of six kills 1 J trn and there is no risk of not hitting and you could still place 2 inf elsewhere.
Germany is the main early threat.  Assuming no Russian ground units bid.  Ger takes the 3 Russian territories on G1.  G2 have a shot at holding Kar.  Even if they only trade, they can still stack Bel on G3.  Russia now has to defend Mos.  G4 you move to Euk.  Now Cauc and Mos have to be defended.  G5 you take cauc.
Obviously this is a bit simplistic but I don’t think the loss of 2 trns and a J dd is that big of a deal if the Russian front is collapsing.

I’m assuming an aggressive G1.  Taking out Sz 2 and Sz 9.  If we are playing the odds game, the odds for these G1 attacks will go further in deciding the game then the 56% odds the Russian bom has.

–--------------

I’d much rather have 4 units on the Russian front, then the bom.

Obviously it can be fun to try different things or limit certain placements to get variety in your games, but I tend to agree with Gamerman, it will regulate itself.

@Battling:

I’ve been playing the Allies almost exclusively for a year or so with bids in the 6-10 range. Against good players I find it is not enough even with average axis dice. Gamerman gave me 21 which I used for a russian ftr and infantry to egypt and india. The bid prolonged the inevitable for maybe 2 rounds as I was able to deadzone a little with russia as Japan had an average J1 and Germany pitched a near shutout for the first 3-4-rounds. I haven’t had as much experience with the z35 ss bid but after rd 1 it doesn’t seem to add much.

Probably the Russian front is the way to go since that is where the action is less 1 unit to egypt but with bids less than 10 I don’t see that doing much either. It may be better for a small bid to go total UK so they can keep their income up.  Pehaps we should do a series of games in the 15-18 range and see how that plays out.

I’m thinking 15-18 would be too much.  I could be wrong, but with 15, I’m dropping 4-5 Russian units and trying to stack hold Epl R2.  Maybe buy UK ftrs on UK 1.  Take Epl on R2 and start landing the Allied ftrs.  At least that is what I’d try.

[CdnRanger]

One option I’ve never tried (Haven’t been able to bid 12 yet)

The bomber bid can have Russia take out the Sz62 trn (land bomber in Aus) and take out the unprotected Japanese transport in Sz38 on Russia 2.  If Japan decides to ignore the first turn capture of Sum, the bomber can sink the transport in Sz49 (Bor) if it is unprotected.

This leaves the Bomber without an attack on Russia turn 3, though.

This bid however won’t stop Germany and Italy from taking African IPCs (Egypt will be lost early) and puts a lot of pressure on Russia early.

[gamerman01]

Very true…
Much better than gambling on Z51 on R1.  Would definitely slow Japan down
But yeah, unless you get 15, Egypt and then most of Africa could go to the Germans early

Couldn’t you use the bomber to attack on R3 if you’re able to hold onto India?

[CdnRanger]

Good point -

Yup it could, as long as Japan hasn’t:
a) protected the transports(s) at Bor(2-3Inf)/Sz49 (because of the Russian bomber in Aus), and
b) taken Burma heavy(4+ ground units).  These two things would indicate a possible round 2 takeover of India.

Russia would have to send a couple of Inf (needed desperately at the front without a Russian ground unit bid) by Rus2 to India to protect it, and perhaps Uk lands the Egypt Fighter there (if it has survived the attack from Germany)

The India crush by Japan is nasty but it gives China an extra round or two of survival, as Japan needs to go light on Phi, and the 3 Inf in Fic that took Burma are needed to attack and hold India turn 2.

Cheers!

[U-505]

@DarthMaximus:

But I don’t know if that battle is all that relevant.  The bom placement may be overrated.  So what if you slow down Japan.  Sub bid of six kills 1 J trn and there is no risk of not hitting and you could still place 2 inf elsewhere.
Germany is the main early threat.  Assuming no Russian ground units bid.  Ger takes the 3 Russian territories on G1.  G2 have a shot at holding Kar.  Even if they only trade, they can still stack Bel on G3.  Russia now has to defend Mos.  G4 you move to Euk.  Now Cauc and Mos have to be defended.  G5 you take cauc.
Obviously this is a bit simplistic but I don’t think the loss of 2 trns and a J dd is that big of a deal if the Russian front is collapsing.

I don’t know Darth. Slowing Japan’s expansion to a crawl and allowing Russia to focus entirely on Germany for the first 5 rounds or so goes a long way.

I’m assuming an aggressive G1.  Taking out Sz 2 and Sz 9.  If we are playing the odds game, the odds for these G1 attacks will go further in deciding the game then the 56% odds the Russian bom has.

I don’t know about that either. taking out 2 TP’s and a DD before Japan even gets a chance to use them is pretty crippling. Even sinking just the sz62 TP limits japan a bit.

I’d much rather have 4 units on the Russian front, then the bom.

That’s a matter of personal preference, though. The bomber bid gives Russia multiple options while the infantry bid only has 1 option(defending against Germany). The bomber is essentially an opportunistic unit. It can provide support for Allied interdiction of Japan’s navy as well as supporting it’s ground troops in the area if you see an opening to be aggressive on the ground. And the bomber will start saving Russia units in trades against Germany once it returns from the Pacific.

@CdnRanger:

Russia would have to send a couple of Inf (needed desperately at the front without a Russian ground unit bid) by Rus2 to India to protect it, and perhaps Uk lands the Egypt Fighter there (if it has survived the attack from Germany)

The US can also provide air support to India on US2 if they landed aircraft in Australia on US1.

The India crush by Japan is nasty but it gives China an extra round or two of survival, as Japan needs to go light on Phi, and the 3 Inf in Fic that took Burma are needed to attack and hold India turn 2.

The India crush also draws away a lot of Japan’s navy which the US and Russia can sometimes exploit in the North(threatening sz62 with air and navy, Russian ground attacks into China from Bury, etc)