It looks like Bunnies P Wrath has provided an interlude between my two posts. Thank you for that, Bunnies. (I think.)
Part 2 will explore the consequences of the Axis victory scenario I outlined earlier. In the postwar era, the world’s two strongest powers would have been Germany and the United States. The Soviet Union and Japan would also have been strong, and China could have become strong after it had gotten its civil war sorted out. The Nationalists would likely have won the Chinese civil war; resulting in a China run much like Taiwan has been run.
There were only two sides to the Cold War, which tended to simplify the diplomatic situation a bit. In the Axis victory scenario there would be multiple sides: Germany, the U.S., the Soviet Union, and Japan. Possibly a fifth and sixth side as well. It’s impossible to predict how such a complex diplomatic situation might have played out. Overall, the diplomatic situation might have become more like it had been in the 1800s–back when things were less black and white, and when there tended to be multiple parties pulling in multiple different directions.
Germany would likely have developed nuclear weapons on its own, and the Soviet Union would of course have stolen the required technology from the United States. Due to its advanced rocketry program, Germany would have been the first to develop ICBMs, and the first to put a man on the Moon. It’s worth noting that between the '60s and the present, the inflation-adjusted cost of putting a ton of cargo into orbit has not changed. It’s worth wondering whether a victorious Germany would have done the research and development work necessary to cause a decrease in that cost. Had such an effort been successfully undertaken, a number of space-based opportunities which are currently impractical would have become possible.
Another effect of an Axis victory is that the British food blockade would have ended, thereby allowing Germany to feed all the people within its borders. Some people–such as Poles–would have been relocated eastward; with their lands resettled by Germans. The percentage of Europe inhabited by Germans would have slowly increased. While the Soviet Union would have continued engaging in mass murder, the scope of that murder would have been contained within a much smaller geographic area. Neither Operation Keelhaul nor the Morgenthau Plan would have taken place; thereby sparing millions of lives.
Immigration patterns would have been different. The Nazi government would not have allowed large-scale immigration of non-whites into European territory under its control. It would likely have pressured its European neighbors to adopt similar immigration policies. This would have prevented the slow, but large-scale demographic changes currently underway in Europe.
An Axis victory would have had another effect on the gene pool as well. The Nazis were concerned about the fact that less intelligent people were having more children than their more intelligent counterparts. They were unable to do much to correct that problem, in large part because they were in power for a relatively short time, and were distracted by other, more pressing matters. Had they been given more time, they would likely have found a way to encourage intelligent people to have more children; thereby resulting in a gradually improving gene pool. After two or three generations of this slow, steady, upward genetic pressure, there would have been a noticeable improvement in Europeans’ levels of intelligence. On the other hand, a certain percentage of those highly intelligent people would have moved to the United States; especially if they found themselves in disagreement with Nazi ideology.
That ideology would likely have mellowed over time. The Nazis who joined Hitler’s party during its early, beer hall days tended to be much more radical than those who joined a decade later. After Hitler gained power, a number of people pretended to be more committed to Nazism than they really were, in order to avoid penalties and gain rewards. As Hitler’s early followers died of old age and were replaced by those who became Nazis after '33, Germany’s commitment to Nazism would have become less intense. (A similar process occurred in the Soviet Union, as Lenin’s followers died of old age and were replaced.)