it depends on how many fighters leave UK round 1. Also you can’t control 2 subs losing to 1 destroyer or losing a fighter in 111.
If you do 109 instead of 110 generally uk does not fly any air out of uk, skips 97 and merges his fleet off gibraltar R1 then it merges with the UK pac stuff the next turn off of egypt and if you buy more transports he can send 2 more air units into uk from that carrier.
On the other hand sinking 110 and letting uk run that destroyer transport to pick up canada, forces uk to sink 97. so he has to fly 1 bomber and 1 fighter out, has to use the gibraltar fighter and cruiser for the dd transport off malta. Leaving so uk keeps 2 fighters home (3 actually since french fighter just sits there).
Typically you have 50-80% odds (depending on how many you drop on scotland, 52% if no scotland drop 58% with 2 inf drop on scotland 70 to 80% if you drop 6 land units, but LL games this gets strafed so you kill 2 inf and lose 4). It really depends if germany lost any fighters, did the 2 subs beat the destroyer (even in low luck games the dd sometimes defends 106), depends if you block the shipment from canada or not, I am going to assume you are doing 110 and not skipping it.
Sometimes uk does not get a canada shipment because his destroyer bomber failed to kill 2 subs or because you have fleet to block it. So the odds fluctuate on various dice rolls and germany losing air or not. I don’t usually see 109 over 110, because that simplifies what UK is doing. also depends if your BB makes it out of the first round or not.
You are still the favorite to take UK over in any situation from slight 52% favorite to huge favorite 80% range, assuming uk does not skip over the medit battles.
5 bombers drop your odds down to 18-36% range (3-5 bombers takes hits so that other units can continue to roll every round, it extends that battle, which is why it has a dramatic effect on the outcome, cannon fodder is especially important in big battles)… sooo yeah.
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In other words your odds fluctuate depending on dice and what UK does, but you will know come germany 2 if you can take it or not. In a typical game you can, but don’t expect to win with all your tanks and air remaining in tact.