@rulebook_reviewer https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/31377/axis-victories-what-s-the-magic-trick
It’s already been discussed.
Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer)
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@crockett36 I’ve thought about this thread a lot in the last two months. I had never really conceived of the notion of the difference between 99.99 and 99.999. Still blows my mind. Life doesn’t seem to present many circumstances that are that sure. And of course most action underdog movies are about how that goes badly.
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@AndrewAAGamer I see from one of your early articles that you say to never buy a cruiser and rarely buy a battleship. However, for the same price as the battleship you can have a cruiser and a destroyer, which gives a 16% of getting two hits instead of one from the battleship in the first round of combat (assuming the battleship would hit) and a 67% chance of getting at least one hit in that same round (which is marginally better than the chance of getting a hit with just a battleship).
Now you might add that the battleship can be repaired, to which I would counter that two unit build can be split if necessary to provide blockers or handle two needed tasks and therefore I think the benefit of that defensive hit is a wash.
Thoughts?
Marsh
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The choice usually is between a battleship or two destroyers or three subs. The BB can be repaired, while the latter options have numerous advantages.
In large fleet battles, battleships are slightly more advantageous as they don’t have their attack ability decreased after taking a single hit. The benefit is so minimal that I have never personally purchased one in a game.
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@arthur-bomber-harris I’m not sure I agree that battleships are slightly more advantageous, but skipping that. Part of Andrew’s position is that it’s better to get your hits in early rather than wait til later. If that’s true on offense, it should also be true on defence.
Marsh
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The issue here is you are trying to match the $20 for one battleship which gives us odd comparisons. For a real comparison look at multiples of each where the dollars match.
a) (5) Destroyer (5 HP, 10 OFP, 10 DFP) vs (2) Battleship (4 HP, 8 OFP, 8 DFP)
Destroyer versus Battleship = 59.7% DD win, 35.2% BB win, 5.1% both die.b) (3) Destroyer (3 HP, 6 OFP, 6 DFP) vs 2 Cruiser (2 HP, 6 OFP, 6 DFP)
Destroyer versus Cruiser = 66% DD win, 27.3% CA win, 6.7% both die.So, in a straight up battle the destroyers win hands down. If you need defense the destroyers are great. If your fleet is already bigger than subs are even better on offense than above. Subs and destroyers are better than cruisers and battleships.
I have bought battleships when I only have limited space in the factory slot(s) and needed the biggest defense available due to an enemy fleet threatening me. Such as Japan off FIC or the US off Korea. I may have bought a cruiser once in my lifetime in the same scenario when I only had enough space and money for the cruiser and could not get the battleship or multiple destroyers or a carrier and two fighters.
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@marshmallowofwar if you get into a battle with a high probability of success, the battleships will give you a higher expected TUV swing. Check it out in a typical scenario. It isn’t a huge benefit, ~5 TUV per battleship, and comes with numerous disadvantages
I really do like having 20 subs compared to 15 destroyers or 6 battleships as they are all roughly comparable on defense but the subs are vastly superior on offense.
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@andrewaagamer That’s awesome, but it’s not really an answer to the question.
5 battleships (100 IPCs) attacking 5 destroyers and 5 cruisers (100 IPCs) wins about 46% of the time according to the Triple A calculation (over 10000 iterations). The defender wins 50% of the time and the other 4% is a draw.
5 destroyers and 5 cruisers attacking 5 battleships wins 50% of the time. The battleships win 46% of the time, and the other 4% is a draw.
If I increase those numbers to 15 stacks, the win ratio for the mixed units goes up to 52%.
To me, those numbers back up my position that it’s better to have two units than one – the two unit combo has a slight edge. Is my math off somewhere?
Marsh
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Well sure a combo of cruisers and destroyers is better than only battleships by a tiny margin; because of the destroyers involved. That does not change the fact that destroyers by themselves are better than cruisers and battleships.
Not sure what your question is?
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@andrewaagamer My question was why build a battleship (one unit) when for the same price you can have two units that might get two hits in defense (or offense for that matter) and gives the same number of defensive hits?
It’s true that the battleship shoots better on the second round of combat, but getting that extra hit potentially on the first round of combat weakens the
attackeropponent’s second round of combat.It seems to me that any time you would build a battleship you’re better off building a destroyer and a cruiser instead unless you are limited to building only a single unit…
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So I am saying not to build battleships but in extreme circumstances and cruisers in even more extreme circumstances. Build carriers, planes, destroyers and subs instead.
But if your question is if I have only two choices a) a battleship or b) a destroyer and a cruiser than of those two choices, yes the destroyer and cruiser is a better build assuming you have the space to build two units instead of one.
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@andrewaagamer said in Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer):
But if your question is if I have only two choices a) a battleship or b) a destroyer and a cruiser than of those two choices, yes the destroyer and cruiser is a better build assuming you have the space to build two units instead of one.
So going back to your original question is ONE battleship better than ONE cruiser plus ONE destroyer. I am thinking IF the battleship might survive it is the better unit to buy. Here are the results of the battle:
CA and DD win = 11% = $20 x 11% = $2.2
CA wins = 31% = $12 x 31 = $3.7
BB wins = 39% = $20 x 39% = $7.8
All die = 19% = $0
CA+DD = $5.9
BB = $7.8So if there is a chance after the battle is over that the battleship can escape and heal itself buying the battleship is the better economic buy assuming the slightly less chance of winning overall, 42% vs 39%, does not affect the outcome of a larger fleet battle or defending the sea zone.
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@andrewaagamer The TUV benefit of the BB becomes even larger when the odds of winning is greater. If you know that eventually you will be able to force a fleet battle in the Pacific, and will be on the winning side because USA is doing either a KGF or KJF strategy, purchasing an additional BB or two could be wise.
If you aren’t absolutely convinced you will have an epic Naval battle with victory firmly on your side, stick with subs and destroyers.
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@arthur-bomber-harris said in Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer):
If you aren’t absolutely convinced you will have an epic Naval battle with victory firmly on your side, stick with subs and destroyers.
Hear that!
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@andrewaagamer said in Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer):
@andrewaagamer said in Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer):
But if your question is if I have only two choices a) a battleship or b) a destroyer and a cruiser than of those two choices, yes the destroyer and cruiser is a better build assuming you have the space to build two units instead of one.
So going back to your original question is ONE battleship better than ONE cruiser plus ONE destroyer. I am thinking IF the battleship might survive it is the better unit to buy. Here are the results of the battle:
CA and DD win = 11% = $20 x 11% = $2.2
CA wins = 31% = $12 x 31 = $3.7
BB wins = 39% = $20 x 39% = $7.8
All die = 19% = $0
CA+DD = $5.9
BB = $7.8So if there is a chance after the battle is over that the battleship can escape and heal itself buying the battleship is the better economic buy assuming the slightly less chance of winning overall, 42% vs 39%, does not affect the outcome of a larger fleet battle or defending the sea zone.
Yep. If BB survives
DD + CA C20 A5 1.50
BB C20 A4 .63Funny how this is based on ABH reply in fleets
SS+DD C14 A4 FS 2.08
BB C20 A4 .63That’s a better buy to if sub gets at least 1 FS
Odds are BB wins 56% time. InterestingBut of course BB survives it gets repaired next turn. Free well don’t like and BB doesn’t go down to a AD@3 when damaged but this is For G40 so we move on.
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I was considering the Atlantic fleet in a kGF situation and thinking that a 1-3-3-3-3-3-3-3 fleet might be durable and effective at pillaging the coasts. 1 battleship, 3 cruisers-3 carriers with three fighters-3 divers-three artillery-three infantry. park that in 110 and shazaam! keep a supply chain coming and you’ve got a meat grinder that halts the Germans in their tracks.
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@crockett36 That depends on much Axis air force remains, how much Axis navy remains that can hit sea zone 110, and whether or not Normandy and Holland are available as landing spaces for those planes (with sufficient ground forces to protect them from an Allied invasion).
Also, three loaded transports won’t do. That might be enough to hold off a counterattack from Finland after you take Norway, but it’s certainly not enough to hold Normandy if Germany has been foolish (or unlucky) enough to have captured it before Russia is in the bag and is forced to defend it.
Marsh
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@marshmallowofwar It would depend on your goals for assaulting Normandy. If your goal wasn’t to capture but to kill ground units, the fleet composition is deadly. 1st round casualties with low luck: 3 at 3 bombardment, 3 figs at 3, 3 divers at 4, 6 at 2=42/6=7 hits. 27 ipcs Germans, 21 ipcs US. Retreat and do it again for cheap.
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@crockett36 Uh, sure.
Color me skeptical. Besides, Normandy is a sucker’s play until after Russia has fallen.
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@crockett36 Ok, I figured out why I was skeptical.
You’ve outlined your entire Atlantic naval force as what you posted and you’re assuming you’ve got three more loaded transports coming every turn to bleed the Axis in Normandy.
If your entire fleet is sitting in 110, how are those loaded transports making it to sea zone 110 each turn? If they’re going to Gibraltar, they can be reached by Italian subs and by German strategic bombers. If they’re parking mid-Atlantic, I can reach them with France-based strategic bombers.
If your entire fleet is not sitting in 110, I’m either going to kill your sea zone 110 fleet (thus stopping the bleeding and cutting off your reinforcements) before I worry about whatever you have in Normandy. And if I don’t have the planes and subs to do it this turn, you can bet I’ll have them next turn!
Marsh
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@marshmallowofwar Do you only play Germany? What do you do to open up a second front against the evil Huns? I just thought that I stumbled onto a reason for buying cruisers. There’s no reason the brits couldn’t have a three plane scramble there and drop an CV into the fray.
We all know the prowess of the Axis. There is zero amount of creativity in thinking of new ways for the imbalanced Axis forces to win the OOB game. There is only glory to be had in doing the difficult or attempting the impossible.
As I said, I thought of a way to effectively use cruisers. It tickled my fancy. BTW, taking down the Luftwaffe by losing a fleet isn’t a total loss. It just needs to be the right math at the right moment.
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