A ton of input was given. THANK YOU ALL!!! This is exactly what I was hoping for when I started this project and THANK YOU TRULPEN! for trying to coordinate so much varied information. I have the easy part here it seems. Kind of like a real game where the Allies do not always agree on strategy and it makes it hard for them to coordinate together.
Overall my main point of disagreement is going to be how the Med was handled. Job #1 for UK, right after protecting London, is toasting Italy. That was not done and I am betting it is going to come back and haunt the Allies due to Italy having too much money for too long.
If it were me…
So, I am the Allies and I know the order of my priorities. 1) Protect London, 2) Toast Italy, 3) Control the Middle East, 4) Assist Russia in defense of Moscow by both making landings on the Atlantic Wall and providing defensive units in Russia itself.
To accomplish the Protection of London I need to kill the German fleet in SZ110. Without a fleet, the Germans cannot do Sealion which allows me to be aggressive versus defensive. Therefore, any UK1 response is going to include destroying that SZ111 fleet. It would also be great to kill the two German subs in SZ 106 and/or the cruiser and sub in SZ112. But first let’s move on to item #2 Toasting the Italians.
Knocking out the Italian fleets in SZ97 and SZ96 is far easier with the sub Bid in SZ98. By bringing the house to SZ97 the Axis would not, or should not, scramble, which means the Med is already owned by the Allies. So, if I kill both SZ111 and SZ97 fleets I am well on my way to accomplishing my goals. It is too early to worry about other goals at the moment. Now I cannot do SZ111, SZ97 and SZ96 attacks and hit Tobruk or any other fleets; I just do not have enough firepower.
Is that bad? If I ignore the 2 German subs in SZ106 those subs cannot do much harm. At best UK is going to lose $3 in income due to convoy disruption. The US could place a carrier and destroyer in SZ101 as part of their build with fighter protection on land and sea. Since it is unlikely the US is going to move to the Carolines or Queensland in strength till US 4 anyway those ships in SZ101 can still make it to Hawaii by US 3 to be part of the US Armada fighting for the Pacific. This US fleet is too big for the Germans to attack and they cannot escape so at least one sub will die by the US next Turn so the UK only needs one destroyer left over to kill the other one. OK – I can ignore SZ106.
If I ignore SZ112 then the German cruiser will be a blocker later and the German sub will take away Russia’s NO. I do not like that but neither are as important as hosing Italy. Even with the cruiser it would take a major build to go for Sealion so while I would love to kill SZ112 with the 3 fighters scramble I just can’t hit it and hit SZ97 too.
Not killing Tobruk always makes it a little difficult in North Africa however without the Italian fleet those Tobruk units are far less threatening. So, I can ignore them. Too many targets and not enough units to hit them all.
Which will work for us on the German 2 Turn.
Instead of saving the SZ111 fleet I am going to use it. Attack SZ110 with the battleship, cruiser, destroyer from SZ111, destroyer from SZ109, the sub already in SZ110 and 2 fighters from UK. 100% battle and on average only loss is BB hit.
Taranto, SZ97, is 2 fighters from Scotland, bomber from UK, Malta fighter and everything from SZ98 (SS, DD, CA, CV, Tactical). Without a scramble, this is a 100% battle with average loss of 1 unit which is the tactical or bomber if you prefer. Two lucky hits are the tactical and bomber for sure. With a scramble the UK losses are 3.5 units which means the carrier and two fighters from Scotland and possibly the sub too. With a scramble, the Italian fleet still dies and the Germans just lost a fighter and the Italians are severely weakened with the loss of two fighters so we accomplished our goal of hosing Italy either way.
SZ96 is SS and CA from SZ91 plus the Gibraltar fighter. 97.7% battle and on average no losses though may lose the sub. I want this to be a for sure battle because losing this battle is a disaster for the Allies. Even that 0.3% scares me.
So, at the end of UK1 we have a fleet in SZ110 plus a fleet in SZ97. What is the Axis response?
As much as Italy wants to hit SZ97 they really cannot. Italian SS, DD, CA, 2 Ftr and Bmb vs UK SS, DD, CA, CV, 2 Ftr is a 34% battle which means the entire Italian air and navy is dead on Italy 1. Ouch. Better to kill the UK survivors in SZ96 and the French fleet in SZ93. This means Italy is going to be heavily convoy disrupted on Turn 1 and will be lucky to collect more than $5.
When G2 comes the Germans face a dilemma. Do I destroy the SZ110 fleet or the SZ97 fleet? They cannot do both. An all-out attack on SZ97 is going to cost on average 2.5 planes. An all-out attack on SZ 110 is also going to cost 2.5 planes plus the sub and cruiser which removes the German fleet from the game. Either the UK has a strong fleet off UK that rules the seas or Italy is out of the game forever. Both not good scenarios for the Axis.
In other areas, I like stacking Yunnan. I approve of taking Persia. I would have ignored Iraq and instead gone for Ethiopia. At best Russia cannot get to Iraq till R3 so why hit Iraq on UK1 when you could just as easily hit on it UK2? Taking out Ethiopia removes one of the two Italian ground forces in Africa and is a big step to controlling Africa which is Priority #2.
As for strafing FIC that is a risky attack and depends on if you feel you are the weaker Player. 96% chance to win, overall TUV of -3.
- 42% chance loss of fighter
- 37% no loss
- 17% loss of 2 planes
- 2% loss
- 2% draw
The loss of one fighter is an even trade for the 2 Jap infantry. Therefore, the real comparison is the 37% of the time no losses occur for UK versus the 21% of the time it is a bad trade for the UK. As the stronger Player, I would not make that attack.