Pearl Harbour Attack

[taamvan]

Thinking about this last night, you do propose to take out 2 of his 3 transports, which makes it more difficult to stack hawaii.

[Afrikakorps]

Another important observation is that USA only has its first turn to counter this sneak attack on Hawaii J3, 52 points in total. I hope ofcourse that he spends this on ships.

It can only work when the USA thinks it has to rebuild its fleet after J1 and because of its close distance, can attack or reinforce Hawaii in a single turn, which you negate by sacrificial blockers. The longer you wait the more difficult it is to pull it off I guess. Nevertheless it is something you can always keep in mind when the situation occurs you can do this trick. You need 1 ship at Japan and 2 ships at Caroline Islands to block Hawaii.

Even in later stages of the game, when you control India or Sydney, you can steal victory from an unaware USA player.

[taamvan]

I do see what you are saying–the block might work if all of these can be coordinated. Where it may fall apart is that all the things we will need to assault hawaii (2 CV, 1DD and 3 MORE block ships) will prevent the india take from happening on schedule. If both VCs can’t be taken, the entire strategy collapses because now the USA can take Hawaii back in due time–both targets have to be taken on the same turn, which requires more ships than Japan starts with.

I like your thinking and appreciate your idea; it reminds me of Dave’s Operation Hollywood/Operation Everything plans where Japan and Germany stack on the USA, an all out kill america first. This plan (either to take iceland and land with all of germany’s air on japan’s canadian territory, or to take the panama canal with german/italy and let japan into the atlantic) had some really creative goals, but we never suceesfully deployed either plan, because the intricate dance of blockers and buys became too unpredictable, and eventually some shortfall in the gambit was revealed as the strain of accomplishing all of the pre-planned objectives caused something to be omitted or missed. At that point (turn 4), there were too many uncertainties about what the other players might do, and too many contingencies–but your plan avoids getting that far into the game.

[Argothair]

@Afrikakorps It might be a helpful exercise for you to try to specify exactly which units you think will be attacking India on J3 and where those units were on J2 and J1. I think Japan starts with 19 planes. If you’re sending 4 of them to attack Hawaii, and you’re lucky enough to take only 1 air casualty in all of your opening moves, and you’re leaving 3 planes near Tokyo to protect your northern fleet, that leaves you at most 11 planes for attacking India. Similarly, if you’re sending 4 transports east to take Hawaii, that leaves you at most 6 transports (= 12 land units) for attacking India. So you’re looking at an attack, at best, with 23 Japanese attackers – but surely you will take some land casualties at some point along your journey in attacking the Philippines, Kwangtung, and Shan State, so in reality you will have somewhat fewer units.

You could also try to write out which British units you think will be defending in India on J3. Conservatively, it seems like those units would include at least the starting 6 inf, 1 art, 3 AAA, 2 ftr, 1 tac that start on India, plus the 5 inf that India can build on UK1, plus another 3 inf (minimum) that India can build on UK2. That means the UK is defending with at least 14 inf, 1 art, 3 AAA, 2 ftr, 1 tac. In reality, they will probably have a couple more units than that, because if they see your attack coming then they can reinforce from Burma, ANZAC, Russia, the Med, etc., but even with total surprise, you have to expect to be fighting against 21 British defenders.

You also have to take and hold India – if the Allies can re-take India on UK3 or R4 using forces from the Mediterranean or Persia, then your gambit fails.

If you’re going to base your entire strategy around a very specific, unusual, scripted attack, it helps to know what the odds of that attack are! I would bet that if you write out the scenario and run in through a battle calculator, and you’re honest with yourself about which units are going to be available to attack India on J3, then the battle calculator will show less than a 10% chance for Japan to hold India with more than 3 land units, even if you sacrifice every plane you own in the region.

In general I think you are investing way too much effort into gleefully imagining how you will trick and manipulate your opponents, and not nearly enough effort into crunching the numbers to find a strategy that has a high probability of succeeding even when your opponents are aware of your plans. You’re not wrong that some weaker US players will panic after a strong Pearl Harbor attack and build a new US Pacific fleet that will be too slow to save Hawaii, and you’re not wrong that some weaker UK players will stubbornly try to defend Malaya while ignoring Japan’s staging ground in Shan State – but if the US player happens to realize that he can build fighters to reinforce Hawaii and win the game, or if the UK player happens to realize that an attack on the Shan State will save India and win the game, or if the Russian player happens to realize that an R2 attack on Korea will destroy the only possible source of the infantry you need to take India, then your whole strategy falls apart. The strategy you’re proposing is a little like the Fool’s Mate in chess – sure, if it works, then you quickly win the game, but once people know about it, it’s very easy for them to defend against it and crush you in the process.

[taamvan]

Well said Argo, that’s what a “gambit” or “stratagem” is— we will be taking a large risk in order to reap large gains. However, a more flexible, reactive and conservative strategy outlines only general goals, assumes the game will take the full 12-15 turns, and hopes that by refusing to take big risks that solid play will prevail and your opponent will hopefully give up before being constricted to death.

Dave has a bit different philosophy; “go bold”. He focuses his air and naval attacks in a “schwerpunkt” fashion–maximum force applied at the critical place. I think that’s why we make a good team, I take the more general and conservative approach, and start the game with few assumptions or plans.

[CWO Marc]

@taamvan said in Pearl Harbour Attack:

Well said Argo, that’s what a “gambit” or “stratagem” is— we will be taking a large risk in order to reap large gains. However, a more flexible, reactive and conservative strategy outlines only general goals, assumes the game will take the full 12-15 turns, and hopes that by refusing to take big risks that solid play will prevail and your opponent will hopefully give up before being constricted to death.

Dave has a bit different philosophy; “go bold”. He focuses his air and naval attacks in a “schwerpunkt” fashion–maximum force applied at the critical place. I think that’s why we make a good team, I take the more general and conservative approach, and start the game with few assumptions or plans.

Here’s an equivalent, from the world of chess, of these two contrasting philosophies:

Tigran Vartanovich Petrosian was a Soviet Armenian Grandmaster, and World Chess Champion from 1963 to 1969. He was nicknamed “Iron Tigran” due to his almost impenetrable defensive playing style, which emphasised safety above all else. […] Petrosian was a conservative, cautious, and highly defensive chess player who was strongly influenced by Aron Nimzowitsch’s idea of prophylaxis. He made more effort to prevent his opponent’s offensive capabilities than he did to make use of his own. He very rarely went on the offensive unless he felt his position was completely secure. He usually won by playing consistently until his aggressive opponent made a mistake, securing the win by capitalizing upon this mistake without revealing any weaknesses of his own. This style of play often led to draws, especially against other players who preferred to counterattack. Nonetheless, his patience and mastery of defence made him extremely difficult to beat. He was undefeated at the 1952 and 1955 Interzonals, and in 1962 he did not lose a single tournament game. Petrosian’s consistent ability to avoid defeat earned him the nickname “Iron Tigran”. He was considered to be the hardest player to beat in the history of chess by the authors of a 2004 book.

Jorgen Bent Larsen was a Danish chess grandmaster and author. Known for his imaginative and unorthodox style of play, he was the first Western player to pose a serious challenge to the Soviet Union’s dominance in chess. He is considered to be the strongest player born in Denmark and the strongest from Scandinavia until the emergence of Magnus Carlsen. […] Larsen was known as a deep thinking and highly imaginative player, more willing to try unorthodox ideas and to take more risks than most of his peers. This aspect of his play could even manifest itself in his choice of openings. “He is a firm believer in the value of surprise. Consequently, he often resorts to dubious variations in various openings. He also likes to complicate positions even though it may involve considerable risk. He has a great deal of confidence in his game and fears no one. His unique style has proven extremely effective against relatively weak opponents but has not been too successful against top-notchers.”

[taamvan]

Love it. While chess isn’t my personal favorite, it is a model for wargaming. Its amazing that with such a limited set of starting options and pieces, that the game has a tremendous following and has, in all its variants, for centuries.

Some people believe that the sides in chess are equal. This is a misconception; the players start with symmetrical forces, but the White player has + one more unit of initiative, and the Black player has + one more piece of information (what White did). This is a good analogy to our favorite game, and is the starting point for all “asymmetrical” wargames, where the players share common units types and resources, but are each different and unique.

[CWO Marc]

@taamvan said in Pearl Harbour Attack:

Love it. While chess isn’t my personal favorite, it is a model for wargaming. Its amazing that with such a limited set of starting options and pieces, that the game has a tremendous following and has, in all its variants, for centuries.

Some people believe that the sides in chess are equal. This is a misconception; the players start with symmetrical forces, but the White player has + one more unit of initiative, and the Black player has + one more piece of information (what White did). This is a good analogy to our favorite game, and is the starting point for all “asymmetrical” wargames, where the players share common units types and resources, but are each different and unique.

I once heard about a Russian chess grandmaster (I forget who, so I’ll call him So-and-So) who was asked whether he prefers to play the white or black pieces. He answered: “It makes no difference to me. When I play white, I win because I play first. When I play black, I win because I am So-and-So.”

[Afrikakorps]

Thanks again for another round of excellent and interesting feedback!

As you might have figured so far, I am more like Jorgen Bent Larsen, preferring onorthodox strategies based on surprise and deception. Ofcourse it really helps that my group only plays a game twice a year and now after two years I am Axis again (while both allies will play their nations for the first time in 2 again). I am also the only one that studies this forum inside out as his hobby. This makes my playstyle ofcourse more suitable than hardened TripleA veterans. There is therefore reason to believe they might act as I expect them to act. I do really not mind if I win with a Fool’s Mate the first time I use it, actually I would love it!

Nevertheless Argothair you are absolutely right it is important to be realistic, run battles with a battle calculator in advance and have a detailed plan in how I expect to have a certain amount of units somewhere (India battle). I have improved all my past strategies by sharing it on these forums as you pointed out the wrong assumptions and weak parts. So thats what I will do again.

Japan 1

J1 purchase:
• 3 Transport

Combat move:
SZ 26:
• 1 submarine (SZ 6)
• 2 destroyers (SZ 6)
• 2 fighters (SZ 6)
• 2 tactical bombers (SZ 6)

SZ 35:
• 1 Submarine (SZ 19)
• 1 Destroyer (SZ 19)
• 1 Cruiser (SZ 6)
• 1 Battleship (SZ 19)
• 2 Transports (1 Tank, 1 Artillery, 2 Infantry) – Japan, Okinawa

SZ 37:
• 1 Cruiser (SZ 20)
• 1 Bomber (Japan)
• 1 Fighter (Formosa)

SZ: 43 :
• 1 Transport (1 Artillery, 1 Infantry) (SZ 20)

Philippines
• 1 Tactical Bomber (SZ 35)
• 1 Fighter (SZ 35)
• 1 Tank (Japan)
• 1 Artillery (Japan)
• 2 Infantry (Japan)

Borneo
• 1 Infantry (Kiangsi)

Shan State
• 2 Infantry (Siam)

French Indo China
• 1 Infantry (Kwangsi)

Yunnan
• 1 Bomber (Japan)
• 1 Tactical Bomber (Kiangsu)
• 1 Fighter (Kiangsu)
• 1 Artillery (Kwangsi)
• 2 Infantry (Kwangsi)

Kwantung
• 2 Infantry (Kiangsi)
• 2 Tactical Bombers (Japan)
• 2 Fighters (Japan + Okinawa)

Hunnan
• 1 Infantry (Kiangsi)
• 2 Tactical Bombers (Manchuria)
• 2 Fighters (Manchuria)

Chahar
• 1 Infantry (Jehol)

Anhwe
• 1 Mechanized Infantry (Manchuria)
• 7 Infantry (Kiangsu, Shantung, Jehol)
• 3 Artillery (Kiangsu, Shantung, Jehol)

Noncombat move:
SZ42
• 1 Destroyer (from SZ33)

SZ35
• 1 Aircraft Carrier (from SZ33)

Jehol
• 1 AA, 1 Artillery, 2 Infantry (Manchuria)

SZ31
• 2 Aircraft Carriers
• 1 Battleship

Kwangsi
• Used air craft

SZ31
• 2 Fighters (from Korea + Japan) when needed

Placements:
• 3 Transports in SZ6

Income:

$41 Income
$4 Extra
= $45

Japan 2
Purchase new units

• 1 Naval Base in French Indo China
• 1 Destroyer
• 3 Transports

Combat Movement

Yunnan (if needed, otherwise target Malaya)
• 2 Infantry (Shan State)
• 1 Infantry (French Indo China)
• 1 Mechanized Infantry (Anhwe)
• 6 Tactical Bombers
• 6 Fighters (assuming 1 died against UK BB)
• 2 Bombers

Java (Battleship + Cruiser)
• 1 Tank (Philippines)
• 1 Infantry (Palau Islands)

Celebes
• 1 Artillery (Philippines)

Sumatra (Full Carrier + Destroyer)
• 1 Infantry (Borneo)
• 1 Artillery (Borneo)

Chinese Territories (Suiyuyan, Hopei, Kweichow, Hunan)
• 3 Artillery
• 8 Infantry

UK / ANZAC fleets when possible instead of guarding transports

Noncombat movement

SZ 30
• 2 Aircraft Carriers
• 1 Battleship

SZ 6
• 1 Cruiser (S35)

SZ36
• 3 Loaded Transports (Unload FIC)

Shan State
• All planes

Place new units

• Transport in SZ6
• Factory in French Indo China
• Naval Base in French Indo China

Collect Income

$56 Income
$5 Island Bonus
= $61

Japan 3
Purchase new units

Combat Movement

India (5 transports supported by 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer)
• 1 Tank (Sumatra)
• 5 Infantry (French Indo China, Sumatra, Java)
• 4 Artillery (French Indo China, Sumatra, Java)
• 6 Tactical Bombers (Shan State)
• 6 Fighters (Shan State)
• 2 Bombers (Shan State)

Likely UK Forces: 2 Fighters, 1 Tactical, 15 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 2 AA Guns
According to my battle calculations, that gives me 97.3% to win.

Hawaii (3 Transport, 1 Carrier, 1 Cruiser)
• 6 Infantry (Korea)
• 2 Fighters
• 2 Tactical Bombers

Chinese Territories (Kansu, Shensi, Szechwan, Yunnan)
• 3 Artillery
• 8 Infantry (minus casualties J2)

Noncombat movement

SZ 9
• 1 Destroyer (S6)

SZ 12
• 1 Battleship (S30)

SZ 11
• 1 Carrier (S30)

Shan State
• All planes

Place new units

Collect Income

$63 Income
$5 Island Bonus
$10 City Bonus
$ 9 UK Bonus
= $87

Quirky Turtle, very good to point this out! I will bring 1 cruiser to S6 in J2 + build a destroyer. I could keep 1 or 2 fighters in Japan that then fight in sea battle of Hawaii, depending on how much fighters there are stationed.

[Quirky Turtle]

Back on topic
I agree with most of the comments here but love the idea and look forward to try this cripple the us early and end them in panic mode as there is no fleet left.

@Afrikakorps said in Pearl Harbour Attack:

I hope (and assume) my pearl harbour attack with german sub in atlantic and philippines invasion will influence the USA to be more defensive in the first two turns, building up his fleet (having lost 3/4 of his fleets in J1). This gives me breathing space to manoeuvre my fleet and have unprotected transports build in S6.

One crucial thing to note US can still attack your unprotected transports. 1 fighter from hawaii flies to SZ6 and lands on the carrier from SZ10 in SZ7 while the fighter that was on the carrier lands in Hawaii.
No thread of a landing as the transports are gone so no need to panic and just slow build up while japan loses a build and since they don’t take Hawaii miss the naval range to be effective.
This has almost cost me a game once. It was due to the forgiving nature of my opponents that they let me correct the mistake after having spotted my error after combat had been conducted.

[Tizkit]

Here are some other wrinkles that come to mind that need to be wrestled with. #3 is probably the hardest to work around.

1. Japan Air Units: For air units to hit India on J3, you need to take and hold one of Yunnan or Shan State on J1 and keep it until J2. This isn’t realistic since China can overwhelm Yunnan on C1 and UK can overwhelm Shan State on UK1. (you could bypass this with an airbase on FIC/Kwangsi on J2, but that will cost you 2 transports headed for Hawaii.)
2. India Blockers: To get the 3 transports purchased on J1 to India on J3 requires SZ37 be open and one of SZ38/SZ41 be open. It will be tricky for your stripped-down southern fleet to hold two sea zones from getting cleared and a blocker slipping in. You need to survive potentially:
   • UK -> 2 destroyers, 1 cruiser, 2 fighters, 1 tactical
   • ANZAC -> 3 fighters, 1 destroyer, 1 cruiser
   • France -> 1 destroyer
3. West India UK2 Retreat: The UK player can stall by retreating to West India on UK2. Assuming the UK1 purchase was 3 infantry and 2 artillery (not uncommon) UK could easily have 12 infantry, 3 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 tactical on West India without even talking about transported units or planes from the Med. That’s more than enough to re-take India on UK3 from the 12 ground units landing there.

[Afrikakorps]

Good points. I want to take out the Money Islands + India + lock the burma road as soon as possible, the rest is less important. This gambit is too easily prevented by the Allies and is more likely to result in a swift break down of Japan, as I am especially afraid of #2.

I will not do Pearl Harbour.

I will first focus 100% on getting the money islands and India, then go for either Sydney or Honolulu.

J1: 3 Transports
J2: Minor, Air, Naval FIC
J3: (India Crush), 3 Mech + start building carriers to counter USA

Maybe keep 1 battleship, 2 destroyer and 2 fighters in Japan to counter an early strike now Hawaiian fleet is alive and USA likely more aggressive.

This reinforces the southern fleet with 2 full carriers, 1 cruiser and 1 submarine.

Then 2 infantry from Siam can take FIC, making the attack on Yunnan stronger with 1 infantry, giving me at least a counter attack with most of my planes and 2 infantry + 1 mech on Yunnan J2. When Yunnan is not retaken, I do not need an airbare there in J2 and could build my #4 carrier in Japan.

[Afrikakorps]

Update on the game, which was the fastest and most convincing Axis win we had since playing Allies and Allies over last 6 years, Japan took Hawaii in J7 (India in J4).

I could not resist the experience of doing a Pearl Harbour so decided go for a more conservative slow but steady approach for Japan as I indeed became convinced J3 India + Pearl Harbour can easily be stopped by Allied play. I did take Shan State with 1 infantry to leave the option open, but UK retook it in UK1.

J1: 2 transports, 1 mic in shantung
J2: 3 mech, 1 mic in kiangsu (FIC could be take by UK), 1 carrier
J3: 1 naval base FIC, 2 carriers, 4 fighters
J4 onwards: tanks/mechs 2 chinese MIC + carriers and air

I did the all out J1 as I described in my plan of action. UK + ANZAC both very aggressive taking money islands, but I could therefore destroy their fleets in J2 and still take those islands. I send my transports to Caroline Islands J2 together with main fleet, pressuring ANZAC in defensive mode, with USA in pursuit. Then J3 I combined fleet at FIC (taking Malaya) and J4 I took India. All the time I had most of my air destroying China (Siberians in J2) and China was dead in J6.

Germany and Italy also very succesful. UK made a mistake with not doing Taranto and building factory in Egypt, I took Trans-Jordan I1 and Egypt in I2. It had taked Egypt was 1 tank left, then I send 3 german bombers to help defend it. UK could attack with 1 tactical, 2 fighters and 1 infantry. 2 Bombers hit and secure Egypt for the Axis! German started to reinforce it with 2 inf and air the turns after to hold it against UK attacks.

G1: 2 subs, 1 bomber
G2: 8 tanks, 2 mech, bombers
G3: 10 mech, bombers
G4 onwards: some infantry, artillery and bombers

Germany had a very miserable G1, most fleet attacks dying without succes. Also 110 was very painful, losing some air. I sticked to my plan of G3DOW, concentrated my troops and was able to take Moscow in G6 because of Russian defensive mindset in Ukraine + Leningrad, so I could bypass. In G7 I had stalingrad, moscow and egypt and would have take Leningrad in G8.

Italy had 25 IPC throughout the game. Isolated in Egypt but in firm control.

I was helped that both my allies played their nations for first time again since a long time, so had to figure out again how they worked. Also their teamwork could have been stronger, especially in pacific. I did make sure UK had no fleet throughout the game so it was difficult for USA to have can opening allies.

[taamvan]

Great job, merry Christmas.

[DizzKneeLand33]

@CWO-Marc said in Pearl Harbour Attack:

@taamvan said in Pearl Harbour Attack:

Love it. While chess isn’t my personal favorite, it is a model for wargaming. Its amazing that with such a limited set of starting options and pieces, that the game has a tremendous following and has, in all its variants, for centuries.

Some people believe that the sides in chess are equal. This is a misconception; the players start with symmetrical forces, but the White player has + one more unit of initiative, and the Black player has + one more piece of information (what White did). This is a good analogy to our favorite game, and is the starting point for all “asymmetrical” wargames, where the players share common units types and resources, but are each different and unique.

I once heard about a Russian chess grandmaster (I forget who, so I’ll call him So-and-So) who was asked whether he prefers to play the white or black pieces. He answered: “It makes no difference to me. When I play white, I win because I play first. When I play black, I win because I am So-and-So.”

That was Efim Bogoljubov, father of the Bogo-Indian Defense. The quote definitely fit his temperament. :)

[Afrikakorps]

G1: 2 subs, 1 bomber
G2: 8 tanks, 2 mech, bombers
G3: 10 mech, bombers
G4 onwards: some infantry, artillery and bombers (Western Front defence)

Goal: Dark Skies, swarm the Med with Luftwaffe to help Italy, bring 20 fast movers to Russian front before G4 so they can be overpowered. Bomb Russian factories back to stone age.

Most targeted unit: UK ships.

J1: 2 transports, 1 mic in shantung
J2: 3 mech, 1 mic in kiangsu (FIC could be take by UK), 1 carrier
J3: 1 naval base FIC, 2 carriers, 4 fighters
J4 onwards: tanks/mechs 2 chinese MIC + carriers and air

Goal: Conquer China completely and keep it with 2 early factories and steady flow of reinforcements, then invade Russia to reinforce German push. Take the initiative by all out J1 incl. Pearl Harbour, splitting fleet in two groups, then go for either Sydney or India based on Allied play. Get money islands asap to get to same economic level as USA. Start pumping carriers from J2 onwards. Keep India and ANZAC as small as possible to isolate USA.

Most targeted unit: Chinese Infantry.

I1: tank and mech
I2: tanks
I3: transport, troops for Africa
I4: mic in Egypt, troops for Africa

Provide German with mechanized can opening army (first 2 buys), reinforcing the starting 2 mainland tanks. Survive in Africa while German airforce flies in to destroy the British, so they can start their offensive I2 or I3 when UK is weakened and can be defeated. After Germans gave them a kickstart in NO, focus on keeping Egypt and in best case scenario start pushing Middle East/Africa.

Most targeted: weak spots in Russian defence.

Overal Axis focus: Egypt and Yunnan, all other are less important.