2018 Playoffs Adam (Allies) vs Farmboy (Axis) BM

Sorry, another question. If I attack your fleet at 21 and we get to a point where you are down to BB and air and my surviving subs roll more than 2 hits do you lose the transports then or does it only happen after I have won the battle. I’m wondering if there is a situation where I can retreat surviving units but because of the subs still hit your transports.

@Adam514 Yeah, sorry, I need to think about this move a bit more today.
Just to clarify, if I end up in a situation where you have most of your air , 2 battleships, 3 cruisers and a destroyer and my surviving subs get 7 hits, that would then take out the surface ships and the transports. At the end of that round, I might still have BB and a few air left and you would still have air. In that case, I would still be able to retreat?

I know it is not particularly likely. I have just been playtesting that combat a few times and felt like a situation like this arose.

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Japanese round 20

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 20

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 3 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Caucasus
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        1 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Urals
              Japanese take Urals from Russians
        1 infantry moved from India to West India
              Japanese take West India from UK_Pacific
        1 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Celebes to 21 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Java to 21 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from French Indo China to 21 Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Japan to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
              Japanese take 22 Sea Zone from Americans
        1 destroyer moved from 22 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 43 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 37 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 20 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 37 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 35 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 37 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

This might be a ridiculous choice on my part, but I decided to go for it. I saved it here but I think its a fairly safe bet that you would max the scramble, so I will do the other combats and head to my first roll here.

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Japanese round 20

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 20

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 3 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Caucasus
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        1 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Urals
              Japanese take Urals from Russians
        1 infantry moved from India to West India
              Japanese take West India from UK_Pacific
        1 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Celebes to 21 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Java to 21 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from French Indo China to 21 Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Japan to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
              Japanese take 22 Sea Zone from Americans
        1 destroyer moved from 22 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 43 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 37 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 20 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 37 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 35 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 37 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese
        Americans scrambles 3 units out of Guam to defend against the attack in 21 Sea Zone
        Battle in Caucasus
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus
            Japanese win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Volgograd
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Volgograd, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Volgograd, round 3 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Volgograd
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Volgograd, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Volgograd, round 5 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Volgograd
            Japanese win, taking Volgograd from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 2 battleships, 1 bomber, 12 carriers, 5 destroyers, 19 fighters, 16 submarines and 8 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 battleship; Americans defend with 1 artillery, 1 battleship, 12 carriers, 3 cruisers, 6 destroyers, 24 fighters, 1 infantry, 3 submarines and 1 transport; ANZAC defend with 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport
                Japanese roll dice for 16 submarines in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/16 hits, 5.33 expected hits

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians : 0.33
Japanese : -7.00

Savegame

Just one hit with the sub. lol

I saved it here but as I think its safe to assume you will take that on a BB, I will continue to the next set of rolls before waiting.

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Japanese round 20

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 20

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 3 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Caucasus
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        1 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Urals
              Japanese take Urals from Russians
        1 infantry moved from India to West India
              Japanese take West India from UK_Pacific
        1 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Volgograd
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Celebes to 21 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Java to 21 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from French Indo China to 21 Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Japan to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
              Japanese take 22 Sea Zone from Americans
        1 destroyer moved from 22 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 43 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 37 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 20 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 37 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 35 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 37 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 11 carriers, 1 destroyer, 13 fighters, 12 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese
        Americans scrambles 3 units out of Guam to defend against the attack in 21 Sea Zone
        Battle in Caucasus
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus
            Japanese win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Volgograd
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Volgograd, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Volgograd, round 3 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Volgograd
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Volgograd, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Volgograd, round 5 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Volgograd, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Volgograd
            Japanese win, taking Volgograd from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 2 battleships, 1 bomber, 12 carriers, 5 destroyers, 19 fighters, 16 submarines and 8 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 battleship; Americans defend with 1 artillery, 1 battleship, 12 carriers, 3 cruisers, 6 destroyers, 24 fighters, 1 infantry, 3 submarines and 1 transport; ANZAC defend with 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport
                Japanese roll dice for 16 submarines in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/16 hits, 5.33 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                Japanese roll dice for 2 battleships, 1 bomber, 12 carriers, 5 destroyers, 19 fighters and 8 tactical_bombers in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 19/35 hits, 18.50 expected hits

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians : 0.33
Japanese : -6.50

Savegame

a bit better with the rest of the fleet. I hope I didn’t presume to much with the sub hit or the scramble. Let me know the rest of the OOL

@JDOW it certainly could. The odds for me are 45%. I don’t think my position in the game is terrible but I think 45% odds might be better than my chances otherwise against Adam.

A decisive win for him probably settles it I think. A decisive win for me certainly helps my chances.

While his odds were a bit better, the number of units I would have surviving in a win was also better (and in a couple of practice rounds I ended up with 25+ units left) so it seemed like a fun gamble taht could payoff well. Or not.

I have to now hope his roll is about as poor as mine.

you had 31 hits (three above to my 4 below). I have to think for a second about whether its worth continuing or whether I can viably retreat.

I’m retreating, but just have to figure out the configuration of forces that will retreat.

A casualty choice I can go with (destroying 16 subs and 5 destroyers and then 8 tilts to the BB and the carriers appears to still give me the odds if you attack me after (if I add 2 carriers and a destroyer) despite you having both greater numbers and attack power. It doesn’t seem right, but I will go with it and then I might edit my casualties after to adjust.

Some of the air yes but I don’t think I can retreat the fleet and survive. But since you asked, I will check.

that seems pretty certain for you if I do since I can’t block the other fleet. Sorry for the delay on this. Should be done in a few minutes.