It’s possible there is some confusion with the Bulgarian Fighter’s movement. Unfortunately Bulgaria does not border sz 15 (the European part of Turkey is in the way) which means that there is in fact no German fighter that can attack Egypt on G1. The fighters in Bulgaria and Ukraine are both 4 moves away. Alas!
It’s 3 moves for the Bulgaria fighter to attack into sz17 and kill the British destroyer from the air, but it can only do this if a carrier is purchased, so the Fighter could potentially land in sz15 (on the carrier deck). Same deal with the Ukraine fighter, though that fighter could be killed on R1, if the Russians are out for blood, so you can’t really count on it for G1 plans.
If testing solo, you might enjoy playing TripleA. You can face off against the HardAI, which is not as competent as a human opponent, but still pretty decent, and can be helpful for showing certain things like territory connections where the physical map is sometimes poorly drawn. The Bulgaria situation being a good example :)
As for the sz 5 Baltic hit by Russian air, the odds are strong 90% to win, but there is also a fairly strong likelihood that one Russian fighter will die in the process. Average units left for the attacker is somewhere around 1.5, but the .5 doesn’t do you any good, since there is no such thing as half a fighter unit in A&A. And even if the second fighter does live, it has to land in Karelia, where it is certain to die on G1 ;)
So its a question of whether you think the Russians can manage the Eastern front on R2 with only one fighter, or if the TUV trade is really worth it for your warplan as Allies long term. The risk is not in the battle per se, but in the aftermath on R2 or R3, where being down a fighter in the territory trading game can make things a lot more challenging for the Russians.