One basic balance change would be to place the Axis as the default winner rather than the allies. I would use a 2 trigger system to determine Axis victory
1. Expansion trigger - Axis need to take 10 or 11 cities to qualify. This is basically the historical limit of Axis expansion (10) or +1 (11 cities).
2. Production level - Must maintain a certain amount of production by a certain turn.
For the second piece this means functioning factories. For example, Japan surrenders on any turn that ends with Japan having less than 20 factory slots. (2 fully functional major factories.) This would reasonably approximate the historical point when Japan did surrender. To achieve it you would have to reduce Japans point total to below its starting point and bring Japan under Strategic bombing. (or successfully invade Japan’s home island.)
A similar rule against Italy would cause Italy surrender on any Italian turn ending with Turin or Rome is in allied hands. This would very much simulate the limited support Italy had for this conflict. This is especially true since German troops could not help to retake the space if lost before the Italian surrender would trigger.
A victory system like this would place to burden of attack on the Axis initially but then shift that burden to the allies in the second stage of the war.
I would alter the lend lease rules to be new points to the allies. For example, on turn 3 place 1d6 in each UK convoy zone set to 1. These points are added to each UK nation. (SO +1 canada, +3 or 4 to UK, + 3 FEC) The US can not do any form of Lend lease by the current rules. On turn 4 place 2 dice in the Murmansk convoy zone. On turn 5 and onwards increase the value of the dice by 1 per turn. For historical purposes a dice could be placed in Persia for the Russians as well that increases in the same manner.
This would eventually lead to the Axis defeat, however now all they have to do is last until a certain point and still win the game. Balancing then becomes setting this turn correctly (and the levels of lend lease) to reward good play by the Axis or the Ally player.
